Short Term Tourism Forecasts
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Short Term Tourism Forecasts
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Author : Anthony Edwards
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Short Term Tourism Forecasts written by Anthony Edwards and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Business & Economics categories.
Inbound Tourism Short Term Scenarios
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Author : Tourism Forecasting Council
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Inbound Tourism Short Term Scenarios written by Tourism Forecasting Council and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Asia categories.
Chapter Short Term Forecasts On Time Series For Tourism In Lombardy
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Author : Elena Diceglie
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Chapter Short Term Forecasts On Time Series For Tourism In Lombardy written by Elena Diceglie and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
Data from official sources on nights spent in an accommodation for tourists in Lombardy are available until 2021. These data on touristic flows for 2020 and 2021 registered a clear downfall because of restrictions related to Covid-19. The aim of this paper is to verify the presence of a full or partial recover of tourists in provinces of Lombardy using short-term predictions for 2022. A time-series procedure has been applied to obtain a forecast estimate for 2022 using an ARMA model with the addition of an exogenous variable. The hypothesis at the basis of the model is that a punctual estimate of the touristic flows could be obtained using an auxiliary variable explaining the number of employees in the food services and hospitality industry. This auxiliary variable is represented as the difference between the number of starting work contracts and the contract terminations. These data are available thanks to the Informative system of mandatory communications provided by the Italian Minister of Labour. The availability of this information is daily guaranteed at level of single municipality but for the purpose of this paper, data have been aggregated at province level. The short-term predictions obtained for 2022 have been used to verify the presence of a recovery respect to the pandemic emergency of Covid-19 using a double growth rate. A first growth rate has been computed comparing the number of estimated tourists respect to the 2021 measuring the existence of a rebound after the restrictions. A second growth rate measured the estimates for 2021 respect to the presences of 2019 to monitor the trends in Lombardy compared to the before Covid-19 period. Preliminary results showed an evident upswing respect to 2021 and a partial recovery respect to 2019 for the majority of Lombard provinces.
Methodology For Short Term Forecasts Of Tourism Flows
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Author : R. Liepa
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Methodology For Short Term Forecasts Of Tourism Flows written by R. Liepa and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Tourism categories.
Using Scenarios In Forecasting
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Author : Allison Rossetto
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Using Scenarios In Forecasting written by Allison Rossetto and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Tourism categories.
The Future Of Tourism
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Author :
language : de
Publisher:
Release Date : 1971
The Future Of Tourism written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1971 with categories.
Handbook On Tourism Forecasting Methods
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Author : World Tourism Organization
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Handbook On Tourism Forecasting Methods written by World Tourism Organization and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Business forecasting categories.
Modeling And Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals To Aruba Since Covid 19 Pandemic
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Author : Olga Bespalova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-11-11
Modeling And Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals To Aruba Since Covid 19 Pandemic written by Olga Bespalova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
The Future Of Tourism
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Author : International Union of Official Travel Organisations
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1970
The Future Of Tourism written by International Union of Official Travel Organisations and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1970 with Tourism categories.
Forecasting Tourism Demand
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Author : Douglas Frechtling
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2012-05-23
Forecasting Tourism Demand written by Douglas Frechtling and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-23 with Business & Economics categories.
'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition. Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry. 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to: * plan a forecasting project * analyse time series and other information * select the appropriate forecasting model * use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.