Quarterly Projection Model For The National Bank Of Rwanda
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Quarterly Projection Model For The National Bank Of Rwanda
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Author : Mr.Jan Vlcek
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-12-21
Quarterly Projection Model For The National Bank Of Rwanda written by Mr.Jan Vlcek and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-21 with Business & Economics categories.
National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.
Rwanda
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-20
Rwanda written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
In response to a request from the National Bank of Rwanda and in accordance with the AFE workplan, a virtual technical assistance (TA) mission on Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) took place during December 12–21, 2022. The objectives of the mission were twofold: (i) to further strengthen the nowcasting framework for GDP and CPI inflation, and (ii) to initiate the work on developing a simple, efficient, and robust process for forecasting the external variables for the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The new CPI nowcasting system now includes the monthly forecasts of ten subgroups of the core CPI inflation, as well as two subgroups of food inflation, enabling the assessment of the key drivers of inflation and the nature of inflation shocks. Similarly, the new GDP nowcasting system covers production in different sectors and significantly improves the forecasting results.
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Quarterly Projection Model For Vietnam A Hybrid Approach For Monetary Policy Implementation
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Author : Mr. Natan P. Epstein
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-24
Quarterly Projection Model For Vietnam A Hybrid Approach For Monetary Policy Implementation written by Mr. Natan P. Epstein and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
Rwanda Fourth Review Of The Policy Coordination Instrument And Request Of An Extension Of The Policy Coordination Instrument Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Rwanda
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-07-23
Rwanda Fourth Review Of The Policy Coordination Instrument And Request Of An Extension Of The Policy Coordination Instrument Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Rwanda written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Recent economic developments. Despite a sizeable policy response, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact Rwanda’s economy and social fabric, with output contracting by 3.4 percent in 2020. The vaccine rollout is expected to help counter the pandemic and support the economic recovery, but risks remain elevated. While progress was made in several reform areas, some envisaged reforms are being delayed. The authorities requested the extension of the program by one year to make progress on ongoing reforms and policies to support the economic recovery and meet their fiscal consolidation and debt objectives. Rwanda received debt relief under the third tranche of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT).
Rwanda
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Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-29
Rwanda written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
The economy has emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic with scars that would likely take time to reverse. Supported by the authorities’ policy support, growth rebounded strongly to 10.9 percent in 2021. Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are compounding pandemic challenges by weighing on growth, increasing inflationary pressures and social needs, and straining fiscal balances amid high uncertainty and rising food insecurity concerns. Lower external demand and higher global commodity prices are projected to lower growth to 6 percent in 2022. Headline inflation is projected to rise from 0.8 percent in 2021 to 9.5 percent in 2022, exceeding the central bank’s benchmark level (5 percent). The National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) raised the policy rate by 50 basis points in February 2022. While the near-term outlook is marred by uncertainty from the geopolitical risks that could prolong the spillovers from the war in Ukraine, the medium-term outlook remains favorable, supported by the authorities’ commitment to structural reforms. The change in World Bank financing terms under IDA20 will increase the volume of loans, hence the debt-to-GDP ratio for Rwanda, but given the higher concessionality of the loans, the expected impact on the present value of debt path is marginal.
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-23
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model Credit Cycle Macrofinancial Linkages And Macroprudential Measures The Case Of The Philippines
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Author : Mr. Philippe D Karam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model Credit Cycle Macrofinancial Linkages And Macroprudential Measures The Case Of The Philippines written by Mr. Philippe D Karam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.
Monetary Policy In Rwanda
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Author : Thomas Kigabo Rusuhuzwa
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-07
Monetary Policy In Rwanda written by Thomas Kigabo Rusuhuzwa and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This book analyzes evolution of monetary policy in Rwanda since it was first implemented by the National Bank of Rwanda in 1964 when the bank was established. It contributes to the understanding of monetary policy which is formulation and implementation in different stages of development of a financial system that comprises the financial market (money market and capital market), financial intermediaries such as commercial banks, and the financial sector infrastructures such as payment systems and the credit reference bureau. The book breaks down applied empirical research on the assessment of key assumptions of a monetary targeting framework, namely the stability of money multiplier and money demand using econometrics of time series, through a number of case studies. Presenting a detailed empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism, one of the most analyzed topics in central banks in advanced economies, this book is a valuable read for central bankers and other researchers of monetary policy, particularly in developing economies.
Rwanda
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2005-09-13
Rwanda written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper focuses on Rwanda’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Macroeconomic performance of Rwanda remains broadly on track. Real growth in 2004 is estimated at 4 percent, mainly driven by strong activity in construction, transport, and communication. Policy implementation remained satisfactory. All but two performance criteria for the fifth review were met. Both deviations were temporary, and IMF staff recommends waivers.