Quantifying Uncertainty In Subsurface Systems
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Quantifying Uncertainty In Subsurface Systems
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Author : Céline Scheidt
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-06-19
Quantifying Uncertainty In Subsurface Systems written by Céline Scheidt and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-19 with Science categories.
Under the Earth's surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors' Vox: eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources
Quantifying Uncertainty In Subsurface Systems
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Author : Céline Scheidt
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-04-27
Quantifying Uncertainty In Subsurface Systems written by Céline Scheidt and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-27 with Science categories.
Under the Earth’s surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: • A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification • Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers • A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors’ Vox: https://eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources
Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis Of Geoscientific Predictions With Data Driven Approaches
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Author : Jihoon Park
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis Of Geoscientific Predictions With Data Driven Approaches written by Jihoon Park and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Uncertainty quantification in the Earth Sciences forms an integral component in decision making. Such decision has different objectives depending on the subsurface system. For example, the goals include maximizing profits in exploitation of resources or minimizing the effects on the environment. It is often the case that the decision has to balance between multiple conflicting objectives. Because the decision is made on prediction uncertainty, it is crucial to quantify realistic uncertainty which necessitates identification of a variety of sources of model uncertainty. The sources of model uncertainty include different interpretations on subsurface structures and depositional scenarios, unknown spatial distributions of properties, uncertainty in boundary conditions, hydrological/hydraulic properties and errors in measurements. The subsurface system is parameterized to represent model uncertainty. The model variable can be either global (takes scalar value) or spatially distributed. With limited available data, a large number of uncertain model variables exists. One of key tasks is to quantify how each model variable contribute to response uncertainty, which can be achieved by means of sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in geoscientific computer experiments, whether for forecasting, data assimilation or model calibration. Some methods of sensitivity analysis have been used in Earth Sciences but they have clear limitations -- they cannot efficiently deal with multivariate responses, excessive calculations are required, and it is hard to take into account categorical input uncertainty. Overcoming these limitations, we revisit the idea of regionalized sensitivity analysis. In particular, we focus on distance-based global sensitivity analysis to estimate sensitivities of multivariate responses with limited number of samples. We demonstrate how the results from sensitivity analysis can be utilized to reduce model uncertainty with minimal impact on response uncertainty. The results can be used to design second Monte Carlo or building a surrogate model. Uncertainty needs to be updated as more data are required from different sources. In a Bayesian framework, this requires sampling from a posterior density of model and prediction variables. The key components of the workflow are dimensionality reduction of data variables and building of a statistical surrogate model to replace full forward models. It is demonstrated that the methodology successfully performs model inversions with limited number of full forward model runs. In many geoscientific applications, both global and spatial variables are uncertain. For convenience in computations, spatial variables are often converted to a few global variables. Even if the approach is efficient, the inversion results may not be consistent with the stated geological prior which leads to unrealistic uncertainty. In this dissertation, we propose to extend direct forecasting to predict model variables themselves. It is shown that successful inversion can be performed with both global and spatial variables characterizing a field-scale subsurface system. All the methodologies are demonstrated with the case studies. The first case deals with an oil reservoir in Libya. The case is used to study the proposed methods for global sensitivity analysis and approaches for model inversions to integrate dynamic data. The second case deals with the groundwater reservoir in Denmark. The case is used to integrate different sources of data to offer the inputs of decision models for groundwater management.
Quantifying And Visualizing Uncertainty Of 3d Geological Structures With Implicit Methods
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Author : Leo Yang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Quantifying And Visualizing Uncertainty Of 3d Geological Structures With Implicit Methods written by Leo Yang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
Geological structures significantly contribute the complex interaction of physical processes in subsurface systems. The evaluation of the spatial distribution of geological structures in the subsurface are crucial for various applications, so sophisticated methods are needed to model and visualize geological structures in 3D. However, uncertainties are unavoidable for these 3D models, due to sparsity and imprecision of data, as well as people's lack of geological understanding. Both methodological and computational challenges exist in addressing uncertainties of 3D geological structures. This dissertation addresses these challenges, by presenting new practical methods for quantifying and visualizing the uncertainty of geological structures with implicit methods. To enhance people's communication and perception about structural uncertainty, a new method based on the idea of stochastic motion is proposed first. Geological surfaces are represented as the addition of trend functions, initialized with signed distance functions, and residual functions, subject to constraints of data and geological age relationships. The uncertainty is assessed by independent realizations drawn by Monte Carlo sampling. The uncertainty is visualized by a "smooth" movie of gradually evolving geological surfaces that have the same stationary distribution as Monte Carlo realizations, sampled by McMC. The method is illustrated using a synthetic data set from a copper deposit, where denser drillholes constrain an ore body with seven different lithologies. For handling more complex cases with even denser data and more geological rules, a framework to model large-scale geological structures is presented. Due to the non-stationary and complex nature of large-scale geological structures, performing global interpolation with all dense data together may create artifacts that are geologically unrealistic. Therefore, the proposed framework uses a divide-and-conquer strategy. The core idea is to create intermediate implicit 3D geological models that match subsets of data and then recombine them into a single large 3D geological model, while maintaining data and geological rule constraints. The framework is successfully applied to model the stratigraphy model of a large-scale banded iron formation in Western Australia with dense boreholes. Finally, an efficient Bayesian framework to quantify the uncertainty of implicit geological structures with geophysical data is introduced. Geophysical data provide critical information and constraints for validating subsurface models. Bayesian frameworks are often needed for quantifying uncertainty of 3D geological structures in inverse problems, but challenges exist, due to the high dimensional nature of spatial models. Implicit representation of geological structures transforms discrete geological objects into a continuous variable, i.e., a scalar field; dimension reduction techniques such as principal component analysis can be applied because of the implicit representation. Rejection sampling and Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithms are designed to work in the case. Results show that computing time is saved when sampling new model realizations from the low dimensional space. The method is demonstrated with a mineral-hosting region in Western Australia with gravity data.
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantification In Water Resources Modeling
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Author : Philippe Renard
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2020-04-22
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantification In Water Resources Modeling written by Philippe Renard and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-22 with categories.
Numerical models of flow and transport processes are heavily employed in the fields of surface, soil, and groundwater hydrology. They are used to interpret field observations, analyze complex and coupled processes, or to support decision making related to large societal issues such as the water-energy nexus or sustainable water management and food production. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are two key features of modern science-based predictions. When applied to water resources, these tasks must cope with many degrees of freedom and large datasets. Both are challenging and require novel theoretical and computational approaches to handle complex models with large number of unknown parameters.
Hydrogeology
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Author : Alain Dassargues
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-09-03
Hydrogeology written by Alain Dassargues and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-03 with Science categories.
This text combines the science and engineering of hydrogeology in an accessible, innovative style. As well as providing physical descriptions and characterisations of hydrogeological processes, it also sets out the corresponding mathematical equations for groundwater flow and solute/heat transport calculations. And, within this, the methodological and conceptual aspects for flow and contaminant transport modelling are discussed in detail. This comprehensive analysis forms the ideal textbook for graduate and undergraduate students interested in groundwater resources and engineering, and indeed its analyses can apply to researchers and professionals involved in the area.
Isotopic Constraints On Earth System Processes
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Author : Kenneth W. W. Sims
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2022-06-01
Isotopic Constraints On Earth System Processes written by Kenneth W. W. Sims and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-01 with Science categories.
Using isotopes as a tool for understanding Earth processes From establishing the absolute age of the Earth to providing a stronger understanding of the nexus between geology and life, the careful measurement and quantitative interpretation of minor variations in the isotopic composition of Earth’s materials has provided profound insight into the origins and workings of our planet. Isotopic Constraints on Earth System Processes presents examples of the application of numerous different isotope systems to address a wide range of topical problems in Earth system science. Volume highlights include: examination of the natural fractionation of non-traditional stable isotopes utilizing isotopes to understand the origin of magmas and evolution of volcanic systems application of isotopes to interrogate and understand Earth’s Carbon and Oxygen cycles examination of the geochemical and hydrologic processes that lead to isotopic fractionation application of isotopic reactive transport models to decipher hydrologic and biogeochemical processes The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.
Crustal Magmatic System Evolution
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Author : Matteo Masotta
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2021-05-11
Crustal Magmatic System Evolution written by Matteo Masotta and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-11 with Science categories.
A comprehensive picture of the architecture of crustal magmatic systems The composition of igneous rocks – their minerals, melts, and fluids – reveals the physical and chemical conditions under which magmas form, evolve, interact, and move from the Earth’s mantle through the crust. These magma dynamics affect processes on the surface including crustal growth and eruptive behaviour of volcanoes. Crustal Magmatic System Evolution: Anatomy, Architecture, and Physico-Chemical Processes uses analytical, experimental, and numerical approaches to explore the diversity of crustal processes from magma differentiation and assimilation to eruption at the surface. Volume highlights include: Physical and chemical parameterization of crustal magmatic systems Experimental, theoretical and modelling approaches targeting crustal magmatic processes Timescales of crustal magmatic processes, including storage, recharge, and ascent through volcanic conduits The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book in a Q&A with the Editors.
Space Physics And Aeronomy Magnetospheres In The Solar System
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Author : Romain Maggiolo
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2021-04-14
Space Physics And Aeronomy Magnetospheres In The Solar System written by Romain Maggiolo and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-14 with Science categories.
Überblick über den aktuellen Wissensstand und künftige Forschungsrichtungen in der Magnetosphärenphysik In den sechs Jahrzehnten seit der Einführung des Begriffs ?Magnetosphäre? sind über den magnetisierten Raum, der jeden Körper in unserem Sonnensystem umgibt, viele Theorien entstanden und viele Erkenntnisse gewonnen worden. Jede Magnetosphäre ist einzigartig und verhält sich doch entsprechend den universellen physikalischen Vorgängen. Der Band ?Magnetospheres in the Solar System? enthält Beiträge von Experten für Experimentalphysik, theoretische Physik und numerische Modellierung, die einen Überblick über verschiedene Magnetosphären vermitteln, von der winzigen Magnetosphäre des Merkur bis zu den gewaltigen planetarischen Magnetosphären von Jupiter und Saturn. Das Werk bietet insbesondere: * Einen kompakten Überblick über die Geschichte der Magnetosphäre, ihre Grundsätze und Gleichungen * Eine Zusammenfassung der grundlegenden Prozesse in der Magnetospährenphysik * Instrumente und Techniken zur Untersuchung von Prozessen in der Magnetosphäre * Eine besondere Schwerpunktsetzung auf die Magnetosphäre der Erde und ihre Dynamik * Eine Darstellung der planetaren Magnetfelder und Magnetosphären im gesamten Sonnensystem * Eine Definition der künftigen Forschungsrichtungen in der Magnetosphärenphysik Die Amerikanische Geophysikalische Vereinigung fördert die wissenschaftliche Erforschung der Erde und des Weltraums zum Wohle der Menschheit. In ihren Publikationen werden wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse veröffentlicht, die Forschern, Studenten und Fachkräften zur Verfügung stehen.
Uncertainty Quantification
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Author : Luis Chase
language : en
Publisher: Nova Science Publishers
Release Date : 2019
Uncertainty Quantification written by Luis Chase and has been published by Nova Science Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with MATHEMATICS categories.
In recent times, polynomial chaos expansion has emerged as a dominant technique to determine the response uncertainties of a system by propagating the uncertainties of the inputs. In this regard, the opening chapter of Uncertainty Quantification: Advances in Research and Applications, an intrusive approach called Galerkin Projection as well as non-intrusive approaches (such as pseudo-spectral projection and linear regression) are discussed.Next, the authors introduce a new methodology to determine the uncertainties of input parameters using CIRCÉ software to overcome the reliance on expert judgment. The goal is to determinate and evaluate the uncertainty bounds for physical models related to reflood model of MARS-KS code Vessel module (coupled with COBRA-TF) using both CIRCÉ and the experimental data of FEBA.Lastly, uncertainties related to rheological model parameters of skeletal muscles are modeled and analyzed, and available data are acquired and fused for hyperelastic constitutive model parameters with Neo-Hookean and Mooney-Rivlin formulations.