Project Valuation And Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Applying Decision Tree Analysis And Monte Carlo Simulation

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Project Valuation And Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Applying Decision Tree Analysis And Monte Carlo Simulation

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Author : Donald Dibra
language : en
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Release Date : 2015-04-28

Project Valuation And Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Applying Decision Tree Analysis And Monte Carlo Simulation written by Donald Dibra and has been published by BoD – Books on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-28 with Business & Economics categories.

This work presents the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach when dealing with the economic valuation of projects which are subjected to risks and uncertainties. The Net Present Value of a project is usually used as an investment decision parameter. Using deterministic models to calculate a project’s Net Present Value neglects the risky and uncertain nature of real life projects and consequently leads to useless valuation results. Realistic valuation models need to use probability density distributions for the input parameters and certain probabilities for the occurrence of specific events during the life time of a project in combination with the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach. After a short introduction a brief explanation of the traditional project valuation methods is given. The main focus of this work lies in using the Net Present Value method as a basic valuation tool in conjunction with the Monte Carlo Simulation technique and the Decision Tree Analysis approach to form a comprehensive method for project valuation under risk and uncertainty. The extensive project valuation methodology introduced is applied on two fictional projects, one from the pharmaceutical sector and one from the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Both industries deal with high risks, high uncertainties and high costs, but also high rewards. The example from the pharmaceutical industry illustrates very well how the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis method, results in a well-diversified portfolio of new drugs with the highest reward at minimum possible risk. Applying the presented probabilistic project valuation approach on the oil exploration and production project shows how to reduce the risk of losing big.

Financial Techniques For Strategic Decision Making

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Author : Dr. Kumuda P R
language : en
Publisher: Authors Click Publishing
Release Date : 2025-05-12

Financial Techniques For Strategic Decision Making written by Dr. Kumuda P R and has been published by Authors Click Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-12 with Business & Economics categories.

Financial Techniques for Strategic Decision Making is a comprehensive guide that equips business leaders, managers, and financial professionals with the essential tools and methodologies needed to make informed, data-driven strategic decisions. The book delves into key financial concepts such as capital budgeting, risk analysis, cost management, financial forecasting, and performance measurement, all within the context of long-term strategic planning. With a focus on real-world application, it blends theory with practical insights, case studies, and decision-making frameworks to help readers align financial analysis with corporate goals. Whether navigating mergers, investments, or growth strategies, this resource empowers readers to evaluate options effectively and drive sustainable success.

Risk Sharing In The Pharmaceutical Industry

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Author : Gerrit Reepmeyer
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-02-25

Risk Sharing In The Pharmaceutical Industry written by Gerrit Reepmeyer and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.

The productivity in pharmaceutical research and development faces intense pres sure. R&D expenditures of the major US and European companies have topped US$ 33 billion in 2003 compared to around US$ 13 billion just a decade ago. At the same time, the number of new drug approvals has dropped from 53 in 1996 to only 35 in 2003. Moreover, the protraction of clinical trials has significantly reduced the effective time of patent protection. The consequences are devastating. Monopoly profits have started to decline and the average costs per new drug have reached a re cord level of close to US$ 1 billion today. As a result, any failure of a new sub stance in the R&D process can lead to considerable losses, and the risks of introduc ing a new drug to the market have grown tremendously. Particularly if a company is highly dependent on just a handful of mega-selling blockbuster drugs, the risks can be even greater. For example, Pfizer generated about 90% of its worldwide revenues in 2002 with just 8 products. Any shortfall of a promising late-stage drug candidate would have left Pfizer with a gaping hole in its product portfolio. In order to deal with these risks, many pharmaceutical companies have started to organize their R&D in partnership. In fact, more than 600 alliances in pharmaceutical R&D are signed every year.

Finance For Engineers

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Author : Frank Crundwell
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-03-11

Finance For Engineers written by Frank Crundwell and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-03-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.

With flair and an originality of approach, Crundwell brings his considerable experience to bear on this crucial topic. Uniquely, this book discusses the technical and financial aspects of decision-making in engineering and demonstrates these through case studies. It’s a hugely important matter as, of course, engineering solutions and financial decisions are intimately tied together. The best engineers combine the technical and financial cases in determining new solutions to opportunities, challenges and problems. To get your project approved, no matter the size of it, the financial case must be clear and compelling. This book provides a framework for engineers and scientists to undertake financial evaluations and assessments of engineering or production projects.

Project Management For Facility Constructions

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Author : Alberto De Marco
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-03-23

Project Management For Facility Constructions written by Alberto De Marco and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-23 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This book describes principles, quantitative methods and techniques for financing, planning, and managing projects to develop a variety of constructed facilities in the fields of oil & gas, power, infrastructure, architecture and the commercial building industries. It is addressed to a broad range of professionals willing to improve their project management skills and designed to help newcomers to the engineering and construction industry understand how to apply project management to field practice. Also, it makes project management disciplines accessible to experts in technical areas of engineering and construction. In education, this text is suitable for undergraduate and graduate classes in architecture, engineering and construction management, as well as for specialist and professional courses in project management.

6thinternational Engineering And Technology Management Summit 2024

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Author : BAŞKENT ÜNİVERSİTESİ
language : en
Publisher: 3D YAYINEVİ
Release Date : 2024-12-27

6thinternational Engineering And Technology Management Summit 2024 written by BAŞKENT ÜNİVERSİTESİ and has been published by 3D YAYINEVİ this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-27 with Technology & Engineering categories.

The 6th INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT (ETMS 2024), organized by Başkent University, was held in Ankara, Türkiye, from October 17-19, 2024. This year’s theme, “Engineering and Technology Management in Defense Industry,” provided a critical platform for discussing the challenges and opportunities in this rapidly evolving field. ETMS 2024 brought together researchers, professionals, and industry leaders to explore topics such as advanced weapon systems, surveillance technologies, and strategic infrastructure management. The summit examined the societal and environmental impacts of defense technologies while fostering innovative strategies to address emerging global security challenges. The event featured insightful keynote presentations, including: Prof. Beata Mrugalska (Poznan University of Technology, Poland), who discussed “Human Perspective on Sustainable Logistics 4.0: Trends, Challenges, Methods, and Best Practices.” Prof. Dr. Tuğrul Daim (Portland State University, USA), who explored “Policies for Emerging Technologies.” Prof. Dr. Markus A. Launer (Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences, Germany), who presented on “International Technology Management.” These distinguished speakers, alongside other esteemed participants, contributed to a vibrant exchange of ideas, addressing the evolving role of engineering and technology management in the defense sector. We extend our heartfelt gratitude to all contributors, including keynote and invited speakers, authors, session chairs, and the organizing committee, for their dedication to making ETMS 2024 a resounding success. This proceedings book includes the abstracts and extended abstracts presented at the summit, reflecting the diverse expertise and innovative approaches shared during the event. We hope it serves as a valuable resource for all those interested in advancing the fields of engineering and technology management.

Multidisciplinary Functions Of Blockchain Technology In Ai And Iot Applications

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Author : Chowdhury, Niaz
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2020-10-30

Multidisciplinary Functions Of Blockchain Technology In Ai And Iot Applications written by Chowdhury, Niaz and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-30 with Computers categories.

Blockchain technology allows value exchange without the need for a central authority and ensures trust powered by its decentralized architecture. As such, the growing use of the internet of things (IoT) and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) are to be benefited immensely by this technology that can offer devices and applications data security, decentralization, accountability, and reliable authentication. Bringing together blockchain technology, AI, and IoT can allow these tools to complement the strengths and weaknesses of the others and make systems more efficient. Multidisciplinary Functions of Blockchain Technology in AI and IoT Applications deliberates upon prospects of blockchain technology using AI and IoT devices in various application domains. This book contains a comprehensive collection of chapters on machine learning, IoT, and AI in areas that include security issues of IoT, farming, supply chain management, predictive analytics, and natural languages processing. While highlighting these areas, the book is ideally intended for IT industry professionals, students of computer science and software engineering, computer scientists, practitioners, stakeholders, researchers, and academicians interested in updated and advanced research surrounding the functions of blockchain technology in AI and IoT applications across diverse fields of research.

Risk And Decision Analysis In Projects

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Author : John R. Schuyler
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001

Risk And Decision Analysis In Projects written by John R. Schuyler and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.

Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.

Taxmann S Financial Management Theory Problems Cases Blend Of Theory Practical Application Following A Business Oriented Approach Enabling Readers To Analyze Company Reports Effectively

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Author : Ravi M. Kishore
language : en
Publisher: Taxmann Publications Private Limited
Release Date : 2023-09-26

Taxmann S Financial Management Theory Problems Cases Blend Of Theory Practical Application Following A Business Oriented Approach Enabling Readers To Analyze Company Reports Effectively written by Ravi M. Kishore and has been published by Taxmann Publications Private Limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-26 with Education categories.

This book adopts an enhanced business-oriented methodology for teaching and learning financial management. Aimed at fostering an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of the subject, it takes a holistic approach that melds theory with practical applications to real-world scenarios. The structure of this book is meticulously designed to elaborate on the diverse principles and techniques of financial management. Upon completion, readers will be equipped to scrutinize the annual reports of various companies and analyze the information more effectively. This book is designed for individuals seeking to understand financial management's core principles and theories. Primarily, it is tailored for postgraduate students enrolled in business schools. Additionally, undergraduate students pursuing B.Com. (Hons.), B.Com. (Prog.), and B.A. (Prog.) from various universities and professional institutes will also find this book beneficial. The Present Publication is the 9th Edition, authored by Ravi M. Kishore and Prof. (Dr) Padma Sai Arora, with the following noteworthy features: • [Principles and Techniques of Financial Management] are explained in a detailed manner • [Easy-to-understand Style] has been followed throughout the book to explain the concepts in detail • [Extensive Descriptive Explanations] are presented in this book, followed by figures and diagrams • [Cases to Prepare the Base for Financial Principles and Concepts] is included in each of the six parts • [Case Studies] at the end of each chapter is easy to relate to and has been prepared to make way for discussions • [Solved Miscellaneous Illustrations] are given for better understanding • [Practice Questions] Readers can test their knowledge after going through each chapter by solving practice questions • [Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)] have also been incorporated to help prepare for quiz/assignment • [Learning in line with Industry Trends] has been incorporated in this book by giving annual reports of different companies The chapter-wise schematics of the book are as follows: • Learning Outcomes • Case Study • Concepts • Keywords • Summary • Miscellaneous Illustrations • Review Questions o True or False o Choose the Correct Word o Choose the Correct Answer o Discussion Questions • Practical Exercises • Case Study The detailed contents of the book are as follows: • Essentials of Financial Management o Financial Management – An Overview o Basic Valuation Concepts – Time Value of Money, Interest Rates, Valuation of Bonds and Risk-Return Analysis o Strategic Financial Planning • Analysis of Financial Position o Analysis of Financial Statements o State of Changes in Financial Position – Fund Flow Analysis o Financial Statement Analysis using Cash Flow Analysis o Financial Statement Analysis using Ratio Analysis o Financial Statement Analysis using Economic Value Added o Financial Statement Analysis using Financial and Operating Ratios • Investment Decision o Capital Budgeting o Risk Evaluation in Capital Budgeting • Financing Decisions o Cost of Capital and Impact on Firm's Earnings Per Share (EPS) o Capital Structure Theories and Value of Firm • Dividend Decisions o Dividend Theories and Value of Firm • Working Capital Management o Basics of Working Capital o Estimating Working Capital o Inventory Management o Receivables Management o Cash Management

An Introduction To Project Modeling And Planning

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Author : Gündüz Ulusoy
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-04-05

An Introduction To Project Modeling And Planning written by Gündüz Ulusoy and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.

This textbook teaches the basic concepts and methods of project management but also explains how to convert them to useful results in practice. Project management offers a promising working area for theoretical and practical applications, and developing software and decision support systems (DSS). This book specifically focuses on project planning and control, with an emphasis on mathematical modeling. Models and algorithms establish a good starting point for students to study the relevant literature and support pursuing academic work in related fields. The book provides an introduction to theoretical concepts, and it also provides detailed explanations, application examples, and case studies that deal with real-life problems. The chapter topics include questions that underlie critical thinking, interpretation, analytics, and making comparisons. Learning outcomes are defined and the content of the book is structured following these goals. Chapter 1 begins by introducing the basic concepts, methods, and processes of project management. This Chapter constitutes the base for defining and modeling project management problems. Chapter 2 explores the fundamentals of organizing and managing projects from an organization’s perspective. Issues related to project team formation, the role of project managers, and organization types are discussed. Chapter 3 is devoted to project planning and network modeling of projects, covering fundamental concepts such as project scope, Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), Organizational Breakdown Structure (OBS), Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS), project network modeling, activity duration, and cost estimating, activity-based costing (ABC), data and knowledge management. Chapter 4 introduces deterministic scheduling models, which can be used in constructing the time schedules. Models employing time-based and finance-based objectives are introduced. The CPM is covered. The unconstrained version of maximizing Net Present Value (NPV) is also treated here together with the case of time-dependent cash flows. Chapter 5 focuses on the time/cost trade-off problem, explaining how to reduce the duration of some of the activities and therefore reduce the project duration at the expense of additional costs. This topic is addressed for both continuous and discrete cases. Chapter 6 discusses models and methods of scheduling under uncertain activity durations. PERT is introduced for minimizing the expected project duration and extended to the PERT-Costing method for minimizing the expected project cost. Simulation is presented as another approach for dealing with the uncertainty in activity durations and costs. To demonstrate the use of the PERT, a case study on constructing an earthquake-resistant residential house is presented. Classifications of resource and schedule types are given in Chapter 7, and exact and heuristic solution procedures for the single- and multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) are presented. The objective of maximizing NPV under resource constraints is addressed, and the capital-constrained project scheduling model is introduced. In Chapter 8, resource leveling, and further resource management problems are introduced. Total adjustment cost and resource availability cost problems are introduced. Various exact models are investigated. A heuristic solution procedure for the resource leveling problem is presented in detail. Also, resource portfolio management policies and the resource portfolio management problem are discussed. A case study on resource leveling dealing with the annual audit project of a major corporation is presented. Project contract types and payment schedules constitute the topics of Chapter 9. Contracts are legal documents reflecting the results of some form of client-contractor negotiations and sometimes of a bidding process, which deserve closer attention. Identification and allocation of risk in contracts, project control issues, disputes, and resolution management are further topics covered in this Chapter. A bidding model is presented to investigate client-contractor negotiations and the bidding process from different aspects. Chapter 10 focuses on processes and methods for project monitoring and control. Earned Value Management is studied to measure the project performance throughout the life of a project and to estimate the expected project time and cost based on the current status of the project. How to incorporate inflation into the analysis is presented. In Chapter 11, qualitative and quantitative techniques including decision trees, simulation, and software applications are introduced. Risk phases are defined and building a risk register is addressed. An example risk breakdown structure is presented. The design of risk management processes is introduced, and risk response planning strategies are discussed. At the end of the Chapter, the quantitative risk analysis is demonstrated at the hand of a team discussion case study. Chapter 12 covers several models and approaches dealing with various stochastic aspects of the decision environment. Stochastic models, generation of robust schedules, use of reactive and fuzzy approaches are presented. Sensitivity and scenario analysis are introduced. Also, simulation analysis, which is widely used to analyze the impacts of uncertainty on project goals, is presented. Chapter 13 addresses repetitive projects that involve the production or construction of similar units in batches such as railway cars or residential houses. Particularly in the construction industry repetitive projects represent a large portion of the work accomplished in this sector of the economy. A case study on the 50 km section of a motorway project is used for demonstrating the handling of repetitive project management. How best to select one or more of a set of candidate projects to maintain a project portfolio is an important problem for project-based organizations with limited resources. The project selection problem is inherently a multi-objective problem and is treated as such in Chapter 14. Several models and solution techniques are introduced. A multi-objective, multi-period project selection and scheduling model is presented. A case study that addresses a project portfolio selection and scheduling problem for the construction of a set of dams in a region is presented. Finally, Chapter 15 discusses three promising research areas in project management in detail: (i) Sustainability and Project Management, (ii) Project Management in the Era of Big Data, and (iii) the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the New Age Project Management. We elaborate on the importance of sustainability in project management practices, discuss how developments in data analytics might impact project life cycle management, and speculate how the infinite possibilities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the new technologies will transform project management practices.