Politics Paradigms And Intelligence Failures
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Politics Paradigms And Intelligence Failures
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Author : Ofira Seliktar
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-05-20
Politics Paradigms And Intelligence Failures written by Ofira Seliktar and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-20 with Political Science categories.
Washington's failure to foresee the collapse of its superpower rival ranks high in the pantheon of predictive failures. The question of who got what right or wrong has been intertwined with the deeper issue of "who won" the Cold War. Like the disputes over "who lost" China and Iran, this debate has been fought out along ideological and partisan lines, with conservatives claiming credit for the Evil Empire's demise and liberals arguing that the causes were internal to the Soviet Union. The intelligence community has come in for harsh criticism for overestimating Soviet strength and overlooking the symptoms of crisis; the discipline of "Sovietology" has dissolved into acrimonious irrelevance. Drawing on declassified documents, interviews, and careful analysis of contemporaneous literature, this book offers the first systematic analysis of this predictive failure at the paradigmatic, foreign policy, and intelligence levels. Although it is focused on the Soviet case, it offers lessons that are both timely and necessary.
The Politics Of Intelligence And American Wars With Iraq
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Author : Ofira Seliktar
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan
Release Date : 2008-01-15
The Politics Of Intelligence And American Wars With Iraq written by Ofira Seliktar and has been published by Palgrave MacMillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-01-15 with History categories.
Coming at the heels of September 11, Operation Iraqi Freedom has focused the limelight on the way in which the United States predicts and manages political change. The failure to find WMD and more important, the continued violence in Iraq instead of the hoped for democracy, has engender an acrimonious debate on the motives of the Bush administration and its uses or misuses of intelligence. The question of who got what right or wrong has been fought out along ideological, and partisan lines, with supporters claiming that, given what was known about Saddam Hussein, the decision to change his regime was justified and detractors arguing that a group of largely Jewish neoconservatives, acting on behalf of Israel, manipulated intelligence in order to trick the United States into an unnecessary and costly war. The book provides a systematic and objective analysis of the problems that faced American intelligence in deciphering the behavior of the highly secretive and confusing Iraq regime and its enigmatic leader.
Politics Paradigms And Intelligence Failures Why So Few Predicted The Collapse Of The Soviet Union
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Author : Ofira Seliktar
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-05-20
Politics Paradigms And Intelligence Failures Why So Few Predicted The Collapse Of The Soviet Union written by Ofira Seliktar and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-20 with Political Science categories.
Washington's failure to foresee the collapse of its superpower rival ranks high in the pantheon of predictive failures. The question of who got what right or wrong has been intertwined with the deeper issue of "who won" the Cold War. Like the disputes over "who lost" China and Iran, this debate has been fought out along ideological and partisan lines, with conservatives claiming credit for the Evil Empire's demise and liberals arguing that the causes were internal to the Soviet Union. The intelligence community has come in for harsh criticism for overestimating Soviet strength and overlooking the symptoms of crisis; the discipline of "Sovietology" has dissolved into acrimonious irrelevance. Drawing on declassified documents, interviews, and careful analysis of contemporaneous literature, this book offers the first systematic analysis of this predictive failure at the paradigmatic, foreign policy, and intelligence levels. Although it is focused on the Soviet case, it offers lessons that are both timely and necessary.
Why Intelligence Fails
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Author : Robert Jervis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Why Intelligence Fails written by Robert Jervis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with History categories.
The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations-analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind-were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.
Navigating Iran
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Author : O. Seliktar
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 2012-04-05
Navigating Iran written by O. Seliktar and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-05 with Political Science categories.
This book provides the first full account of America's relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran from Jimmy Carter's presidency to Barack Obama's. It discusses all major facets of Iranian policy of interest to the United States: nuclear proliferation, revolutionary export and support for international terrorism, efforts to undermine the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and violations of human rights. It compares developments in Iran to their perception in Washington, providing the clearest picture available yet of the discrepancies between the complex and elusive Iranian reality and its understanding in the United States.
Politics Of Confrontation
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Author : Babak Ganji
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Release Date : 2006-04-28
Politics Of Confrontation written by Babak Ganji and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-04-28 with Political Science categories.
Did the United States know more than it acknowledges about growing unrest under the Shah in mid-1970s Iran? Have historians of American-Iranian relations focused too narrowly on prevailing historical theory and personal recollection? In a period of escalating tension between the United States and Iran, what can the two nations' history of conflict tell us about their diplomatic future? Covering Carter's policy from the end of the Shah's reign to the revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini, Babak Ganji explores the nature of their perpetually antagonistic relations and the mistrust and misunderstanding that fuels it. Politics of Confrontation is a penetrating critique of international relations theory within the historical framework of US-Iranian relations, as well as a thorough examination of American policy towards Iran. It is the first in-depth look at documents seized by revolutionary students from the American Embassy during the infamous hostage crisis, and debunks the myth that US officials were unaware of the nature of opposition to the Shah or of Soviet influence on senior clerics. These findings are an essential addition to the discourse of foreign policy theorists and invaluable for historians of the US, Iran and the Cold War.
The Politics Of Intelligence And American Wars With Iraq
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Author : O. Seliktar
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2008-02-18
The Politics Of Intelligence And American Wars With Iraq written by O. Seliktar and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-18 with Political Science categories.
Coming at the heels of September 11, Operation Iraqi Freedom has focused the limelight on the way in which the United States predicts and manages political change. The failure to find WMD and more important, the continued violence in Iraq instead of the hoped for democracy, has engender an acrimonious debate on the motives of the Bush administration and its uses or misuses of intelligence. The question of who got what right or wrong has been fought out along ideological, and partisan lines, with supporters claiming that, given what was known about Saddam Hussein, the decision to change his regime was justified and detractors arguing that a group of largely Jewish neoconservatives, acting on behalf of Israel, manipulated intelligence in order to trick the United States into an unnecessary and costly war. The book provides a systematic and objective analysis of the problems that faced American intelligence in deciphering the behavior of the highly secretive and confusing Iraq regime and its enigmatic leader.
Constructing Cassandra
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Author : Milo Jones
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2013-08-21
Constructing Cassandra written by Milo Jones and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-21 with Political Science categories.
Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.
The Image Of The Enemy
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Author : Paul Maddrell
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2015-11-01
The Image Of The Enemy written by Paul Maddrell and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-01 with Political Science categories.
Intelligence agencies spend huge sums of money to collect and analyze vast quantities of national security data for their political leaders. How well is this intelligence analyzed, how often is it acted on by policymakers, and does it have a positive or negative effect on decision making? Drawing on declassified documents, interviews with intelligence veterans and policymakers, and other sources, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries analyzed and used intelligence to shape their understanding of their main adversary. The cases in the book include the Soviet Union's analysis of the United States (and vice versa), East Germany's analysis of West Germany (and vice versa), British intelligence in the early years of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, Israeli intelligence about the Palestinians, Pakistani intelligence on India, and US intelligence about Islamist terrorists. These rivalries provide rich case studies for scholars and offer today’s analysts and policymakers the opportunity to closely evaluate past successes and failures in intelligence analysis and the best ways to give information support to policymakers. Using these lessons from the past, they can move forward to improve analysis of current adversaries and future threats.
Studies In Intelligence
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Studies In Intelligence written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Intelligence service categories.