The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs
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The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs
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Author : Jesper Lindé
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-07-07
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-07 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.
The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Import Tariffs And Trade Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Lukas Boer
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-01-19
The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Import Tariffs And Trade Policy Uncertainty written by Lukas Boer and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-19 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is –0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by 4% over three years. The findings imply higher gains of trade than partial equilibrium or static trade models.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs
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Author : Jesper Lindé
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-15
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Macroeconomic Consequences Of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Industrial productivity categories.
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Tariffs And The Macroeconomy
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1989-09-08
Tariffs And The Macroeconomy written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. Existing theoretical models do not provide clear-cut predictions concerning the co-movement between unilateral tariff changes and a set of macroeconomic variables consisting of the real exchange rate, the trade balance, and the level of output. Three different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariffs have no statistically significant impact on the trade balance, the real exchange rate, or the level of output.
Microeconomic And Macroeconomic Effects Of Ttip Transatlantic Trade And Investment Partnership
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Author : Uwe Lebefromm
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2015-07-09
Microeconomic And Macroeconomic Effects Of Ttip Transatlantic Trade And Investment Partnership written by Uwe Lebefromm and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - Foreign Trade Theory, Trade Policy, grade: Excellent, University of Rijeka (Faculty of Economics), course: Postgradute Study for Specialized Master of Controlling, language: English, abstract: The first part is referred to the essential components of TTIP. These include the negotiating institutions, the central regulations and the objectives associated with it. Chapter three forms the core of this essay. In the first part microeconomic effects on selected sectors in the EU and USA are carried out. The used econometric model MIRAGE will be explained and the calculated results are demonstrated. In the second part of chapter three macroeconomic effects are considered, which have been calculated on the basis of the MELITZ model. The central sources of this chapter are the following studies: “Dimensions and Effects of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement between the EU and US. from IFO-institute in Munich. To address also effects to third countries, as an example two studies related to turkey and china are used. Chapter 5 gives a summary and check whether the hypothesis of this essay has been proofed.
Trade Costs Market Integration And Macroeconomic Volatility
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Author : Mr.Kanda Naknoi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-03-01
Trade Costs Market Integration And Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Kanda Naknoi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.
Trade Policy Income Risk And Welfare
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Author : Tom Krebs
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2005
Trade Policy Income Risk And Welfare written by Tom Krebs and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Commercial policy categories.
"This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk"--NBER website
The Effect Of Tariffs In Global Value Chains
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Author : Johannes Eugster
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-02-25
The Effect Of Tariffs In Global Value Chains written by Johannes Eugster and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.