Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-23
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Monetary Policy Implementation Operational Issues For Countries With Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks
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Author : Nils Mæhle
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-07
Monetary Policy Implementation Operational Issues For Countries With Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks written by Nils Mæhle and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses operational issues for countries that want to reform their monetary policy frameworks. It argues that stabilizing short-term interest rates on a day-to-day basis has significant advantages, and thus that short-term interest rates, not reserve money, in most cases should be the daily operating target, including for countries relying on a money targeting policy strategy. The paper discusses how a policy formulation framework based on monetary aggregates can be combined with an operational framework that ensures more stable and predictable short-term rates to enhance policy transmission. It also discusses how to best configure an interest-rate-based operational framework when markets are underdeveloped and liqudity management capacity is weak.
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016 Financial Statements
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-27
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016 Financial Statements written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper outlines that the IMF is exposed to various types of operational and financial risks, including credit, market, liquidity, and income risks. The Executive Board of the IMF has overall responsibility for the establishment and oversight of the IMF’s risk management framework. The risk management framework encompasses primarily strategic, financial, and operational risks. As part of this framework, the Advisory Committee on Risk Management (ACRM) has been established to analyze, synthesize, and report on risks. Credit risk on credit outstanding refers to potential losses owing to the failure of member countries to make repurchases. Credit risk is inherent in the IMF's unique role in the international monetary system since the IMF has limited ability to diversify its loan portfolio and generally provides financing when other sources are not available to a member. Measures to help mitigate the IMF's credit risk include policies on access limits, program design, monitoring, and economic policies that members agree to follow as a condition for IMF financing; early repurchase policies; and preventative, precautionary, remedial measures and precautionary balances to cope with the financial consequences of protracted arrears.
Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Author : Mr. Andrew Berg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-10
Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis written by Mr. Andrew Berg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks In The Caucasus And Central Asia
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Author : Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-08-28
Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks In The Caucasus And Central Asia written by Mr. Tigran Poghosyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown in key trading partners. In this context, CCA countries’ ability to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations hinges on the credibility and effectiveness of their monetary policy frameworks. Since gaining independence in the 1990s, countries in the CCA region have made considerable progress in modernizing their monetary policy frameworks. CCA central banks have strengthened their legal frameworks and established broad de-jure independence. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan are transitioning to inflation targeting regimes, while the central banks of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely on the exchange rate as an operational target. However, the post-COVID surge in inflation has highlighted the limitations of current frameworks and triggered a fresh policy debate on the need to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness in the CCA. This paper reviews the CCA region’s monetary policy landscape, highlights challenges in monetary policy design and implementation, and identifies areas that warrant strengthening. It draws on original surveys of country authorities, IMF country teams, and the work by Unsal and others (2022). It uses novel empirical work to analyze monetary policy transmission, the link between foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate dynamics, the drivers of financial de-dollarization, and the effects of central bank communication in the CCA.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-09-02
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.
Inflation In Tajikistan
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Author : Svetlana Vtyurina
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-01-01
Inflation In Tajikistan written by Svetlana Vtyurina and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.
Quarterly Projection Model For India
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Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-02-13
Quarterly Projection Model For India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.