Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike
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Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike
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Author : Federico Di Pace
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-12-11
Terms Of Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike written by Federico Di Pace and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-11 with Business & Economics categories.
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles.
Terms Of Trade Shocks And The Current Account
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Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-12-01
Terms Of Trade Shocks And The Current Account written by Mr.Paul Cashin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
On The Distributive Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-10-01
On The Distributive Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. We show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and factor demand and prices, which is absent in the usual HOS framework. Specifically, in a two-sector economy (producing only exportable and non-tradable goods) there are no redistributive effects of external terms of trade shifts-i.e. no Stolper-Samuelson-type of effect. By extending the model to the domestic production of a third, importable good, we show that distributional tensions arise. Distributional conflicts occur within urban labor groups (skilled vs. unskilled) and not only between the "traditional" rural vs. urban factors. Finally, export taxes are imposed to re-distribute the effects of external shocks. We show that the ability of the government to cushion the impact of the terms of trade shift on the economy’s income distribution depends crucially on the use of the tax revenues.
The Response Of The Current Account To Terms Of Trade Shocks
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Author : Christopher J. Kent
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-07-01
The Response Of The Current Account To Terms Of Trade Shocks written by Christopher J. Kent and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock.
Commodity Terms Of Trade
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Author : Bertrand Gruss
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-24
Commodity Terms Of Trade written by Bertrand Gruss and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery
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Author : Norbert Funke
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008
Terms Of Trade Shocks And Economic Recovery written by Norbert Funke and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.
Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Author : Martín Uribe
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-04-04
Open Economy Macroeconomics written by Martín Uribe and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes
International Macroeconomics
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Author : Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2022-09-06
International Macroeconomics written by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-06 with Business & Economics categories.
An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomicsBrings undergraduate and master’s instruction in line with modern economic researchFollows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approachAddresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crisesUses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical modelsFeatures a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of modelsAccompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
Changing Patterns Of Global Trade
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Author : Nagwa Riad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-01-15
Changing Patterns Of Global Trade written by Nagwa Riad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Commodity Shocks And Exchange Rate Regimes Implications For The Caribbean Commodity Exporters
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-23
Commodity Shocks And Exchange Rate Regimes Implications For The Caribbean Commodity Exporters written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.