On The Optimality Of Expert Adjusted Forecasts
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On The Optimality Of Expert Adjusted Forecasts
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Author : Philip Hans Franses
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
On The Optimality Of Expert Adjusted Forecasts written by Philip Hans Franses and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Economic forecasting categories.
On The Optimality Of Expert Adjusted Forecast
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Author : Philip Hans Franses
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
On The Optimality Of Expert Adjusted Forecast written by Philip Hans Franses and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Altruism categories.
Expert Adjustments Of Model Forecasts
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Author : Philip Hans Franses
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2014-10-09
Expert Adjustments Of Model Forecasts written by Philip Hans Franses and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.
Evaluating Econometric Models And Expert Intuition
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Author : Rianne Legerstee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Evaluating Econometric Models And Expert Intuition written by Rianne Legerstee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This thesis is about forecasting situations which involve econometric models and expert intuition. The first three chapters are about what it is that experts do when they adjust statistical model forecasts and what might improve that adjustment behavior. It is investigated how expert forecasts are related to model forecasts, how this potential relation is influenced by other factors and how it influences forecast accuracy, how feedback influences forecasting behavior and accuracy and which loss function is associated with experts' forecasts. The final chapter focuses on how to make use in an optimal way of multiple forecasts produced by multiple experts for one and the same event. It is found that potential disagreement amongst forecasters can have predictive value, especially when used in Markov regime-switching models.
Expert Political Judgment
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Political Science categories.
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Profit From Your Forecasting Software
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Author : Paul Goodwin
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-04-10
Profit From Your Forecasting Software written by Paul Goodwin and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-10 with Computers categories.
Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.
Dynamics Of Expert Adjustment To Model Based Forecasts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Dynamics Of Expert Adjustment To Model Based Forecasts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Industrial Engineering Innovative Networks
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Author : Suresh P. Sethi
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-01-03
Industrial Engineering Innovative Networks written by Suresh P. Sethi and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-03 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The Spanish Conference of Industrial Engineering /Ingeniería de Organización Industrial (CIO) is an annual meeting promoted by Asociación para el Desarrollo de la Ingeniería de Organización/ Industrial Engineers Association (ADINGOR). The aim of CIO is to establish a forum for the open and free exchange of ideas, opinions and academic experiences about research, technology transfer or successful business experiences in the field of Industrial Engineering. The Scientific Committee is composed by 68 international referees and we foresee the attendance of some 200 people from more than 15 countries and following the rotation of venue and organization between various Spanish universities, the 2011 Conference will be the fifteenth National Conference and the fifth International Conference in Cartagena. During three days the 2011 Conference will include the participation of European and other foreign countries researchers and practitioners that will presenting communications, reproduced in this volume, on a range of topics including: Production and Operations Business Management Supply Chain Management Economic environment Technological and Organizational Innovation and Management and Innovation in Education The Conference on Industrial Engineering (CIO) and its proceedings are an excellent platform for the dissemination of the outputs of the scientific projects developed in the frame of the European, national or regional Research and Development plans.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2011-06-29
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Experts And Consensus In Social Science
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Author : Carlo Martini
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-09-11
Experts And Consensus In Social Science written by Carlo Martini and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-11 with Philosophy categories.
This book brings together the research of philosophers, sociologists, and social scientists. It examines those areas of scientific practice where reliance on the subjective judgment of experts and practitioners is the main source of useful knowledge to address and possibly, bring solutions to social problems. A common phenomenon in applications of science is that objective evidence does not point to a single answer or solution, to a problem. Reliance on subjective judgment, then, becomes necessary, despite the known fact that hunches, even those of putative experts, often provide information that is not very accurate, and that experts are prone to fallacies and biases. The book looks at how experts reach consensus in the social sciences, and which experts are relevant to which problems. It aims to answer many questions, the main one being: Can we start building a normative theory of expertise on the basis of the evidence that social scientists, sociologists and philosophers have uncovered?