Utility Probability And Human Decision Making
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Utility Probability And Human Decision Making
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Author : D. Wendt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by D. Wendt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making
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Author : Dirk Wendt
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1975
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by Dirk Wendt and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1975 with categories.
Decision Making And Change In Human Affairs
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Author : H. Jungermann
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Decision Making And Change In Human Affairs written by H. Jungermann and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
It is only just recently that people have the tools to judge how well they are doing when making decisions. These tools were conceptualized in the seventeenth century. Since then many people have worked to sharpen the concepts, and to explore how these can be applied further. The problems of decision-making and the theory developed correspondingly have drawn the interest of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational experts, sociologists, not only for their general relevance, but also for a more intrinsic fascination. There are quite a few institutionalized activities to disseminate results and stimulate research in decision-making. For about a decade now a European organizational structure, centered mainly around the psy chological interest in decision-making. There have been conferences in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. Conference papers have been partly published+. The organization has thus stabilized, and its re latively long history makes it interesting to see what kind of developments occurred, within the area of interest.
Human Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : Kenneth R. Hammond
language : en
Publisher: Praeger Publishers
Release Date : 1980
Human Judgment And Decision Making written by Kenneth R. Hammond and has been published by Praeger Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision Making And Change In Human Affairs
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Author : Gerard de Zeeuw
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Decision Making And Change In Human Affairs written by Gerard de Zeeuw and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with categories.
Bounded Rationality In Decision Making Under Uncertainty Towards Optimal Granularity
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Author : Joe Lorkowski
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-07-01
Bounded Rationality In Decision Making Under Uncertainty Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Predicting Human Decision Making
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Author : Ariel Geib
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-05-31
Predicting Human Decision Making written by Ariel Geib and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-31 with Computers categories.
Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of "rationality." Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions. In this book, we explore the task of automatically predicting human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated computer systems of varying natures—from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., autonomous driving and personal robotic assistants). We explore the techniques, algorithms, and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks and illustrate major benefits from the use of these computational solutions in real-world application domains such as security, negotiations, argumentative interactions, voting systems, autonomous driving, and games. The book presents both the traditional and classical methods as well as the most recent and cutting edge advances, providing the reader with a panorama of the challenges and solutions in predicting human decision-making.
Introduction To Statistical Decision Theory
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Author : Silvia Bacci
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-07-11
Introduction To Statistical Decision Theory written by Silvia Bacci and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-11 with Mathematics categories.
Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory
A Science Of Decision Making
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Author : Ward Edwards
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
A Science Of Decision Making written by Ward Edwards and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Education categories.
Ward Edwards is well known as the father of behavioral decision making. In his 1954 Psychological Bulletin paper on decision making, he brought psychological ideas into what had been the province of economists. His influence in this realm is so pervasive that the Nobel committee was able to trace a direct path from Edwards's work to Daniel Kahneman's 2002 Prize for prospect theory. In a 1963 Psychological Review paper, Edwards brought Bayesian statistics to the attention of psychologists, who have continued to proliferate Bayesian ideas, underscoring the importance of the perspective. In a 1962 IEEE paper, Edwards foresaw how the world of intelligence gathering and analysis could by transformed by systems in which humans provided (subjective) probabilities and machines provided computational power. He also showed, in a 1986 book written with Detlof von Winterfeldt, how multiattribute utility analysis could help real-world decision makers generate satisfactory solutions to complex problems. In this book, 29 of Ward Edwards's most important published papers are reprinted, a selection that spans six decades, allowing the reader to see how this strikingly creative thinker generated many of the ideas that are now core beliefs among current researchers. It is perhaps less well known that Edwards continued to make substantial contributions during the years after his retirement. Illness reduced his public appearances, but he continued his incisive thinking behind the scenes. At the time of his passing, he was involved in several projects, and seven new papers from these projects were completed for this book by his last set of collaborators. Edwards's papers are a treat to read. His prose is the model of elegant simplicity, yet full of style and wit. With each paper, the editors have included a short introduction that presents Edwards's reflections on the content or impact of the older papers, or describes the creation of the new ones. Obituaries written by former students and colleagues flesh out the human side of this remarkable scholar.
Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : Jacques Frank Yates
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Judgment And Decision Making written by Jacques Frank Yates and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Decision-Making categories.