Probability Forecasting
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Probability Forecasting
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Author : Lawrence Ambrose Hughes
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1980
Probability Forecasting written by Lawrence Ambrose Hughes and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Precipitation forecasting categories.
Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting Windp
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Author : Jerry D. Jarrell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting Windp written by Jerry D. Jarrell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Cyclone forecasting categories.
The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Probability Fire Weather Forecasts Show Promise In 3 Year Trial
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Author : Paul G. Scowcroft
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1970
Probability Fire Weather Forecasts Show Promise In 3 Year Trial written by Paul G. Scowcroft and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1970 with Fire weather categories.
Probabilistic Forecasting And Bayesian Data Assimilation
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Author : Sebastian Reich
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2015-05-14
Probabilistic Forecasting And Bayesian Data Assimilation written by Sebastian Reich and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-14 with Computers categories.
This book covers key ideas and concepts. It is an ideal introduction for graduate students in any field where Bayesian data assimilation is applied.
Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences
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Author : Allan Murphy
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-07-11
Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Allan Murphy and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-11 with Mathematics categories.
Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.
Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting
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Author : André Gensler
language : en
Publisher: kassel university press GmbH
Release Date : 2019-01-16
Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting written by André Gensler and has been published by kassel university press GmbH this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-16 with Weights and measures categories.
This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
Probability And Finance
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Author : Glenn Shafer
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2005-02-25
Probability And Finance written by Glenn Shafer and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Provides a foundation for probability based on game theory rather than measure theory. A strong philosophical approach with practical applications. Presents in-depth coverage of classical probability theory as well as new theory.
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making
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Author : D. Wendt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by D. Wendt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Probabilistic Forecasts And Optimal Decisions
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Author : Roman Krzysztofowicz
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2025-02-03
Probabilistic Forecasts And Optimal Decisions written by Roman Krzysztofowicz and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-02-03 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Account for uncertainties and optimize decision-making with this thorough exposition Decision theory is a body of thought and research seeking to apply a mathematical-logical framework to assessing probability and optimizing decision-making. It has developed robust tools for addressing all major challenges to decision making. Yet the number of variables and uncertainties affecting each decision outcome, many of them beyond the decider's control, mean that decision-making is far from a “solved problem”. The tools created by decision theory remain to be refined and applied to decisions in which uncertainties are prominent. Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions introduces a theoretically-grounded methodology for optimizing decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Beginning with an overview of the basic elements of probability theory and methods for modeling continuous variates, it proceeds to survey the mathematics of both continuous and discrete models, supporting each with key examples. The result is a crucial window into the complex but enormously rewarding world of decision theory. Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions readers will also find: Extended case studies supported with real-world data Mini-projects running through multiple chapters to illustrate different stages of the decision-making process End of chapter exercises designed to facilitate student learning Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions is ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the sciences and engineering, as well as predictive analytics and decision analytics professionals.