Recent U S Labor Force Dynamics

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Recent U S Labor Force Dynamics

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Author : Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-04-02

Recent U S Labor Force Dynamics written by Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-02 with Business & Economics categories.

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around 1⁄4–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement).

United States

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-07-23

United States written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-23 with Business & Economics categories.

This Selected Issues paper on the United States of America examines the recent US labor force penetration rate (LFPR) dynamics. LFPR dynamics can be driven by structural factors and cyclical ones related to job prospects. With participation rates for older workers lower than for prime age workers, demographic models suggest that aging of the baby boom generation explains about 50 percent of the near 3p.p. LFPR decline during 2007–2013. State-level panel regression analysis is used to tie down the cyclical effect, which is estimated to account for about 30–40 percent of the decline. Significant remaining slack in the labor market points to an important role for macroeconomic and labor supply policies. This suggests a still important role for stimulative macroeconomic policies to help reach full employment. Macroeconomic policy should remain accommodative for a while given sizeable labor market slack. This slack goes beyond that signaled by the unemployment rate and takes account of the LFPR being below trend and many employees working part time ‘involuntarily’.

Permanently Displaced Increasingly Disconnected Labor Force Participation In U S States And Metropolitan Areas

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Author : Benjamin Hilgenstock
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-21

Permanently Displaced Increasingly Disconnected Labor Force Participation In U S States And Metropolitan Areas written by Benjamin Hilgenstock and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-21 with Business & Economics categories.

The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. National averages furthermore conceal considerable within-country heterogeneity. This paper explores regional differences to shed light on drivers of participation rates at the state and metropolitan area levels. It documents a broad-based decline, especially pronounced outside metropolitan areas. Using novel measures of local vulnerability to trade and technology it finds that metropolitan areas with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced larger drops in participation in 2000-2016. Thus, areas with different occupational mixes can experience divergent labor market trajectories as a result of trade and technology.

Measuring U S Labor Market Dynamics

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Author : Christopher J. Nekarda
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008

Measuring U S Labor Market Dynamics written by Christopher J. Nekarda and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Labor market categories.

This dissertation develops new data and methods for properly measuring U.S. labor market dynamics using large, nationally-representative household surveys. These data are used to assess potential biases arising from time aggregation and from geographic mobility. Time aggregation is estimated using weekly labor force information from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The degree of time aggregation is large: gross flows estimated from monthly data understate the true number of transitions by 20 percent on average. However, time aggregation creates no meaningful cyclical bias in measured gross flows or hazard rates. Separation hazard rates calculated from the SIPP and the Current Population Survey (CPS) are strongly countercyclical and remain so after adjusting for time aggregation. Using a new database that captures all longitudinal information in the CPS individuals who move can be identified. Comparing the behavior of the entire CPS sample with the subset known not to have moved provides a bound to the bias from geographic mobility. The cyclical bias from geographic mobility is small. At business cycle frequencies, the difference between the separation hazard rate calculated from the entire CPS sample and from a subset that are known not to have moved never exceeds 4 percent. There is little effect of mobility on the job finding hazard rate. The weekly SIPP data identify direct employment-to-employment (EE) transitions. Abstracting from labor force participation, EE transitions account for one-half of all separations from employment. Similar estimates using the CPS are twice as large however the CPS overstates EE transitions because of time aggregation. Separations to a new job are strongly procyclical while separations to unemployment are strongly countercyclical. The combination yields a nearly acyclical total separation rate. The weekly job finding rate is strongly procyclical.

Understanding U S Wage Dynamics

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Author : Mr.Yasser Abdih
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-15

Understanding U S Wage Dynamics written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.

In this paper, we undertake empirical analysis to understand U.S. wage behavior since the beginning of the new millennium. At the macroeconomic level, we find that a productivity-augmented Phillips curve model explains the data fairly well. The model reveals that the upward pressure on wage growth from recent tightening in the labor market has been dampened by a persistent decline in trend labor productivity growth and the share of income that accrues to labor. These themes are reinforced and complemented at the micro-economic level. Lower regional unemployment puts an upward pressure on wages of individuals, although this effect has become weaker since 2008. But there is downward pressure on wages for individuals with occupations that are exposed to automation and offshoring, and in industries with a higher concentration of large firms. All these factors appear to play a role illustrating why it is difficult to single out any one culprit for the observed wage growth moderation.

Labor Force Definition And Measurement

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Author : Louis Jay Ducoff
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1947

Labor Force Definition And Measurement written by Louis Jay Ducoff and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1947 with Employment (Economic theory) categories.

Three Aspects Of Labor Dynamics

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Author : Wladimir S. Woytinsky
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1942

Three Aspects Of Labor Dynamics written by Wladimir S. Woytinsky and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1942 with Labor categories.

Labor Force Dynamics

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Author : J. Kenneth White
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979

Labor Force Dynamics written by J. Kenneth White and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Labor market categories.

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling The Truth Role Of Measurement Error In The U S Current Population Survey

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Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-26

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling The Truth Role Of Measurement Error In The U S Current Population Survey written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-26 with Business & Economics categories.

Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Longitudinal Surveys And Labor Market Analysis

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Author : Edward D. Kalachek
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1978

Longitudinal Surveys And Labor Market Analysis written by Edward D. Kalachek and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Government publications categories.