Real Estate Price Bubbles As Irrational Exuberance A Critical Analysis Of The German Real Estate Market
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Real Estate Price Bubbles As Irrational Exuberance A Critical Analysis Of The German Real Estate Market
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Author : Luca Dominikat
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2023-05-17
Real Estate Price Bubbles As Irrational Exuberance A Critical Analysis Of The German Real Estate Market written by Luca Dominikat and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, grade: 1,3, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, language: English, abstract: The development of real estate prices is of extraordinary importance for the financial and economic system, as undesirable developments could endanger financial stability, as seen in the subprime crisis, which eventually evolved into a global financial crisis. The same month the dot-com bubble burst, the Nobel Prize winner and current book author Robert J. Shiller published the non-fictional, bestselling first edition of his book, named "Irrational Exuberance", in which he explains his research on the occurrences and the causes of historical financial crises, while supplementing the conclusions with aspects of behavioural finance and social studies. As Shiller’s assertions are mainly based on the US market, research has been conducted to clarify whether his housing index and the concept of irrational exuberance can be applied to the German real estate market. By the detailed consideration of selected aspects of the book in connection with the conception of academic literature, this thesis finds that his ideas can principally be transferred to assess whether the German real estate market currently exhibits bubbly tendencies. This assessment is conducted, however, there are limitations in the sole consideration as an indicator as well as in the critical evaluation of the German real estate market.
Real Estate Bubble In Germany The German Residential Real Estate Market For The Presence Of A Bubble
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Author : Kilian Köberlein
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2022-09-01
Real Estate Bubble In Germany The German Residential Real Estate Market For The Presence Of A Bubble written by Kilian Köberlein and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, , language: English, abstract: The starting point for this thesis and the associated question were price developments observable on the residential property market as well as increased media reporting. Against this background, the following question was examined with scientific methods within the framework of this thesis: Is a bubble formation recognisable in the German residential real estate market and what regional differences can be identified in answering this question? As a first step, price-influencing factors were examined in more detail and the price development relative to annual rent ratio, income and construction costs was examined. In addition, the effect of the ECB's interest rate policy and the interplay between property prices, monetary policy and asset price inflation were analysed. Hereby it became apparent that the significant price increase for residential property since 2010, and especially accelerated since 2016, can be explained against the backdrop of the extremely low interest rate level and the considerable expansion of money supply. In order to be able to identify price bubbles on the residential property market in a measurable and comprehensible way, the price development was analysed in a second step with the mathematical procedure according to Diba and Grossmann, which uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The procedure is based on the premise that the price of a good is related to its fundamental value. To examine the price development in the residential property market, the fundamental value used for comparison purposes is derived from the development of the rent price index, the index of average gross monthly earnings and the construction cost index. The house price index was used as a price indicator for residential property. With the help of the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Test, the development of the various indices was examined and compared with regard to their degree of stationarity. This investigation was carried out for the overall German residential real estate market in the observation period 2010-2021 in order to obtain an up-to-date picture. For the period under consideration from 01.01.2010 to 31.12.2021, a price bubble was not confirmed on the overall German residential property market.
The German Residential Real Estate Market And The Presence Of A Bubble
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Author :
language : de
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2023-01-26
The German Residential Real Estate Market And The Presence Of A Bubble written by and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Masterarbeit aus dem Jahr 2022 im Fachbereich VWL - Immobilienwirtschaft, Note: 1,7, Fachhochschule Kufstein Tirol (International Business Studies), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The starting point for this thesis and the associated question were price developments observable on the residential property market as well as increased media reporting. Against this background, the following question was examined with scientific methods within the framework of this work: Is a bubble formation recognisable on the German real estate market and what regional differences can be identified in answering this question? As a first step, price-influencing factors were examined in more detail and the price development relative to annual rent ratio, income and construction costs was examined. In order to be able to identify price bubbles on the residential property market in a measurable and comprehensible way, the price development was analysed in a second step with the mathematical procedure according to Diba and Grossmann, which uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The procedure is based on the premise that the price of a good is related to its fundamental value. To examine the price development in the residential property market, the fundamental value used for comparison purposes is derived from the development of the rent price index, the index of average gross monthly earnings and the construction cost index. The house price index was used as a price indicator for residential property. With the help of the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Test, the development of the various indices was examined and compared with regard to their degree of stationarity. This investigation was carried out for the overall German residential real estate market in the observation period 2010-2021 in order to obtain an up-to-date picture.
Real Estate In Germany Boom Or Bubble
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Author : Valonita Berisha
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2020-03-02
Real Estate In Germany Boom Or Bubble written by Valonita Berisha and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,7, University of Applied Sciences Frankfurt am Main, language: English, abstract: The main question which results through the theme is: “Are German real estates overvalued or can the development on the market be explained by macro-economic factors?” To be able to answer this question it is necessary to firstly define what a bubble is and further analyze general criteria which can lead to it. After that an analyzation of possible indicators which are linked to the two largest housing bubbles: the The Subprime Crisis in in the USA of the former decade and the housing bubble in Japan in the middle of the 90s will be done and a comparison of those crises will be given. Based on those findings the development of the current real estate situation of Germany and an overall evaluation of possible legal and political instruments which are supposed to protect from a pricing bubble will be done. The findings are based on literature review and include an empirical part with expert interviews when it comes to the risk of having a housing bubble specifically in Germany.
Bubbles In Real Estate
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Author : Daniel Gros
language : en
Publisher: CEPS
Release Date : 2006
Bubbles In Real Estate written by Daniel Gros and has been published by CEPS this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Housing categories.
Understanding German Real Estate Markets
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Author : Tobias Just
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-01-03
Understanding German Real Estate Markets written by Tobias Just and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Real estate is the biggest real asset class in an economy, and Germany is the biggest economy in Europe. This implies opportunities as well as specific risks for investors and policy makers. As the German real estate markets have by and large been spared severe disruptions in the course of the economic crisis, many questions arise for investors and academics alike. What are the key institutional characteristics of the German real estate markets that make it different? What are the short and long-term drivers of demand and supply? Which regional and functional market segments are most likely to outperform in the next few years? What are the most important pitfalls for investors in Germany? This book gives answers to these and many more questions. The editors have invited a broad range of extensively knowledgeable practitioners and academics from across the relevant real estate spectrum, i.e. economic, legal, tax, planning and financing issues, to express their views. There is no better English publication that gives such a profound and simultaneously entertaining overview of Germany’s real estate markets.
Explaining Real Estate Prices In Germany
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Author : Nicolas Heinitz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Explaining Real Estate Prices In Germany written by Nicolas Heinitz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This thesis investigates German residential housing prices on both a national and regional level covering Hamburg and Munich as two major cities. A qualitative analysis of real estate market and the German housing market in particular reveals that real estate markets are highly fragmented and that they feature unique characteristics. The main part of this thesis applies econometric approaches trying to explain house price movements and to identify possible price bubbles during the observation period from 1990 until 2011. For this purpose a ratio analysis, a regression model and a cointegration analysis are used. These three approaches lead to the conclusion that residential house prices are mainly driven by the corresponding rents and to some extent influenced by the unemployment rate and the number of households in certain regression models. Additionally, the examination of residential house prices reveals that prices on the national and regional level remain constant or even slightly fall in real terms. This fact and the comparison of house prices with several fundamental factors show that there is no evidence for a price bubble in Germany.
Are Properties In Munich Partially Overvalued An Investigation Of Local Real Estate Bubbles And Price Development Within The Districts
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Author : Florian Rühlemann
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2014-07-25
Are Properties In Munich Partially Overvalued An Investigation Of Local Real Estate Bubbles And Price Development Within The Districts written by Florian Rühlemann and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 1,3, University of Regensburg (Lehrstuhl für Immobilienfinanzierung (International Real Estate Business School, University Ratisborn)), language: English, abstract: The burst of the US- real estate bubble in the year 2008 has contributed significantly to the global financial crisis, from which the global economy is still recovering from. In the US, housing prices collapsed after years of increase, which led to credit de-faults and the collapse of the banking system. The subprime crisis, however, was only the highlight of a great new set of consequential price bubbles on international real estate means, which could be seen to swap over to Spain as well as Ireland. This poses the question whether real estate bubbles might exist in Germany. The opinions of the nation are divided. The German city investigated particularly in this article is Munich, since prices are at an all-time high and have been rising continuously during the last decades. To be more specific, this master thesis aims to identify whether there is a local real estate bubble within the German city Munich. This is done by regressing two sets of data and using a stock-flow model in order to determine the relationship between housing prices and explanatory macroeconomic variables: The first set is a time series regression on a whole city perspective within the years 1975 and 2013. The second set is a panel data analysis on district basis within the years 2000 to 2012. Results suggest that in the first set condominium prices are moderately and rowhouse prices are slightly overvalued in Munich, especially in the recent years. The results of the second set illustrate an overvaluation of condominium prices on a slightly lesser level.
The Housing Bubble
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Author : Kieran Trass
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2009-08-03
The Housing Bubble written by Kieran Trass and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-08-03 with Business & Economics categories.
After a long-running property market boom, all indications are that New Zealand is facing at least half a decade of slow or declining values. This trend is mirrored in most countries across the globe. Kieran Trass, real estate investor, advisor and commentator, reassures us that yes, we can still make money at all stages of the property cycle - slump, recovery and boom. The key is having the right knowledge and information. The Housing Bubble addresses all your real-estate questions, including:'How will we know when the slump is coming to an end?''When is it a good time to buy?' and'When will we see market recovery?
Real Estate Market In Berlin Is There Any Bubble
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Author : Simon Sparber
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2016-02-04
Real Estate Market In Berlin Is There Any Bubble written by Simon Sparber and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 2, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano , language: English, abstract: Latterly the capital of Germany alludes to a potential real estate bubble. Does the strong price increase of 73 % on average between 2007 and 2013 really rely on speculative market behaviour or is the trend rather determined by fundamental factors? In order to find this out, the following paper examines several determinants of demand for residential objects through a qualitative analysis. Relevant determinants such as supply of credit, demographic aspects, income and economic growth, real long term interest rates and monetary policy, rent prices, substitution goods as well as the factor of expectations of the future house price development were investigated by means of empirical analysis. Anyways, the unclear result argues in favour of a price increase mainly caused by the fundamental factors. Aim of the thesis is to get a better knowledge on the assessment of bubble existence in housing markets. According to mainstream economics, the process itself is considered relatively difficult. However, an advantage of such a work is that I can eventually use the gained information to implement a real project in the future. In addition, this kind of problem approach could then be used for other markets as well: proving a price increase, finding out how it came about, discovering if its factors consist in a bubble risk or not. Aim of the thesis isn't neither to determine if, how and when a possible bubble will burst, nor examining its effects on the overall economy. From the point of view of a relatively risk averse investor, namely, already the fact that a bubble may exist should be enough reason not to go for an investment in such a market. The reason why I look at a single region instead of an entire country is that plenty of past housing bubbles began to arise in single parts of lands and then eventually expanded to the whole country or even to a whole continent like it happened in the case of the US in 2007. House price dynamics are a local phenomenon, and national-level data conceal crucial economic differences among cities (Himmelberg et al., 2005). This thesis refers to residential properties and not to commercial properties such as office buildings, industrial, retail or restaurants. However, I'm going to put prices of existing properties and new properties together since new buildings only account for a little part in this market (Sparber, 2014).