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Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus

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Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus

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Author : Karel Musil
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-07

Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus written by Karel Musil and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus

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Author : Karel Musil
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-07

Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems

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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993

Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

A Projection Model For Resource Rich And Dollarized Economy The Democratic Republic Of The Congo

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Author : Victor Musa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-06-21

A Projection Model For Resource Rich And Dollarized Economy The Democratic Republic Of The Congo written by Victor Musa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-06-21 with categories.

The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.

Republic Of Belarus

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-15

Republic Of Belarus written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-15 with Business & Economics categories.

This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.

Republic Of Belarus

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-29

Republic Of Belarus written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.

The Belarus authorities are moving in the direction of a flexible exchange rate system supported by an inflation-targeting (IT) regime, which would have significant benefits for the economy. A full-fledged IT framework (FFIT) requires a number of essential building blocks, which could be viewed as components of sound macroeconomic management. There are three additional features that could interfere with the IT regime. Some of the building blocks are essentially prerequisites for a successful launch of the IT regime; others could be developed (or fine-tuned) during early stages of IT implementation.

Country Report

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999

Country Report written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Belarus categories.

Republic Of Belarus

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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-17

Republic Of Belarus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-17 with Business & Economics categories.

The Belarusian economy is in a cyclical recovery, inflation is at historically low levels and the exchange rate has been broadly stable. Although macroeconomic policy frameworks have improved, there is a need to reduce deep seated vulnerabilities such as rapidly rising public debt, high dollarization, and limited trade and financing diversification. In addition, reforms of the large state-owned enterprise sector are critical to tackle inefficiencies and increase potential growth. Risks ahead are elevated; notably, Belarus could lose significant oil-related discounts and transfers due to internal tax changes in Russia, but the authorities are confident of a successful outcome to the ongoing negotiations.

Europe And Central Asia Economic Update Spring 2022

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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-04-10

Europe And Central Asia Economic Update Spring 2022 written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-10 with Business & Economics categories.

In February 2022, the world was shocked by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The war is having a devastating impact on human life and causing economic destruction in both countries, and will lead to significant economic losses in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region and the rest of the world. It comes at a particularly vulnerable time for ECA as its economic recovery was expected to be held back by scarring from the pandemic and lingering structural weaknesses. The economic impact of the conflict has reverberated through multiple channels, including commodity and financial markets, trade and migration links, and the damaging impact on confidence. Moreover, the war has added to mounting concerns about a sharp global slowdown, surging inflation and debt, and a spike in poverty levels. Neighboring ECA countries are likely to suffer considerable economic damage because of their strong trade, financial, and migration links with Russia and Ukraine. The war is also causing a destabilizing wave of refugees, financial stresses in vulnerable countries, runaway inflation expectations, and food insecurity. A protracted conflict could further heighten policy uncertainty and fragment critical trade and investment networks.

Inflation In Tajikistan

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Author : Svetlana Vtyurina
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-01-01

Inflation In Tajikistan written by Svetlana Vtyurina and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.

Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus

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