The Business Cycle Associated With Exchange Rate Based Stabilization
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The Business Cycle Associated With Exchange Rate Based Stabilization
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Author : Miguel Alberto Kiguel
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1990
The Business Cycle Associated With Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Miguel Alberto Kiguel and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business cycles categories.
Disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve tradeoff in the medium run. Instead of having a sharp recession in the early stage of stabilization, there often is an initial expansion of output followed by a recession and balance of payments difficulties. This pattern is related to programs that use the exchange rate as an instrument of disinflation.
Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Under Imperfect Credibility
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Author : Mr.Guillermo Calvo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1991-08-01
Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Under Imperfect Credibility written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes stabilization policy under predetermined exchange rates in a cash-in-advance, staggered-prices model. Under full credibility, a reduction in the rate of devaluation results in an immediate and permanent reduction in the inflation rate, with no effect on output or consumption. In contrast, a non-credible stabilization results in an initial expansion of output, followed by a later recession. The inflation rate of home goods remains above the rate of devaluation throughout the program, thus resulting in a sustained real exchange rate appreciation.
Sticky Inflation And The Real Effects Of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization
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Author : Oya Celasun
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-07-01
Sticky Inflation And The Real Effects Of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Oya Celasun and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the literature has explained these empirical regularities with the lack of credibility of the stabilization plans. The lack-of-credibility models typically assume perfectly forward-looking pricing behavior without inflation stickiness and attribute the slow decline in inflation to the consumption boom that occurs due to the perceived temporariness of the ERBS policy. This paper tests the empirical validity of forward-looking pricing behavior in Mexico and Turkey, two countries which have experienced ERBS. It finds that the forward- and backward-looking components of inflation weigh approximately equally in pricing behavior, and therefore, that inflation is partially sticky. The paper then develops the theoretical implications of partial inflation stickiness in a lack of credibility model of ERBS and concludes that the presence of stickiness significantly reduces the persistence of the consumption boom predicted by the model, but helps to explain the recession in the late phase of the stabilization.
Fiscal Policy And The Business Cycle Associated With Exchange Rate Based Stabilizations
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Author : Ernesto Talvi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Fiscal Policy And The Business Cycle Associated With Exchange Rate Based Stabilizations written by Ernesto Talvi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Business cycles categories.
Exchange Rate Based Stabilization
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Author : Mr.A. Javier Hamann
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-10-01
Exchange Rate Based Stabilization written by Mr.A. Javier Hamann and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Do exchange-rate-based stabilizations generate distinctive economic dynamics? To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ—especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange-rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not.
The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program
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Author : Julio A. Santaella
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1996-03
The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program written by Julio A. Santaella and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-03 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine whether Mexico’s disinflation experience during 1987-94 fits a widely accepted set of stylized facts of exchange rate-based stabilization (ERBS), and relate it to theories put forward to account for the boom-recession business cycle associated with ERBS. A cursory look at Mexican data shows that the experience fits quite closely the theoretical predictions and the stylized facts of ERBS. However, the paper shows that there were some important differences and peculiarities of the Mexican case that deserve further study, especially regarding the role of the nominal anchor and the nature of the business cycle.
Disinflation And The Recession Now Versus Recession Later Hypothesis
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Author : Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1995-10-01
Disinflation And The Recession Now Versus Recession Later Hypothesis written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Both analytical models and casual empiricism suggest that the timing of the recessionary costs associated with inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries may depend on the nominal anchor which is used. Under money-based stabilization, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program, while under exchange rate-based stabilization the recession occurs later in the program. This paper provides a first attempt to formally test this hypothesis using a vector-autoregression model for Uruguay. The impulse response of output to different stabilization policies is broadly consistent with the “recession-now-versus-recession-later” hypothesis. The evidence also suggests, however, that the effectiveness of a monetary anchor in reducing inflation is hindered by the high degree of dollarization of the Uruguayan economy.
The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program
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Author : Julio A. Santaella
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program written by Julio A. Santaella and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
We examine whether Mexico`s disinflation experience during 1987-94 fits a widely accepted set of stylized facts of exchange rate-based stabilization (ERBS), and relate it to theories put forward to account for the boom-recession business cycle associated with ERBS. A cursory look at Mexican data shows that the experience fits quite closely the theoretical predictions and the stylized facts of ERBS. However, the paper shows that there were some important differences and peculiarities of the Mexican case that deserve further study, especially regarding the role of the nominal anchor and the nature of the business cycle.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 1995
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Author : Ben S. Bernanke
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1996
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 1995 written by Ben S. Bernanke and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Business & Economics categories.
Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.