Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantification In Water Resources Modeling
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Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantification In Water Resources Modeling
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Author : Philippe Renard
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2020-04-22
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantification In Water Resources Modeling written by Philippe Renard and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-22 with categories.
Numerical models of flow and transport processes are heavily employed in the fields of surface, soil, and groundwater hydrology. They are used to interpret field observations, analyze complex and coupled processes, or to support decision making related to large societal issues such as the water-energy nexus or sustainable water management and food production. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are two key features of modern science-based predictions. When applied to water resources, these tasks must cope with many degrees of freedom and large datasets. Both are challenging and require novel theoretical and computational approaches to handle complex models with large number of unknown parameters.
Model Calibration And Parameter Estimation
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Author : Ne-Zheng Sun
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-07-01
Model Calibration And Parameter Estimation written by Ne-Zheng Sun and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-01 with Mathematics categories.
This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to these challenging topics such as model calibration, parameter estimation, reliability assessment, and data collection design. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get familiar with advanced methods for modeling complex systems. Algorithms for mathematical tools used in this book, such as numerical optimization, automatic differentiation, adaptive parameterization, hierarchical Bayesian, metamodeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, are covered in details. This book can be used as a reference for graduate and upper level undergraduate students majoring in environmental engineering, hydrology, and geosciences. It also serves as an essential reference book for professionals such as petroleum engineers, mining engineers, chemists, mechanical engineers, biologists, biology and medical engineering, applied mathematicians, and others who perform mathematical modeling.
Uncertainty And Forecasting Of Water Quality
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Author : M.B. Beck
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Uncertainty And Forecasting Of Water Quality written by M.B. Beck and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Since the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis began its study of water quality modeling and management in 1977, it has been interested in the relations between uncertainty and the problems of model calibration and prediction. The work has focused on the theme of modeling poorly defined environmental systems, a principal topic of the effort devoted to environmental quality control and management. Accounting for the effects of uncertainty was also of central concern to our two case studies of lake eutrophication management, one dealing with Lake Balaton in Hungary and the other with several Austrian lake systems. Thus, in November 1979 we held a meeting at Laxenburg to discuss recent method ological developments in addressing problems associated with uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. This book is based on the proceedings of that meeting. The last few years have seen an increase in awareness of the issue of uncertainty in water quality and ecological modeling. This book is relevant not only to contemporary issues but also to those of the future. A lack of field data will not always be the dominant problem for water quality modeling and management; more sophisticated measuring techniques and more comprehensive monitoring networks will come to be more widely applied. Rather, the important problems of the future are much more likely to emerge from the enhanced facility of data processing and to concern the meaningful interpretation, assimilation., and use of the information thus obtained.
Stochastic Modeling And Risk Management For Water Resources Systems Under Changing Climatic Conditions
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Author : Zhong Li
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Stochastic Modeling And Risk Management For Water Resources Systems Under Changing Climatic Conditions written by Zhong Li and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Water resources are indispensable for the sustainable development of the human society. A variety of hydrological modeling and water resources management tools based on simulation and optimization have been developed to address the current water issues worldwide. However, there are many challenges arising from climate change, human disturbances and enormous uncertainties and complexities. Thus, there is a global need for advanced methodologies that can support the modeling and management of water resources systems in an effective and efficient way. In this dissertation research, a spectrum of methods have been developed to deal with the stochastic modeling and risk-based management problems for water resources systems. These methods include: (i) a Stepwise Clustered Hydrological Inference (SCHI) model that can establish the complex nonlinear relationships between climatic conditions and streamflow for hydrological forecasting; (ii) a flexible and effective hydro-climatic modeling framework based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and stepwise cluster analysis for hydrological modeling under the changing climatic conditions; (iii) a Stepwise-cluster-analysis-based Probabilistic Collocation Expansion (SPCE) method for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series; (iv) a hydrologic frequency analysis framework based on change point analysis and Bayesian parameter estimation to deal with the nonstationarity and uncertainties in hydrological risk analysis; (v) an Interval-parameter Two-stage Fuzzy Stochastic Integer Programming (ITFSIP) model for risk-based flood diversion management under multiple uncertainties. The proposed methods have been applied to the Xiangxi River Watershed in China and the Grand River Watershed in Canada, in order to demonstrate their capabilities and performances in precipitation-runoff modeling, climate change impact analysis, uncertainty quantification, frequency analysis, and systematic water resources and risk management. The major contribution of this research lies in the development of innovative approaches for tackling various uncertainties and complexities in the hydrological cycle and water resources systems. This research can provide scientific and practical bases for robust hydrological modeling and reliable water resources management.
Physically Based Parameter Estimation Methods For Hydrological Models
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Author : Evison Kapangaziwiri
language : en
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release Date : 2011-06
Physically Based Parameter Estimation Methods For Hydrological Models written by Evison Kapangaziwiri and has been published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06 with categories.
Reliable quantification of available water resources is an important prerequisite for sustainable management and development. However, the data required for adequate resource estimation are usually not available due to inadequate and shrinking measurement networks. Hydrologic models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of stream flow and regionalisation has been the traditional approach to model application in poorly gauged basins. The classical approach to regionalization is to calibrate against naturalized observed data, identify hydrologically similar basins, and then transfer calibrated parameter sets to the ungauged basins. One of the problems related to this approach is the relatively few basins for calibration in southern Africa (due to data quality and availability problems), resulting in huge uncertainties in the prediction process. This study proposes an a priori process to directly estimate parameters of the Pitman monthly rainfall runoff model based on physical basin characteristics. The approach is tested on selected basins in southern African.
Modelling Aspects Of Water Framework Directive Implementation
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Author : Peter A. Vanrolleghem
language : en
Publisher: IWA Publishing
Release Date : 2010-04-30
Modelling Aspects Of Water Framework Directive Implementation written by Peter A. Vanrolleghem and has been published by IWA Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-04-30 with Science categories.
Special Offer: Water Framework Directive Series Set. To buy all four titles including Volume 3 and save £100, visit: http://iwapublishing.com/books/9781780400013/water-framework-directive-series-set Modelling Aspects of Water Framework Directive Implementation: Volume 1 is a concrete outcome from the Harmoni-CA concerted action as part of a 4-volume series of Guidance Reports that guide water professionals through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive, with a focus on the use of ICT-tools (and in particular modelling). They are complementary to the Guidance Documents produced by the EU Directorate General for Environment. Water resources planning and management and the development of appropriate policies require methodologies and tools that are able to support systematic, integrative and multidisciplinary assessments at various scales. It also requires the quantification of various uncertainties in both data and models, and the incorporation of stakeholders participation and institutional mechanisms into the various tools and risk assessment methodologies, to help decision makers understand and evaluate alternative measures and decisions. The other three volumes in the Water Framework Directive Series are: Water Framework Directive: Model supported Implementation - A Water Manager’s Guide edited by Fred Hattermann and Zbigniew W Kundzewicz Integrated Assessment for WFD implementation: Data, economic and human dimension - Volume 2, edited by Peter A. Vanrolleghem Decision support for WFD implementation - Volume 3, edited by Peter A. Vanrolleghem. Visit the IWA WaterWiki to read and share material related to this title: http://www.iwawaterwiki.org/xwiki/bin/view/Articles/IntegratedAssessmentforWaterFrameworkDirectiveImplementation
Using Prediction Uncertainty Analysis To Design Hydrologic Monitoring Networks
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Author : Michael N Fienen
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2014-08-01
Using Prediction Uncertainty Analysis To Design Hydrologic Monitoring Networks written by Michael N Fienen and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-01 with categories.
The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.
Grey Optimization For Uncertainty Modeling In Water Resources Systems
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Author : Subhankar Karmakar
language : en
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release Date : 2009-12
Grey Optimization For Uncertainty Modeling In Water Resources Systems written by Subhankar Karmakar and has been published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12 with categories.
In this study, methodologies for modeling grey uncertainty in water resources systems are developed, specifically for the problems in two identified areas in water resources: waste load allocation in streams and floodplain planning. A water resources system is associated with some degree of uncertainty, due to randomness of hydrologic and hydraulic parameters, imprecision and subjectivity in management goals, inappropriateness in model selection, inexactness of different input parameters for inadequacy of data, etc. Uncertainty due to randomness of input parameters could be modeled by the probabilistic models, when probability distributions of the parameters may be estimated. Uncertainties due to imprecision in the management problem may be addressed by the fuzzy decision models. In addition, some parameters in any water resources problems need to be addressed as grey parameters, due to inadequate data for an accurate estimation but with known extreme bounds of the parameter values. Such inexactness or grey uncertainty in the model parameters can be addressed by the inexact or grey optimization models, representing the parameters as interval grey numbers. The research study presented in this thesis deals with the development of grey and fuzzy optimization models, and the combination of the two for water resources systems decision-making. Three grey fuzzy optimization models for waste load allocation, namely (i) Grey Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (GFWLAM), (ii) two-phase GFWLAM and (iii) multiobjective GFWLAM, and a Grey Integer Programming (GIP) model for floodplain planning, are developed in this study. The Grey Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (GFWLAM) for water quality management of river system addresses uncertainty in the membership functions for imprecisely stated management goals of the Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. To address the imprecision in fixing the boundaries of membership functions (also known as membership parameters), the mem.
Applied Groundwater Modeling
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Author : Mary P. Anderson
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2015-08-13
Applied Groundwater Modeling written by Mary P. Anderson and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-13 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This second edition is extensively revised throughout with expanded discussion of modeling fundamentals and coverage of advances in model calibration and uncertainty analysis that are revolutionizing the science of groundwater modeling. The text is intended for undergraduate and graduate level courses in applied groundwater modeling and as a comprehensive reference for environmental consultants and scientists/engineers in industry and governmental agencies. Explains how to formulate a conceptual model of a groundwater system and translate it into a numerical model Demonstrates how modeling concepts, including boundary conditions, are implemented in two groundwater flow codes-- MODFLOW (for finite differences) and FEFLOW (for finite elements) Discusses particle tracking methods and codes for flowpath analysis and advective transport of contaminants Summarizes parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis approaches using the code PEST to illustrate how concepts are implemented Discusses modeling ethics and preparation of the modeling report Includes Boxes that amplify and supplement topics covered in the text Each chapter presents lists of common modeling errors and problem sets that illustrate concepts
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Assessment In Hydrological Modelling
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Author : Roberta-Serena Blasone
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Assessment In Hydrological Modelling written by Roberta-Serena Blasone and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.