Utility Probability And Human Decision Making

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Utility Probability And Human Decision Making

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Author : D. Wendt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by D. Wendt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.

Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

Utility Probability And Human Decision Making

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Author : Charles Vlek
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1975

Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by Charles Vlek and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1975 with Decision making categories.

Prospect Theory

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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979

Prospect Theory written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Utility theory categories.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1982-04-30

Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982-04-30 with Psychology categories.

Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Predicting Human Decision Making

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Author : Ariel Rosenfeld
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-05-31

Predicting Human Decision Making written by Ariel Rosenfeld and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-31 with Computers categories.

Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of "rationality." Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions. In this book, we explore the task of automatically predicting human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated computer systems of varying natures—from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., autonomous driving and personal robotic assistants). We explore the techniques, algorithms, and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks and illustrate major benefits from the use of these computational solutions in real-world application domains such as security, negotiations, argumentative interactions, voting systems, autonomous driving, and games. The book presents both the traditional and classical methods as well as the most recent and cutting edge advances, providing the reader with a panorama of the challenges and solutions in predicting human decision-making.

Decisions Risk And Reward

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Author : Johnnie E.V. Johnson
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2008-01-24

Decisions Risk And Reward written by Johnnie E.V. Johnson and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.

In recent years leading figures in a variety of fields - political, financial, medical, and organizational - have become acutely aware of the need to effectively incorporate aspects of risk into their decision-making. This book addresses a wide range of contemporary issues in decision research, such as how individuals deal with uncertainty and comp

Tradeoff Decisions In System Design

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Author : A. Terry Bahill
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-12-14

Tradeoff Decisions In System Design written by A. Terry Bahill and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.

This textbook is about three key aspects of system design: decision making under uncertainty, trade-off studies and formal risk analyses. Recognizing that the mathematical treatment of these topics is similar, the authors generalize existing mathematical techniques to cover all three areas. Common to these topics are importance weights, combining functions, scoring functions, quantitative metrics, prioritization and sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, human decision-making activities and problems use these same tools. Therefore, these problems are also treated uniformly and modeled using prospect theory. Aimed at both engineering and business practitioners and students interested in systems engineering, risk analysis, operational management, and business process modeling, Tradeoff Decisions in System Design explains how humans can overcome cognitive biases and avoid mental errors when conducting trade-off studies and risk analyses in a wide range of domains. With generous use of examples as a common thread across chapters this book. “This book provides an excellent road map for designing and producing competitive products.”

Cognitive Processes In Choice And Decision Behavior

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Author : Thomas S. Wallsten
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2024-05-01

Cognitive Processes In Choice And Decision Behavior written by Thomas S. Wallsten and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-05-01 with Psychology categories.

Decision theory is a uniquely interdisciplinary field of study with contributions from economics, statistics, mathematics, philosophy, operations research, and psychology. The 1970s had seen important changes in research on behavioral decision theory in terms of a shift from a reliance on economic and statistical models to an emphasis on concepts drawn from cognitive psychology. Originally published in 1980, Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior contains papers that explore the reasons why these changes had come about and discuss the future directions to which they pointed. It was clear at the time that research in behavioral decision theory was changing dramatically. The chapters in this book represent a good assessment of the reasons the changes were coming about and some of the merits and problems of the directions in which it was moving. Today it can be read in its historical context.

Behavioral Decision Theory

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Author : Kazuhisa Takemura
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-09-29

Behavioral Decision Theory written by Kazuhisa Takemura and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-29 with Business & Economics categories.

This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.

Response Models For Detection Of Change

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Author : Anatol Rapoport
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Response Models For Detection Of Change written by Anatol Rapoport and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.

This book reports our research on detection of change processes that underlie psychophysical, learning, medical diagnosis, military, and pro duction control situations, and share three major features. First, the states of the process are not directly observable but become gradually known with the sequential acquisition of fallible information over time. Second, the mechanism that generates the fallible information is not stationary; rather, it is subjected to a sudden and irrevocable change. Thirdly, in complete, probabilistic information about the time of change is available when the process commences. The purpose of the book is to characterize this class of detection of change processes, to derive the optimal policy that minimizes total expected loss, and, most importantly, to develop testable response models, based on simple decision rules, for describing detection of change behavior. The book is theoretical in the sense that it offers mathematical models of multi-stage decision behavior and solutions to optimization problems. However, it is not anti-empirical, as it aims to stimulate new experimental research and to generate applications. Throughout the book, questions of experimental verification are briefly considered, and existing data from two studies are brought to bear on the validity of the models. The work is not complete; it only provides a starting point for investigating how people detect a change in an uncertain environment, balancing between the cost of delay in detecting the change and the cost of making an incor rect terminal decision.