Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Ghana
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-09-20
Ghana written by International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-20 with categories.
This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year Bank of Ghana (BOG) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2019 and mid-2024 over a total of seven missions, three in-person and four virtual. The project has focused on upgrading and building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications. BOG staff has made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset in providing analytical support to the policymakers. Model-based work plays an important role in the BOG internal deliberations and represents the key input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation, including in regular external communications. Remaining recommendations relate to ensuring FPAS work sustainability and further streamline external communications.
Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks In The Caucasus And Central Asia
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Author : Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-08-28
Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks In The Caucasus And Central Asia written by Mr. Tigran Poghosyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown in key trading partners. In this context, CCA countries’ ability to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations hinges on the credibility and effectiveness of their monetary policy frameworks. Since gaining independence in the 1990s, countries in the CCA region have made considerable progress in modernizing their monetary policy frameworks. CCA central banks have strengthened their legal frameworks and established broad de-jure independence. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan are transitioning to inflation targeting regimes, while the central banks of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely on the exchange rate as an operational target. However, the post-COVID surge in inflation has highlighted the limitations of current frameworks and triggered a fresh policy debate on the need to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness in the CCA. This paper reviews the CCA region’s monetary policy landscape, highlights challenges in monetary policy design and implementation, and identifies areas that warrant strengthening. It draws on original surveys of country authorities, IMF country teams, and the work by Unsal and others (2022). It uses novel empirical work to analyze monetary policy transmission, the link between foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate dynamics, the drivers of financial de-dollarization, and the effects of central bank communication in the CCA.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-11-15
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-11-15 with categories.
The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-09-02
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.
A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga
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Author : Mr. Sam Ouliaris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-06-20
A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga written by Mr. Sam Ouliaris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-06-20 with categories.
This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of domestic output, core inflation and interest rates, as well as Tonga’s monetary policy transmission. It is then used to study three scenarios and assess their impact on the baseline. The first scenario involves shocks proxying for a bank failure. The second scenario introduces shocks that simulate the consequences of a natural disaster. Finally, the third scenario introduces shocks that represent a significant negative external shock on Tonga. These shocks were chosen to reflect the sensitivity of Tonga to adverse financial shocks, to their trading partners’ macroeconomic policies, and to extreme weather events.
Republic Of Armenia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-14
Republic Of Armenia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
Suriname
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-01-21
Suriname written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-01-21 with categories.
2024 Selected Issues
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model For The Central Bank Of Jordan
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Author : Adel Al-Sharkas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-08-25
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model For The Central Bank Of Jordan written by Adel Al-Sharkas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.