Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management
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Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management
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Author : Monenco Consultants
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management written by Monenco Consultants and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Forest insects categories.
Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management
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Author : Gerrit C. Van Kooten
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988
Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management written by Gerrit C. Van Kooten and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Forest management categories.
Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management Choosing A Method Of Analysis
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Author : Van Kooten, G. C. (Gerrit C.)
language : en
Publisher: Saskatoon : Saskatchewan Research Council
Release Date : 1988
Risk And Uncertainty In Forest Management Choosing A Method Of Analysis written by Van Kooten, G. C. (Gerrit C.) and has been published by Saskatoon : Saskatchewan Research Council this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Forest management categories.
Risk Analysis In Forest Management
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Author : Klaus von Gadow
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Risk Analysis In Forest Management written by Klaus von Gadow and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Nature categories.
Due to the long-term planning horizons and the great variety of natural, economic, and operational hazards affecting forest ecosystems, uncertainty and multiple risk are typical aspects of forest management. Applications of risk analysis are surprisingly rare, in spite of the rich assortment of sophisticated forest planning tools that are available today. The objective of this particular volume within the book series Managing Forest Ecosystems is to present state-of-the-art research results, concepts, and techniques regarding the assessment and evaluation of natural hazards and the analysis of risk and uncertainty relating to forest management. Various aspects of risk analysis are covered, including examples of specific modelling tools. The book is divided into three sections covering ecological perspectives, applications in engineering and planning, and methods applicable to economics and policy.
Coping With Uncertainty
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Author : Roger D. Fight
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Coping With Uncertainty written by Roger D. Fight and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Forest management categories.
Consideration Of Uncertainty In Forest Management Decision Making
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Author : Emmett Frank Thompson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1966
Consideration Of Uncertainty In Forest Management Decision Making written by Emmett Frank Thompson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1966 with Decision making categories.
Management decisions are generally considered to be made under one of three categories of future knowledge: certainty, risk, or uncertainty. All three categories occur in forest management. However, forest management decisions whose outcomes are dependent upon future levels of timber yields, prices, utilization standards, or social and legal institutions are made under uncertainty. Forest managers have always recognized that uncertainty existed; however, they have not systematically included it in their decision- making process. The objectives of the study were to: (1) establish the importance of systematically considering uncertainty in forest management decision-making and (2) illustrate and evaluate a model or procedure, for the systematic consideration of uncertainty in forest management decision-making. A review of the present status of forest management decision-making constituted fulfillment of the first objective. Theoretical decision-making models which are currently used in forest management, e. g., present worth analysis, capital budgeting, financial maturity, and linear programming, while conceptually capable of considering uncertainty, imply certainty That is, forestry applications of these models have employed single-valued expectations. Fulfillment of the second objective consisted initially of a review of recent developments in the theory of decision-making under uncertainty. All decision-making problems have some common components. These components are: decision-alternatives, the actions which the decision-maker deems possible to take; states of nature, the future events which determine the outcome of the actions; and consequences, the result of taking a specific action and finding that a particular state occurs. The more popular theoretical models for decision-making under uncertainty were reviewed: minimax, minimax regret, Hurwicz index, and Laplace. While useful in some cases, each of these models has specific disadvantages. In addition, all the models have one common major disadvantage, they contain the implicit assumption that the decision-maker is completely ignorant about the states of nature which influence his problem. In reality, forest managers and other decision-makers usually possess some information, although it may be vague, about their problems. If a decision-maker is not willing to assume complete ignorance about the occurrence of the states of nature, he cannot apply any of the above models. There is a theoretical decision-making model which appears compatible with reality. The model, Bayesian decision theory, allows the decision-maker to arrive at a solution which is compatible with his opinions or judgements about the states of nature. Also, he can combine these opinions or judgements with experimental data to derive a solution using all available information, both subjective and objective. Fulfillment of the second objective was completed by illustrating the application of Bayesian decision theory to a hypothetical problem. The problem, optimal degree of land ownership for an industrial forestry firm, was defined within the Bayesian model and a solution derived. Since the problem was hypothetical, the actual solution is not the primary result of the study. The resulting implications for actual situations is the primary contribution. If forest managers are to make decisions which contain uncertainty, the uncertainty should be systematically recognized in the decision-making process. The Bayesian model is a logical procedure for such recognition. By adopting and applying such models, the efficiency of forest management decision-making will be increased.
Planning Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Nicklas Forsell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Planning Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Nicklas Forsell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Uncertainty Risk And Forest Management On The Tillamook State Forest
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Author : Hendrik C. Stander
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Uncertainty Risk And Forest Management On The Tillamook State Forest written by Hendrik C. Stander and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Forest management is typically associated with a high degree of uncertainty, since it relies on predictions of natural growth processes over long periods of time. A number of methods exist for mitigating the risk associated with this uncertainty, but few have the ability to explicitly minimize risk. This study will present a case study on dealing with uncertainty and risk in an applied setting. The selected study area was the Tillamook State Forest, located in northwest Oregon. The primary objectives were to quantify the uncertainty and assess its impact on forest management. An additional objective was to assess the application of non-linear probabilistic programming on a large forest management problem. Uncertainty was quantified through regression models that predicted actual outcomes from planned outcomes, as well as the error associated with predictions of actual outcomes. The effects of uncertainty on forest management were assessed through two chance-constrained programming formulations. One maximized the harvest volume under a given level of risk, and the other minimized the maximum level of risk associated with a given forest management plan. Both were subject to sustainable inventory and forest structure constraints. The results showed that these models could substantially increase the probability of achieving a given forest management outcome, at the cost of only a minimal deviation (4 to 6%) from the risk neutral position. These results were however in contrast to an analysis of risk preferences, which showed significant differences in the outcomes associated with various levels of risk. This indicated that uncertainty could not be considered without the decision maker's attitude towards risk. In addition, post-optimality analysis of the model results showed that correlated yield coefficients had an insignificant impact, and that the assumption of zero covariance was justified for this study. Finally, it was also demonstrated that chance- constrained programming can be applied to large scale forest management problems, but that the solvability of these problems were determined by the formulation type.
Decision Support For Forest Management
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Author : Annika Kangas
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-10-27
Decision Support For Forest Management written by Annika Kangas and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-27 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This updated and expanded second edition adds the most recent advances in participatory planning approaches and methods, giving special emphasis to decision support tools usable under uncertainty. The new edition places emphasis on the selection of criteria and creating alternatives in practical multi-criteria decision making problems.
Risk Management In Forest Planning
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Author : W. R. Dempster
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1987
Risk Management In Forest Planning written by W. R. Dempster and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with Forest conservation categories.