Testing For Bubbles In Real Estate Price Cycles
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Testing For Bubbles In Real Estate Price Cycles
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Author : Chris Brooks
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Testing For Bubbles In Real Estate Price Cycles written by Chris Brooks and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Real property categories.
Testing For Bubbles In Real Estate Price Cycles
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Author : Chris Brooks
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Testing For Bubbles In Real Estate Price Cycles written by Chris Brooks and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with categories.
This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past fifteen years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. The present analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found but these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s. Investors in property stocks should be aware that in periods when bubbles are present the market does not move on the basis of the fundamentals and abrupt price corrections can occur.
Bubble Detective City Level Analysis Of House Price Cycles
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Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-02-17
Bubble Detective City Level Analysis Of House Price Cycles written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates house price dynamics at high frequency using city-level observations during the period 1994-2022 in Lithuania. We employ multiple time series-based econometric procedures to examine whether real house prices and house price-to-rent ratios exhibit explosive behavior. According to these recursive right-tailed test results, we reject the null hypothesis of no-bubble and find evidence for long and multiple periods of explosive behavior in the real estate market in all major cities during the sample period. While the size of bubbles varies across cities, especially when we use the house price-to-rent ratio, there is clearly a similar boom-bust pattern. Large house price corrections can in turn have adverse effects on economic performance and financial stability, as experienced during the global financial crisis and other episodes in history.
Housing Bubbles
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Author : Edward Ludwig Glaeser
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Housing Bubbles written by Edward Ludwig Glaeser and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with Economics categories.
Housing markets experience substantial price volatility, short term price change momentum and mean reversion of prices over the long run. Together these features, particularly at their most extreme, produce the classic shape of an asset bubble. In this paper, we review the stylized facts of housing bubbles and discuss theories that can potentially explain events like the boom-bust cycles of the 2000s. One set of theories assumes rationality and uses idiosyncratic features of the housing market, such as intensive search and short selling constraints, to explain the stylized facts. Cheap credit provides a particularly common rationalization for price booms, but temporary periods of low interest rates will not explain massive price swings in simple rational models. An incorrectly under-priced default option is needed to explain the formation of rational bubbles. Many non-rational explanations for real estate bubbles exist, but the most promising theories emphasize some form of trend-chasing, which in turn reflects boundedly rational learning.
Real Estate Bubble In Germany The German Residential Real Estate Market For The Presence Of A Bubble
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Author : Kilian Köberlein
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2022-09-01
Real Estate Bubble In Germany The German Residential Real Estate Market For The Presence Of A Bubble written by Kilian Köberlein and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, , language: English, abstract: The starting point for this thesis and the associated question were price developments observable on the residential property market as well as increased media reporting. Against this background, the following question was examined with scientific methods within the framework of this thesis: Is a bubble formation recognisable in the German residential real estate market and what regional differences can be identified in answering this question? As a first step, price-influencing factors were examined in more detail and the price development relative to annual rent ratio, income and construction costs was examined. In addition, the effect of the ECB's interest rate policy and the interplay between property prices, monetary policy and asset price inflation were analysed. Hereby it became apparent that the significant price increase for residential property since 2010, and especially accelerated since 2016, can be explained against the backdrop of the extremely low interest rate level and the considerable expansion of money supply. In order to be able to identify price bubbles on the residential property market in a measurable and comprehensible way, the price development was analysed in a second step with the mathematical procedure according to Diba and Grossmann, which uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The procedure is based on the premise that the price of a good is related to its fundamental value. To examine the price development in the residential property market, the fundamental value used for comparison purposes is derived from the development of the rent price index, the index of average gross monthly earnings and the construction cost index. The house price index was used as a price indicator for residential property. With the help of the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Test, the development of the various indices was examined and compared with regard to their degree of stationarity. This investigation was carried out for the overall German residential real estate market in the observation period 2010-2021 in order to obtain an up-to-date picture. For the period under consideration from 01.01.2010 to 31.12.2021, a price bubble was not confirmed on the overall German residential property market.
Private Real Estate Markets And Investments
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Author : H. Kent Baker
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2014-08-07
Private Real Estate Markets And Investments written by H. Kent Baker and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides an overview of private real estate markets and investments. The 14 chapters are divided into three sections for conventional and alternative real estate investments and regulatory issues. Conventional investable real assets examined are retail spaces, apartments, offices, and industrial facilities owned by corporate entities. Alternative real estate assets are uniquely and extensively addressed. These include healthcare, both for facilities and the pricing to make it an investable asset; infrastructure contains roads, bridges, and public utilities; and resources are in land, agriculture, oil, and gas. The regulatory section includes appraisal and valuation, brokerage and transaction costs, sustainability, and green buildings. Readers should gain a greater appreciation of what is needed to be successful when investing in private real estate markets. The share of real estate in institutional portfolios has risen above a previous 5% target, as investors avoid the risks of low interest rates. The world's wealth is shifting to emerging markets where real estate is already a dominant asset class and public securities markets are limited. Institutions with long horizons avoid publicly traded markets because they want to capture any premium from illiquidity. Real estate involves local and cultural restrictions on land usage, sustainability and on the regulation of the illiquidity. For information about public real estate, read Public Real Estate Markets and Investments.
Real Estate Finance In The New Economy
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Author : Piyush Tiwari
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2014-01-29
Real Estate Finance In The New Economy written by Piyush Tiwari and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-29 with Business & Economics categories.
The financial deregulation of the last quarter century has meantlarge flows of funds around the world seeking the highestrisk-adjusted return for investors. Real estate is now establishedas an important asset class and advances in information technologyprovide the necessary tools to complement global developments inreal estate finance and investment. A variety of investment vehicles have emerged, andReal EstateFinance in the New Economy examines these along withfinancing and risk in the context of globalization, deregulationand an increasingly integrated international world economy byexploring questions like: How have real estate financial structures evolved as economiesgrow and become internationalised? What role do economic change and financial systems play in thedevelopment of real estate investment? Are the risks associated with the ‘new economy’really new? What is the future direction for real estate financing? The authors develop an economic framework for discussions onindividual financial products to examine how real estate financialstructures change with economic growth and internationalisation andalso to show how developments in real estate finance impacteconomic growth.
Famous First Bubbles
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Author : Peter M. Garber
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2001-08-24
Famous First Bubbles written by Peter M. Garber and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-08-24 with Business & Economics categories.
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Econometric Analysis Of The Real Estate Market And Investment
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Author : Peijie Wang
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2003-09-02
Econometric Analysis Of The Real Estate Market And Investment written by Peijie Wang and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-09-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides an economic and econometric analysis of real estate investment and real estate market behaviour. Peijie Wang examines fluctuations in the real estate business to reveal the mechanisms governing the interactions between the industry and other sectors of the economy.
Bubbles In Real Estate
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Author : Daniel Gros
language : en
Publisher: CEPS
Release Date : 2006
Bubbles In Real Estate written by Daniel Gros and has been published by CEPS this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Housing categories.