Tariffs And The Macroeconomy
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Tariffs And The Macroeconomy
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1989-09-08
Tariffs And The Macroeconomy written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. Existing theoretical models do not provide clear-cut predictions concerning the co-movement between unilateral tariff changes and a set of macroeconomic variables consisting of the real exchange rate, the trade balance, and the level of output. Three different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariffs have no statistically significant impact on the trade balance, the real exchange rate, or the level of output.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs
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Author : Jesper Lindé
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-07-07
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-07 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-15
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Import Tariffs And Trade Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Lukas Boer
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-01-19
The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Import Tariffs And Trade Policy Uncertainty written by Lukas Boer and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-19 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is –0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by 4% over three years. The findings imply higher gains of trade than partial equilibrium or static trade models.
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Industrial productivity categories.
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Trade Costs Market Integration And Macroeconomic Volatility
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Author : Mr.Kanda Naknoi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-03-01
Trade Costs Market Integration And Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Kanda Naknoi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.
Tariff Tax Reforms In Large Economies
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Author : Mr.Giovanni Ganelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-05-01
Tariff Tax Reforms In Large Economies written by Mr.Giovanni Ganelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies tariff-tax reforms in a calibrated two-region global New Keynesian model composed of a developing and an advanced region. In our baseline calibration, a revenue-neutral reform that lowers tariffs in developing countries can reduce domestic welfare. The reason is that the increase in developing countries welfare due to higher output is dominated by the welfare losses stemming from the deterioration of the terms of trade. On the other hand, the reform increases output and welfare in the advanced countries and in the world as a whole. The effects that we highlight have not been studied in previous contributions to the literature, which typically looks at tariff-tax reforms using a small open economy framework. Nominal rigidities have important implications for adjustment dynamics in our model. In the case of a "point-for-point" reform, for example, price stickiness implies that the international dynamics of output is reversed compared to a revenue neutral reform.
Free Trade Areas And Rules Of Origin
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Author : Mr.Arvind Panagariya
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-11-01
Free Trade Areas And Rules Of Origin written by Mr.Arvind Panagariya and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Incorporating intermediate inputs into a small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that the ROO could improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two interesting outcomes are derived. First, a welfare reducing FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO becomes feasible in the presence of these rules. Second, a welfare improving FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO is endorsed in their presence, but upon endorsement it becomes welfare inferior relative to the status quo.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs
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Author : Jesper Lindé
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Corruption And Trade Tariffs Or A Case For Uniform Tariffs
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Author : Roberta Gatti
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1999
Corruption And Trade Tariffs Or A Case For Uniform Tariffs written by Roberta Gatti and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with categories.
A highly diversified trade tariff menu may fuel bribe-taking behavior. Setting trade tariff rates at a uniform level limits public officials' ability to extract bribes from importers.