The Yield Curve And Financial Risk Premia
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The Yield Curve And Financial Risk Premia
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Author : Felix Geiger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-08-17
The Yield Curve And Financial Risk Premia written by Felix Geiger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.
Specullation Risk Premia And Expectations In The Yield Curve
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Author : Francisco Barillas
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Specullation Risk Premia And Expectations In The Yield Curve written by Francisco Barillas and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Speculation Risk Premia And Expectations In The Yield Curve
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Author : Francisco Barillas
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Speculation Risk Premia And Expectations In The Yield Curve written by Francisco Barillas and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Bond market categories.
An affine asset pricing model in which agents have rational but heterogeneous expectations about future asset prices is developed. We estimate the model using data on bond yields and individual survey responses from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectations about short rates (ii) risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneous expectations about the resale value of a bond. We prove that the speculative term must be orthogonal to public information in real time and therefore statistically distinct from risk premia. Empirically, the speculative component is quantitatively important, accounting for up to one percentage point of US yields. Furthermore, estimates of historical risk premia from the heterogeneous information model are less volatile than, and negatively correlated with, risk premia estimated using a standard Affine Gaussian Term Structure model.
Estimating And Interpreting The Yield Curve
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Author : Nicola Anderson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996-06-04
Estimating And Interpreting The Yield Curve written by Nicola Anderson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-06-04 with Business & Economics categories.
A yield curve is a graph indicating the term structure of interest rates by plotting the yields of all bonds of the same quality. This book provides a thorough analysis of estimation techniques and a survey of yield curve interpretation. On the former it is the most advanced book in its field, on the latter it provides an introduction to more specialised texts. It also provides important insight into the latest thinking on these techniques at the Bank of England.
Bond Pricing And Yield Curve Modeling
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Author : Riccardo Rebonato
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-06-07
Bond Pricing And Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Rebonato provides an authoritative, clear, and up-to-date explanation of the cutting-edge innovations in affine modeling for government bonds, and provides readers with the precise tools to develop their own models. This book combines precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.
Yield Curve Modeling
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Author : Y. Stander
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2005-06-23
Yield Curve Modeling written by Y. Stander and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-06-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This book will give the reader insight into how to model yield curves in our incomplete and imperfect financial markets. An extensive list of yield curve models are shown and discussed. Using actual market instruments, these models are then applied and the different yield curves are compared. It is assumed that the reader has a basic understanding of the financial instruments available in the market. Various issues that have to be taken into account in practice are discussed, like daycount conventions, business-day rules, the credit quality of the instrument and liquidity to name but a few. It is also shown how yield curves can be used to estimate credit spreads and country risk premiums. Creating a yield curve model has some implications in risk management. Specifically - the model, operational, liquidity and basis risks are discussed.
Yield Curve Factors Term Structure Volatility And Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Nikolaus Hautsch
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Yield Curve Factors Term Structure Volatility And Bond Risk Premia written by Nikolaus Hautsch and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
Yield Curve Modeling And Forecasting
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-15
Yield Curve Modeling And Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium
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Author : Emanuel Kopp
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-15
A Macroeconomic Approach To The Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Lukas Wäger
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia written by Lukas Wäger and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
The focus of this thesis is on bond return predictability and providing an empirical and economic understanding of bond risk premia. The thesis consists of an empirical analysis of time-varying bond risk premia along three major branches of the current term structure literature, namely yields-only, macro-finance and multi-currency term structure models. All these models belong to the well-known class of affine models introduced by Ang and Piazzesi (2003), whereas the latter two embed unspanned factors. Unspanned factors are state variables that have an effect on bond risk premia but do not span the cross-section of yields, as recently introduced by Duffee (2011), Joslin, Priebsch and Singleton (2011) and Boos (2011). The section concerning yields-only models contributes by providing evidence of three priced risk premia of bonds in the US market, extending the analysis of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) and Boos (2011). The section concerning macrofinance models adds to the new branch of models with unspanned macro factors and extends existing research by analyzing the effects of unspanned macro factors on risk premia beyond the level risk premium and extending into a broader and longer data set of macroeconomic variables. The section concerning multi-currency models firstly introduces unspanned factors into international models by taking mutually unspanned latent yield curve factors of domestic and foreign countries as state variables. The information in foreign yield curves is found to be partly unspanned by the domestic yield curve and improves bond return predictability beyond local models.