On The Extrapolation With The Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method
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On The Extrapolation With The Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method
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Author : Mr.Tommaso Di Fonzo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-06-01
On The Extrapolation With The Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method written by Mr.Tommaso Di Fonzo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Statistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.
Quarterly National Accounts Manual
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Author : Mr.Adriaan M. Bloem
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2001-05-10
Quarterly National Accounts Manual written by Mr.Adriaan M. Bloem and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This Manual provides guidance to compilers of national accounts on the concepts, data sources, and compilation methods required for development of a system of quarterly national accounts. More and more countries are recognizing that quarterly national accounts are an essential tool for management and analysis of their economy. The Manual is intended particularly for compilers who already have a knowledge of annual national accounting concepts and methods, and provides techniques for the development of a consistent time series of annual and quarterly accounts. It serves as acomplement to the System of National Accounts 1993, which has only a limited discussion of quarterly accounts, and will also prove useful as a tool for sophisticated users of quarterly national accounts.
Quarterly National Accounts Manual 2017 Edition
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Author : Mr.Kwangwon Lee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-11-06
Quarterly National Accounts Manual 2017 Edition written by Mr.Kwangwon Lee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The Quarterly National Accounts Manual (the Manual) provides conceptual and practical guidance for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA) statistics. The Manual offers a comprehensive review of data sources, statistical methods, and compilation techniques to derive official estimates of quarterly GDP. The new edition—which upgrades the first edition, published in 2001—improves and expands the previous content based on recent methodological advances, best country practices, and suggestions received from QNA compilers and experts.
New Estimates For Direction Of Trade Statistics
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Author : Mr.Marco Marini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-24
New Estimates For Direction Of Trade Statistics written by Mr.Marco Marini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators
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Author : Mr.Marco Marini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-23
Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators written by Mr.Marco Marini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or “nowcast”) low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.
How To De Dollarize Financial Systems In The Caucasus And Central Asia
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Author : Mr.Sami Ben Naceur
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-09-23
How To De Dollarize Financial Systems In The Caucasus And Central Asia written by Mr.Sami Ben Naceur and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region are among the highest in the world, with adverse consequences for macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Using dynamic panel data models, we find that foreign exchange deposits and loans in the CCA are mainly driven by volatile inflation and exchange rates, low financial depth, and asymmetric exchange rate policies biased toward depreciation. Although there is no unique formula for success, empirical studies and cross-country experiences suggest that credible monetary and exchange rate frameworks, low and stable inflation, and deep domestic financial markets are essential ingredients of any de-dollarization strategy. In implementation, policymakers need to consider proper sequencing of policies, effective communication as well as risks from potential financial disintermediation and instability, and/or capital flight.
Japan
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-03-17
Japan written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes data module provides an assessment of Japan’s macroeconomic statistics against the Special Data Dissemination Standard, complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework, July 2003 version. The assessment reveals that the data-producing agencies in Japan adhere to the principle of objectivity in the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics. They demonstrate professionalism and are transparent in their policies and practices. Data are protected by strict measures of confidentiality throughout the data-producing agencies.
Shifting The Beveridge Curve
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Author : Ms.Elva Bova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-12
Shifting The Beveridge Curve written by Ms.Elva Bova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores conditions and policies that could affect the matching between labor demand and supply. We identify shifts in the Beveridge curves for 12 OECD countries between 2000Q1 and 2013Q4 using three complementary methodologies and analyze the short-run determinants of these shifts by means of limited-dependent variable models. We find that labor force growth as well as employment protection legislation reduce the likelihood of an outward shift in the Beveridge curve,. Our findings also show that the matching process is more difficult the higher the share of employees with intermediate levels of education in the labor force and when long-term unemployment is more pronounced. Policies which could facilitate labor market matching include active labor market policies, such as incentives for start-up and job sharing programs. Passive labor market policies, such as unemployment benefits, as well as labor taxation render matching signficantly more difficult.
Macroeconomic Effects Of Reforms On Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia And The Uk
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-10-11
Macroeconomic Effects Of Reforms On Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia And The Uk written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-11 with Business & Economics categories.
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Survey Of Current Business
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Survey Of Current Business written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Commercial statistics categories.