Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery
DOWNLOAD
Download Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery
DOWNLOAD
Author : Norbert Funke
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008
Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery written by Norbert Funke and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.
Terms Of Trade Shocks And The Current Account
DOWNLOAD
Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-12-01
Terms Of Trade Shocks And The Current Account written by Mr.Paul Cashin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
The Response Of The Current Account To Terms Of Trade Shocks
DOWNLOAD
Author : Christopher J. Kent
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-07-01
The Response Of The Current Account To Terms Of Trade Shocks written by Christopher J. Kent and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock.
Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike
DOWNLOAD
Author : Federico Di Pace
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-12-11
Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike written by Federico Di Pace and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-11 with Business & Economics categories.
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles.
Macroeconomic Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks
DOWNLOAD
Author : Nicola Spatafora
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Macroeconomic Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks written by Nicola Spatafora and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
The authors investigate the impact on economic growth and development of long-run movements in the external terms of trade, with special reference to the experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and 1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled experiment for examining the impact of unanticipated -- but permanent -- shocks to the terms of trade. They analyze the sample econometrically using panel data techniques. They find that permanent terms-of-trade shocks have a strongly significant positive effect on investment, which they justify theoretically on the grounds that countries in the sample import much of their capital equipment. The shocks also have a significant positive effect on consumption. Government consumption responds almost twice as strongly as private consumption. The shocks have no effect on savings and adversely affect the trade and current account balances. There is a significant positive effect on the output of all main categories of nontradables. But Dutch disease effects are strikingly absent. Agriculture and manufacturing do not contract in reaction to an oil price increase. Dutch disease effects may be absent in part because of policy-induced output restraints in the oil sector, or because of the quot;enclavequot; nature of the oil sector, which does not participate in domestic factor markets.
On The Distributive Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks
DOWNLOAD
Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-10-01
On The Distributive Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. We show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and factor demand and prices, which is absent in the usual HOS framework. Specifically, in a two-sector economy (producing only exportable and non-tradable goods) there are no redistributive effects of external terms of trade shifts-i.e. no Stolper-Samuelson-type of effect. By extending the model to the domestic production of a third, importable good, we show that distributional tensions arise. Distributional conflicts occur within urban labor groups (skilled vs. unskilled) and not only between the "traditional" rural vs. urban factors. Finally, export taxes are imposed to re-distribute the effects of external shocks. We show that the ability of the government to cushion the impact of the terms of trade shift on the economy’s income distribution depends crucially on the use of the tax revenues.
Trade Shocks
DOWNLOAD
Author : Paul Collier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Trade Shocks written by Paul Collier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodity Shocks And Exchange Rate Regimes Implications For The Caribbean Commodity Exporters
DOWNLOAD
Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-23
Commodity Shocks And Exchange Rate Regimes Implications For The Caribbean Commodity Exporters written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.
Economic Shocks And The Global Environment
DOWNLOAD
Author : F. Desmond McCarthy
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date :
Economic Shocks And The Global Environment written by F. Desmond McCarthy and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Breaking Into New Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Richard Newfarmer
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2009-03-12
Breaking Into New Markets written by Richard Newfarmer and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-12 with Political Science categories.
International trade in 2009 is projected to contract for the first time since 1982. As a result, export diversifi cation has gained new urgency as one way of using exports to recover lost growth momentum. Moreover, diversifi cation is central to reducing income volatility and sustaining high growth rates, which are especially important for countries with large populations living in poverty. In the 1950s, countries became concerned that their dependence on primary products would lead to steady falls in the purchasing power of primary exports and thus slow growth. A major policy objective of developing countries since that time has been to diversify out of primary products into manufactures. Although some nations have been at least partially successful, many low-income countries remain dependent on a narrow range of primary products. 'Breaking Into New Markets' argues for a comprehensive view of diversifi cation. It explores new thinking and evidence about export diversifi cation and elaborates on policies for its promotion. These policies span tariffs and taxes, services, and government activities to help fi rms take advantage of global opportunities. The book is a compilation of chapters written as short, policy-focused pieces. Many digest longer, more academic papers in an effort to make the information accessible to a larger policy and nontechnical audience. In that sense, the book is a policy primer on what export diversifi cation can and cannot do for growth and how to make diversifi cation happen. Intelligently designed policies that effi ciently address the obstacles to export growth are critical for overall economic growth and poverty reduction. This book offers insights useful to policy makers and practitioners as they embark on efforts to design new programs of competitiveness in their trade strategies.