Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus
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Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus
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Author : Karel Musil
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-07
Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus written by Karel Musil and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.
Republic Of Belarus
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-15
Republic Of Belarus written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-15 with Business & Economics categories.
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
Quarterly Projection Model For The National Bank Of Rwanda
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Author : Mr.Jan Vlcek
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-12-21
Quarterly Projection Model For The National Bank Of Rwanda written by Mr.Jan Vlcek and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-21 with Business & Economics categories.
National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Republic Of Belarus
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-15
Republic Of Belarus written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model For Sri Lanka
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Author : Chandranath Amarasekara
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-25
An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model For Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.
Dissecting Taylor Rules In A Structural Var
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Author : Woon Gyu Choi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-01-01
Dissecting Taylor Rules In A Structural Var written by Woon Gyu Choi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
Quarterly Projection Model For India
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Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-02-13
Quarterly Projection Model For India written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Measuring Output Gap Is It Worth Your Time
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Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-07
Measuring Output Gap Is It Worth Your Time written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-07 with Business & Economics categories.
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
World Economic Outlook October 2013
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-08
World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.