Predicting The Unpredictable
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Predicting The Unpredictable
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Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-11-08
Predicting The Unpredictable written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-08 with Science categories.
Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.
The Physics Of Wall Street
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Author : James Owen Weatherall
language : en
Publisher: HMH
Release Date : 2013-01-08
The Physics Of Wall Street written by James Owen Weatherall and has been published by HMH this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
A look inside the world of “quants” and how science can (and can’t) predict financial markets: “Entertaining and enlightening” (The New York Times). After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But while many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack–era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, James Owen Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it’s to make them better. This book reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance, from a geophysicist using a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash to a physicist-run hedge fund earning 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. Weatherall shows how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. The Physics of Wall Street will change how we think about our economic future. “Fascinating history . . . Happily, the author has a gift for making complex concepts clear to lay readers.” —Booklist
How To Predict Everything
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Author : William Poundstone
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2019-06-06
How To Predict Everything written by William Poundstone and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-06 with Mathematics categories.
How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?
Predicting The Unpredictable
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Author : Terence C. Mills
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Predicting The Unpredictable written by Terence C. Mills and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Business & Economics categories.
The author discusses how research in financial markets has evolved and whether the application of theories can ever be translated into 'excess profits'.
Deep Learning In Multi Step Prediction Of Chaotic Dynamics
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Author : Matteo Sangiorgio
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-02-14
Deep Learning In Multi Step Prediction Of Chaotic Dynamics written by Matteo Sangiorgio and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-14 with Mathematics categories.
The book represents the first attempt to systematically deal with the use of deep neural networks to forecast chaotic time series. Differently from most of the current literature, it implements a multi-step approach, i.e., the forecast of an entire interval of future values. This is relevant for many applications, such as model predictive control, that requires predicting the values for the whole receding horizon. Going progressively from deterministic models with different degrees of complexity and chaoticity to noisy systems and then to real-world cases, the book compares the performances of various neural network architectures (feed-forward and recurrent). It also introduces an innovative and powerful approach for training recurrent structures specific for sequence-to-sequence tasks. The book also presents one of the first attempts in the context of environmental time series forecasting of applying transfer-learning techniques such as domain adaptation.
Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis
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Author : Michael McDonald
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2002-10-02
Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis written by Michael McDonald and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
A fresh perspective on predicting the market The experience of Wall Street investment manager and analyst Michael McDonald offers a new perspective on how to navigate the turbulent ups and downs of the markets. His innovative approach to the stock market teaches investors how to use new investment strategies intended to replace the "buy and hold forever" strategies of yesterday. McDonald discusses what a "trading range" market is-a roller-coaster ride in which the market will neither gain nor lose much ground-and guides readers through this market with his proven investment strategies. This book provides an understandable way to make sense of the unpredictable stock market, taking into account more complex theories, including chaos and contrarian approaches. Along with his expert advice, McDonald presents four investing paradoxes that will help investors make smarter decisions now and predict where the market is heading, using his proven theories.
Studies In The Methodology And Foundations Of Science
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Author : Patrick Suppes
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Studies In The Methodology And Foundations Of Science written by Patrick Suppes and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Science categories.
The twenty-three papers collected in tbis volume represent an important part of my published work up to the date of this volume. I have not arranged the paper chronologically, but under four main headings. Part I contains five papers on methodology concerned with models and measurement in the sciences. This part also contains the first paper I published, 'A Set of Independent Axioms for Extensive Quantities', in Portugaliae Mathematica in 1951. Part 11 also is concerned with methodology and ineludes six papers on probability and utility. It is not always easy to separate papers on probability and utility from papers on measurement, because of the elose connection between the two subjects, but Artieles 6 and 8, even though they have elose relations to measurement, seem more properly to belong in Part 11, because they are concerned with substantive questions about probability and utility. The last two parts are concerned with the foundations of physics and the foundations of psychology. I have used the term foundations rather than philosophy, because the papers are mainly concerned with specific axiomatic formulations for particular parts of physics or of psychology, and it seems to me that the termfoundations more appropriately describes such constructive axiomatic ventures. Part 111 contains four papers on the foundations of physics. The first paper deals with foundations of special relativity and the last three with the role ofprobability in quantum mechanics.
Mastering The Unpredictable
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Author : Keith D. Swenson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Mastering The Unpredictable written by Keith D. Swenson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Knowledge management categories.
The facilitation of knowledge work or what is increasingly known as "Case Management" represents the next imperative in office automation. The desire to fully support knowledge workers within the workplace is not new. What's new is that recent advances in Information Technology now make the management of unpredictable circumstances a practical reality. There's now a groundswell of interest in a more flexible, dynamic approach to supporting knowledge work. The facilitation of knowledge work or what is increasingly known as "Case Management" represents the next imperative in office automation. The desire to fully support knowledge workers within the workplace is not new. What's new is that recent advances in Information Technology now make the management of unpredictable circumstances a practical reality. There's now a groundswell of interest in a more flexible, dynamic approach to supporting knowledge work. Here are examples of what recognized experts have have recently written on the topic: Advancing to support more knowledge work is the goal of many organizations, thus there is a new groundswell of activity around unstructured processes. - Jim Sinur, VP of Research, Gartner I think a sea change is coming in the process world. -Connie Moore, Research Vice President, Forrester The sea of change Moore refers to is about technology that is able to support knowledge workers. The work of a knowledge worker is by its nature unpredictable and can not be handled by more formalized process definition techniques. For executives and managers of knowledge workers, "Mastering the Unpredictable" will: Explain the need and why previous technological approaches don't meet the need Explain the current technology gap, and the new technology that can close the gap Lay out the options that can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their organizations Equip them to best take advantage of this evolving trend"
Organizational Myopia
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Author : Maurizio Catino
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-02-14
Organizational Myopia written by Maurizio Catino and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The book examines the mechanisms that generate myopia in organizations and explores how organizations can foresee and contain unexpected events.
Shaping The Adaptive Organization
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Author : William E. Fulmer
language : en
Publisher: AMACOM/American Management Association
Release Date : 2000
Shaping The Adaptive Organization written by William E. Fulmer and has been published by AMACOM/American Management Association this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Business & Economics categories.
Drawing on concepts from biology, this text uses adaptation-to-survive as a blueprint for a thriving organization. It offers advice on how to build an adaptive business able to embrace constant change and thrive in a competitive business landscape.