The Art Of Uncertainty How To Navigate Chance Ignorance Risk And Luck
DOWNLOAD
Download The Art Of Uncertainty How To Navigate Chance Ignorance Risk And Luck PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get The Art Of Uncertainty How To Navigate Chance Ignorance Risk And Luck book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
The Art Of Uncertainty How To Navigate Chance Ignorance Risk And Luck
DOWNLOAD
Author : David Spiegelhalter
language : en
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Release Date : 2025-03-04
The Art Of Uncertainty How To Navigate Chance Ignorance Risk And Luck written by David Spiegelhalter and has been published by W. W. Norton & Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-04 with Mathematics categories.
Named a Best Book of the Year by Forbes and The Economist From our "greatest living statistical communicator" (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding—and learning to embrace—risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”—how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. Luckily for us, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to resolve the apparently random and decode the many decisions we face with imperfect information. In The Art of Uncertainty, he shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don’t know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what’s likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order. Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don’t, or simply cannot, know.
Teaching Probability
DOWNLOAD
Author : Jenny Gage
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2016-08-04
Teaching Probability written by Jenny Gage and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-04 with Education categories.
These titles focus on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of specific mathematical concepts.
The Art Of Statistics
DOWNLOAD
Author : David Spiegelhalter
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2019-09-03
The Art Of Statistics written by David Spiegelhalter and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-03 with Mathematics categories.
In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.
The Norm Chronicles
DOWNLOAD
Author : David Spiegelhalter
language : en
Publisher: Profile Books
Release Date : 2013-05-30
The Norm Chronicles written by David Spiegelhalter and has been published by Profile Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-30 with Science categories.
Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike? Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.
The Art Of Uncertainty
DOWNLOAD
Author : Dennis Merritt Jones
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2011-06-09
The Art Of Uncertainty written by Dennis Merritt Jones and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-09 with Body, Mind & Spirit categories.
What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the reader to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment. If the difficulties of recent years have taught us anything-particularly those who "did everything right" and still saw it all fall apart-it's that none of us has as much control over our lives as we believe. The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? What if we discovered that a new paradigm can be more fulfilling, more rewarding, and more peaceful than what we have known? Living in the I don't know and loving it is an art form we can all master, and The Art of Uncertainty is the perfect guidebook.
The Bugs Book
DOWNLOAD
Author : David Lunn
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2012-10-02
The Bugs Book written by David Lunn and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-02 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents
Buddha Socrates And Us
DOWNLOAD
Author : Stephen Batchelor
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2025-08-26
Buddha Socrates And Us written by Stephen Batchelor and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-08-26 with Philosophy categories.
A renowned Buddhist teacher turns to two of the most influential figures in history for guidance on how to face the ethical challenges of our time The Buddha’s revolutionary teachings transformed Asia, and his contemporary Socrates laid the foundations of Western philosophy. Although they never met, Socrates and the Buddha each addressed in a radically new and surprisingly similar way the core questions of how to lead a good, just, and dignified life amid turbulence and violence. Common to their teachings was an ethics of uncertainty: both refused to make truth claims about the ultimate nature of reality, insisting on the primacy of critical self‑evaluation as the basis of an ethical life. In this illuminating book, best-selling author Stephen Batchelor explores the philosophical, social, and political worlds of the Buddha and Socrates, showing how their teachings continue to provide lessons in how to lead a flourishing and engaged life. Keenly aware of the fickle and conflicted nature of the human mind, Gotama and Socrates inspired their followers to act with humility and courage, risk and resolve, doubt and confidence. Drawing on their insights, and those of their followers, Batchelor uncovers a middle way between Buddhist dharma and Greek philosophy that can serve as a starting point for a “secular faith” that addresses the most pressing spiritual and planetary issues of our age.
The Upside Of Uncertainty
DOWNLOAD
Author : Nathan Furr
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022-07-19
The Upside Of Uncertainty written by Nathan Furr and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-19 with Business & Economics categories.
A science-backed guide for navigating and thriving through uncertainty—based on interviews and insights from world-renowned innovators, entrepreneurs, artists, and creatives. Whether you're starting or running a business, searching for new ideas, or trying to advance in your career, you're likely to grapple with the unknown and unpredictable—every day. Though these moments can be difficult and uncomfortable, they also offer opportunities for personal growth, innovation, and creativity. In The Upside of Uncertainty, INSEAD professor Nathan Furr and entrepreneur Susannah Harmon Furr provide a panoramic guide to transforming uncertainty into a force for good. Drawing from hundreds of interviews, along with pioneering research in psychology, innovation, and behavioral economics, Nathan and Susannah provide over thirty tools for adopting a more positive view of what's happening, developing a vision for what to do next, and opening ourselves up to more and more possibilities. Timely and tactical, The Upside of Uncertainty provides the tools and strategies you need to thrive through life's never-ending plot twists.
Think Stats
DOWNLOAD
Author : Allen B. Downey
language : en
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Release Date : 2014-10-16
Think Stats written by Allen B. Downey and has been published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc." this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-16 with Computers categories.
If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge, using tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. By working with a single case study throughout this thoroughly revised book, you’ll learn the entire process of exploratory data analysis—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. You’ll explore distributions, rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. New chapters on regression, time series analysis, survival analysis, and analytic methods will enrich your discoveries. Develop an understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Import data from most sources with Python, rather than rely on data that’s cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data
The Cunning Of Uncertainty
DOWNLOAD
Author : Helga Nowotny
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-01-19
The Cunning Of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-19 with Education categories.
Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.