The Improbability Principle
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The Improbability Principle
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Author : David Hand
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2014-02-27
The Improbability Principle written by David Hand and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-27 with Mathematics categories.
Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? Here, in this highly original book - aimed squarely at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling - eminent statistician David Hand answers this question by weaving together various strands of probability into a unified explanation, which he calls the improbability principle. This is a book that will appeal not only to those who love stories about startling coincidences and extraordinarily rare events, but also to those who are interested in how a single bold idea links areas as diverse as gambling, the weather, airline disasters and creative writing as well as the origin of life and even the universe. The Improbability Principle will change your perspective on how the world works – and tell you what the Bible code and Shakespeare have in common, how to win the lottery, why Apple's song shuffling was made less random to seem more random. Oh and why lightning does in fact strike twice...
The Improbability Principle
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Author : David J. Hand
language : en
Publisher: Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Release Date : 2014-02-11
The Improbability Principle written by David J. Hand and has been published by Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-11 with Mathematics categories.
In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough. Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
Dark Data
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Author : David J. Hand
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2022-02-15
Dark Data written by David J. Hand and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-15 with Computers categories.
"Data describe and represent the world. However, no matter how big they may be, data sets don't - indeed cannot - capture everything. Data are measurements - and, as such, they represent only what has been measured. They don't necessarily capture all the information that is relevant to the questions we may want to ask. If we do not take into account what may be missing/unknown in the data we have, we may find ourselves unwittingly asking questions that our data cannot actually address, come to mistaken conclusions, and make disastrous decisions. In this book, David Hand looks at the ubiquitous phenomenon of "missing data." He calls this "dark data" (making a comparison to "dark matter" - i.e., matter in the universe that we know is there, but which is invisible to direct measurement). He reveals how we can detect when data is missing, the types of settings in which missing data are likely to be found, and what to do about it. It can arise for many reasons, which themselves may not be obvious - for example, asymmetric information in wars; time delays in financial trading; dropouts in clinical trials; deliberate selection to enhance apparent performance in hospitals, policing, and schools; etc. What becomes clear is that measuring and collecting more and more data (big data) will not necessarily lead us to better understanding or to better decisions. We need to be vigilant to what is missing or unknown in our data, so that we can try to control for it. How do we do that? We can be alert to the causes of dark data, design better data-collection strategies that sidestep some of these causes - and, we can ask better questions of our data, which will lead us to deeper insights and better decisions"--
Statistics A Very Short Introduction
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Author : David J. Hand
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2008-10-23
Statistics A Very Short Introduction written by David J. Hand and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-23 with Mathematics categories.
Statistics has evolved into an exciting discipline which uses deep theory and powerful software to shed light on the world around us: from clinical trials in medicine, to economics, sociology, and countless other subjects vital to understanding modern life. This Very Short Introduction explores and explains how statistics works today.
That S Maths
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Author : Peter Lynch
language : en
Publisher: Gill & Macmillan Ltd
Release Date : 2016-10-14
That S Maths written by Peter Lynch and has been published by Gill & Macmillan Ltd this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-14 with Mathematics categories.
From atom bombs to rebounding slinkies, open your eyes to the mathematical magic in the everyday. Mathematics isn't just for academics and scientists, a fact meteorologist and blogger Peter Lynch has spent the past several years proving through his Irish Times newspaper column and blog, That's Maths.Here, he shows how maths is all around us, with chapters on the beautiful equations behind designing a good concert venue, predicting the stock market and modelling the atom bomb, as well as playful meditations on everything from coin-stacking to cartography. If you left school thinking maths was boring, think again!
Anthropic Bias
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Author : Nick Bostrom
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-10-11
Anthropic Bias written by Nick Bostrom and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-11 with Philosophy categories.
Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.
Chancing It
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Author : Robert Matthews
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2017-09-19
Chancing It written by Robert Matthews and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-19 with Mathematics categories.
Make your own luck by understanding probability Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance?only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life. In Chancing It, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how to understand the laws of probability and use them to your advantage. He gives you access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed and explains how to use them to guide your judgments and decisions. By the end of the book, you will know: How to understand and even predict coincidences When an insurance policy is worth having Why “expert” predictions are often misleading How to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney When it makes sense to place a bet on anything from sports to stock markets A groundbreaking introduction to the power of probability, Chancing It will sharpen your decision-making and maximize your luck.
Probability Theory
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Allied Publishers
Release Date : 2013
Probability Theory written by and has been published by Allied Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Probability theory
Measurement A Very Short Introduction
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Author : David J. Hand
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2016-09-29
Measurement A Very Short Introduction written by David J. Hand and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-29 with Mathematics categories.
Measurement is a fundamental concept that underpins almost every aspect of the modern world. It is central to the sciences, social sciences, medicine, and economics, but it affects everyday life. We measure everything - from the distance of far-off galaxies to the temperature of the air, levels of risk, political majorities, taxes, blood pressure, IQ, and weight. The history of measurement goes back to the ancient world, and its story has been one of gradual standardization. Today there are different types of measurement, levels of accuracy, and systems of units, applied in different contexts. Measurement involves notions of variability, accuracy, reliability, and error, and challenges such as the measurement of extreme values. In this Very Short Introduction, David Hand explains the common mathematical framework underlying all measurement, the main approaches to measurement, and the challenges involved. Following a brief historical account of measurement, he discusses measurement as used in the physical sciences and engineering, the life sciences and medicine, the social and behavioural sciences, economics, business, and public policy. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
The 9 Pitfalls Of Data Science
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Author : Gary Smith
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The 9 Pitfalls Of Data Science written by Gary Smith and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Computers categories.
The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science is loaded with entertaining tales of both successful and misguided approaches to interpreting data, both grand successes and epic failures.