The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations
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The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations
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Author : Mr.Benedict J. Clements
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-26
The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations written by Mr.Benedict J. Clements and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with DemoGraphics categories.
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform---starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Demographic Change And Economic Well Being
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-15
Demographic Change And Economic Well Being written by International Monetary Fund. Communications Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-15 with Social Science categories.
This paper discusses the role of fiscal policy and demographics. By the end of this century, about two-thirds of all countries are expected to have declining populations. This will have profound implications for economics, financial markets, social stability, and geopolitics. Fiscal policy responses and technological innovation are especially important parts of the solution. Without action, public pension and health systems will not be sustainable over the long term. The increase in life expectancy and economic welfare that came with the industrial revolution brought with it the seeds of demographic change. This is a demographic double whammy that will have major implications for economic growth, financial stability, and the public purse. With declining fertility rates, populations in some advanced economies did not just grow more slowly; they stagnated or began to shrink. IMF analysis suggests that, if everyone lived three years longer than expected, pension related costs could increase by 50 percent in both advanced and emerging economies. This would heavily affect private and public sector balance sheets and could also undermine financial stability.
The Economic Consequences Of Slowing Population Growth
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Author : Thomas J. Espenshade
language : en
Publisher: New York : Academic Press
Release Date : 1978
The Economic Consequences Of Slowing Population Growth written by Thomas J. Espenshade and has been published by New York : Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Business & Economics categories.
The Demographic Dividend
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Author : David Bloom
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2003-02-13
The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-02-13 with Social Science categories.
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
The Great Demographic Reversal
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Author : Charles Goodhart
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-08-08
The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
The Economic And Fiscal Consequences Of Immigration
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Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2017-07-13
The Economic And Fiscal Consequences Of Immigration written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-13 with Social Science categories.
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.
The Political Economy Of Japan S Low Fertility
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Author : Frances McCall Rosenbluth
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2006-12-08
The Political Economy Of Japan S Low Fertility written by Frances McCall Rosenbluth and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-12-08 with Social Science categories.
This book takes an interdisciplinary approach to one of Japan's thorniest public policy issues: why are women increasingly forgoing motherhood? At the heart of the matter lies a paradox: although the overall trend among rich countries is for fertility to decrease as female labor participation increases, gender-friendly countries resist the trend. Conversely, gender-unfriendly countries have lower fertility rates than they would have if they changed their labor markets to encourage the hiring of women—and therein lies Japan's problem. The authors argue that the combination of an inhospitable labor market for women and insufficient support for childcare pushes women toward working harder to promote their careers, to the detriment of childbearing. Controversial and enlightening, this book provides policy recommendations for solving not just Japan's fertility issue but those of other modern democracies facing a similar crisis.
Emigration And Its Economic Impact On Eastern Europe
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Author : Mr.Ruben V Atoyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-07-20
Emigration And Its Economic Impact On Eastern Europe written by Mr.Ruben V Atoyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-20 with Social Science categories.
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
The Impact Of Demographics On Productivity And Inflation In Japan
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Author : Mr.Niklas J Westelius
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-18
The Impact Of Demographics On Productivity And Inflation In Japan written by Mr.Niklas J Westelius and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.