Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory

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Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory

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Author : Attila Chikán
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory written by Attila Chikán and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

Evolution And Progress In Democracies

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Author : Johann Götschl
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09

Evolution And Progress In Democracies written by Johann Götschl and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Science categories.

In a ground-breaking series of articles, one of them written by a Nobel Laureate, this volume demonstrates the evolutionary dynamic and the transformation of today's democratic societies into scientific-democratic societies. It highlights the progress of modeling individual and societal evaluation by neo-Bayesian utility theory. It shows how social learning and collective opinion formation work, and how democracies cope with randomness caused by randomizers. Nonlinear `evolution equations' and serial stochastic matrices of evolutionary game theory allow us to optimally compute possible serial evolutionary solutions of societal conflicts. But in democracies progress can be defined as any positive, gradual, innovative and creative change of culturally used, transmitted and stored mentifacts (models, theories), sociofacts (customs, opinions), artifacts and technifacts, within and across generations. The most important changes are caused, besides randomness, by conflict solutions and their realizations by citizens who follow democratic laws. These laws correspond to the extended Pareto principle, a supreme, socioethical democratic rule. According to this principle, progress is any increase in the individual and collective welfare which is achieved during any evolutionary progress. Central to evolutionary modeling is the criterion of the empirical realization of computed solutions. Applied to serial conflict solutions (decisions), evolutionary trajectories are formed; they become the most influential causal attractors of the channeling of societal evolution. Democratic constitutions, legal systems etc., store all advantageous, present and past, adaptive, competitive, cooperative and collective solutions and their rules; they have been accepted by majority votes. Societal laws are codes of statutes (default or statistical rules), and they serve to optimally solve societal conflicts, in analogy to game theoretical models or to statistical decision theory. Such solutions become necessary when we face harmful or advantageous random events always lurking at the edge of societal and external chaos. The evolutionary theory of societal evolution in democracies presents a new type of stochastic theory; it is based on default rules and stresses realization. The rules represent the change of our democracies into information, science and technology-based societies; they will revolutionize social sciences, especially economics. Their methods have already found their way into neural brain physiology and research into intelligence. In this book, neural activity and the creativity of human thinking are no longer regarded as linear-deductive. Only evolutive nonlinear thinking can include multiple causal choices by many individuals and the risks of internal and external randomness; this serves the increasing welfare of all individuals and society as a whole. Evolution and Progress in Democracies is relevant for social scientists, economists, evolution theorists, statisticians, philosophers, philosophers of science, and interdisciplinary researchers.

Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty

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Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-11-25

Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-25 with Business & Economics categories.

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Prospect Theory

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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979

Prospect Theory written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Utility theory categories.

Prospect Theory

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Author : Peter P. Wakker
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-07-22

Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Recent Developments In The Foundations Of Utility And Risk Theory

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Author : L. Daboni
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Recent Developments In The Foundations Of Utility And Risk Theory written by L. Daboni and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.

The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e.

A Course In Mathematical And Statistical Ecology

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Author : Anil Gore
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17

A Course In Mathematical And Statistical Ecology written by Anil Gore and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Mathematics categories.

As the world enters the new millennium, mankind faces a series ofnew prob lems, many of them created by man himself. These include overpopulation, air and water pollution, global warming, accumulation of greenhouse gases, darnage to the ozone layer and loss of biodiversity. Perhaps these problems were around even earlier in an incipient stage, but they have now assumed global proportions and are uppermost in the minds of all. A natural con sequence is enhanced interest in sciences connected with these problems. Ecology is a field that is immensely useful in understanding many of them. In the seventies, nature conservation became a concern of wide sections of society, well beyond the small group of expert ecologists. Species extinc tion and depletion of biological resources were seen as major threats to human welfare. It was therefore natural for scientists from different disci plines to seek reasons behind these developments. We were no exceptions and when opportunity to interact with ecologists as statistreal consultants came, we found ourselves reading more and more of ecology and evolution ary biology. Several years ago we proposed starting of an elective one semester course on statistical ecology for graduate students of statistics of Pune University.

Semiorders

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Author : Marc Pirlot
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09

Semiorders written by Marc Pirlot and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.

Semiorder is probably one of the most frequently ordered structures in science. It naturally appears in fields like psychometrics, economics, decision sciences, linguistics and archaeology. It explicitly takes into account the inevitable imprecisions of scientific instruments by allowing the replacement of precise numbers by intervals. The purpose of this book is to dissect this structure and to study its fundamental properties. The main subjects treated are the numerical representations of semiorders, the generalizations of the concept to valued relations, the aggregation of semiorders and their basic role in a general theoretical framework for multicriteria decision-aid methods. Audience: This volume is intended for students and researchers in the fields of decision analysis, management science, operations research, discrete mathematics, classification, social choice theory, and order theory, as well as for practitioners in the design of decision tools.

Expected Utility Hypotheses And The Allais Paradox

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Author : M. Allais
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-14

Expected Utility Hypotheses And The Allais Paradox written by M. Allais and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-14 with Social Science categories.

Utility theory or, value theory in general, is certainly the cornerstone of decision theory, game theory, microecon~mics, and all social and political theories which deal with public decisions. Recently the American School of utility, founded by von N eumann Morgenstern, encountered a far-going criticism by the French School of utility represented by its founder Allais. The whole basis of the theory of decisions involving risk has been shaken and put into question. Consequently, basic research in the fundamentals of utility and value theory evolved into a crisis. Like any crisis in basic research, and this one was not an exception, it was very fruitful. One may simply say: Allais versus von Neumann-Morgenstern, or the French School of utility versus the American School, became one of the battlefields of scientific development which proved to be a most creative source of new advances and new developments in all those sciences which are based on evaluation of utilities.

Revolutionary Changes In Understanding Man And Society

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Author : Johann Götschl
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Revolutionary Changes In Understanding Man And Society written by Johann Götschl and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Philosophy categories.

JOHANN GOTSCHL Over the last decades, social philosophers, economists. sociologists, utility and game theorists, biologists, mathematicians, moral philosophers and philosophers have created totally new concepts and methods of understanding the function and role of humans in their modern societies. The years between 1953 and 1990 brought drastic changes in the scientific foundations and dynamic of today's society. A burst of entirely new, revolutionary ideas, similar to those which heralded the beginning of the twentieth century in physics, dominates the picture. This book also discusses the ongoing refutation of old concepts in the social sciences. Some of them are: the traditional concepts ofrationality, for example, based on maximization of interests, the linearity of axiomatic methods, methodological individualism, and the concept of a static society. Today the revolutionary change from a static view of our society to an evolutionary one reverberates through all social sciences and will dominate the twenty-first century. In an uncertain and risky world where cooperation and teamwork is getting more and more important, one cannot any longer call the maximization of one's own expectations of utility or interests "rational" .