Three Essays On Real Business Cycles

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Three Essays On Real Business Cycles

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Author : 陳冠任
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014

Three Essays On Real Business Cycles written by 陳冠任 and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.

Three Essays On Productivity Rle Business Cycles

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Author : Mark J. Lasky
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-03-27

Three Essays On Productivity Rle Business Cycles written by Mark J. Lasky and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.

The behaviour of US productivity since this book was originally publishedin 1994, has added new relevance to the relationship between profits and productivity. In the long run, productivity growth determines the economic standard of living. This book is divided into three parts: the basis of the first is the empirical finding that, controlling for normal business cycle effects, productivity grows faster when profits have been low than otherwise. The second part discusses how to measure marginal cost using time series data and the third tests a basic assumption that productivity growth is exogenous to labour and capital.

Three Essays On Business Cycles

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Author : John Bailey Jones
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998

Three Essays On Business Cycles written by John Bailey Jones and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with categories.

Productivity And The Business Cycle

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Author : Domenico Marchetti
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 1997

Productivity And The Business Cycle written by Domenico Marchetti and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.

Three essays on the ways in which business cycles affect productivity review and criticize previous research, propose an dynamic model using gross output data, and provide a decomposition of industrial productivity growth in Polish manufacturing 1992-93 indicating the importance of structural effects. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Three Essays On Monetary Business Cycle

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Author : Won-Kyu Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993

Three Essays On Monetary Business Cycle written by Won-Kyu Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with categories.

Essays On International Business Cycles

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Author : Keita Oikawa
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015

Essays On International Business Cycles written by Keita Oikawa and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.

In this dissertation, I present three essays on international business cycles. In the first essay, I document the empirical regularities of international business cycles using the OECD Quarterly Data, and review the existing literatures in this field. By checking the data, I point out 1) net exports-output ratios both in nominal and real terms are countercyclical before 1990 for most of the OECD countries, 2) but the ratios changes their signs from negative to positive after 1990 for some of the countries, and 3) the main reason for the sign changes is that there are changes in the relationship between exports and output: exports were weakly correlated with output or were lagged with output before 1990, but exports become strongly correlated with output and also coincident. In the literature review part, I suggest that many of the properties of international real business cycles can be accounted for by benchmark international real business cycle models, such as Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1992) and subsequent literatures, but those models cannot account for the coexistence of procyclical and countercyclical net exports. Further, incorporating Bansal and Yaron (2004)-style multi-factor productivity with short-run (trend-stationary transitory) shocks and long-run (difference-stationary growth) shocks are promising in order to account for the new observation about the trade variables. In the second essay, I document that the correlation between net exports and output has not always been negative after 1960. For the G6 countries, most of the countries experienced countercyclical net exports before 1990. However, some of these countries, including Germany and Japan, experienced procyclical net exports after 1990 even though they experienced countercyclical net exports before that. I also show that a simple one-good two-country business cycle model with a multi-factor productivity process can explain the phenomena. A positive transitory shocks to productivity leads to a positive response in net exports because its consumption risk-sharing effect, which causes a international resource flow from Home to Foreign country, is larger than its efficiency effect, which causes an increase in investments in Home country by importing goods form Foreign country. On the other hand, a positive growth shocks to productivity lead to a negative response in net exports because its consumption risk-sharing effect is smaller than its efficiency effect. I estimate the stochastic productivity processes for the G6 countries by using the simulated method of moments, and the simulation results of the model based on the estimated parameters are able to account for the changes in net export dynamics from pre-1990 to post-1990 for Germany and Japan. In the third essay, I document that there are changes in the correlations about trade variables and capital flows for the G7 countries: 1) the magnitude of the contemporaneous correlation of exports with output is a half of that of imports with output for pre-1990, but the former is almost the same value as the latter for post-1990, 2) the magnitude of the contemporaneous correlation of real net exports-output ratio with output is significantly negative for pre-1990, but it becomes almost zero or weakly positive for post-1990. I present two types of two-country two-good real business cycle models, one of which is with complete financial markets and the other one is with incomplete financial markets model in a sense that only risk-free one-period bonds are traded. I also add two types of shocks, transitory and growth shocks, to these two models in the spirit of Aguiar and Gopinath (2007). Firstly, the standard complete financial markets model has a strong correlation of exports with output and a weak correlation of imports with output. Secondly, the standard incomplete financial markets model has a weak correlation of exports with output and a strong correlation of imports with output. Finally, with reasonable changes in model parameter values, both the complete and incomplete market models can account for the two empirical regularities above, but only the incomplete market model can account for the empirical regularities for pre-1990. I evaluate these models in light of cross-country correlation properties based on actual data, especially the cross-country consumption correlation anomaly. I show that the incomplete financial markets model is still better than the complete market model because the cross-country consumption correlation in the incomplete financial markets model is still larger than but closer to the cross-country output correlation compared with the case of the complete financial markets model.

Three Essays On Expectation Driven Business Cycles

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Author : Shen Guo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009

Three Essays On Expectation Driven Business Cycles written by Shen Guo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.

This thesis studies business cycles driven by agents' expectation of future technology changes. The first chapter explores the effects which nominal rigidities and monetary policies have on the generation of Pigou cycles. The optimal response of the central bank is analyzed under circumstances when agents receive a signal indicating the technology change in the future. To achieve these objectives, I introduce nominal rigidities and monetary policy into a standard two-sector model with non-durable and durable goods. The optimal reaction of the central bank is found by solving the Ramsey optimization problem. I find that nominal rigidities tend to amplify the responses to the expectation and monetary policies affect the expectation driven business cycles by affecting the real interest rate and user cost of durable goods. Another interesting result is that a simple policy rule reacting to the inflation rates in both non-durable and durable sector with appropriate weights can closely mimic the performance of the Ramsey policy. The second chapter estimates a sticky price two-sector model with home production and capital adjustment costs to assess the significance of the news shocks in generating aggregate fluctuations. The analysis suggests that news shocks account for about 34% of the fluctuations in the aggregate output, 25% of the fluctuations in consumption-sector output and 38% of the fluctuations in investment-sector output. The third chapter explores the booms and busts induced by news shocks in a model economy with financial market frictions. With the presence of financial market frictions, firms have to pay an external finance premium which depends inversely on their net values. This provides firms with an incentive to build up capital stocks now to lower the external finance premium in the future. When firms receive news indicating a future technology improvement, they anticipate the need for more capital and so more external finance in the future; they could lower their future external finance costs by building up their capital and net values now. By adding financial market frictions into an otherwise standard RBC model, the model in chapter 3 succeeds in generating a boom when a news shock hits the economy.

Three Essays In Business Cycles And Finance

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Author : Gabriel Perez-Quiros
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996

Three Essays In Business Cycles And Finance written by Gabriel Perez-Quiros and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Capital movements categories.

Three Essays On The Role Of Expectations In Business Cycles

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Author : Rémi Vivès
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019

Three Essays On The Role Of Expectations In Business Cycles written by Rémi Vivès and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.

In this thesis, I investigate the role of expectations in business cycles by studying three different kinds of expectations. First, I focus on a theoretical explanation of business cycles generated by changes in expectations which turn out to be self-fulfilling. This chapter improves a puzzle from the sunspot literature, thereby giving more evidence towards an interpretation of business cycles based on self-fulfilling prophecies. Second, I empirically analyze the propagation mechanisms of central bank announcements through changes in market participants' beliefs. This chapter shows that credible announcements about future unconventional monetary policies can be used as a coordination device in a sovereign debt crisis framework. Third, I study a broader concept of expectations and investigate the predictive power of political climate on the pricing of sovereign risk. This chapter shows that political climate provides additional predictive power beyond the traditional determinants of sovereign bond spreads. In order to interrogate the role of expectations in business cycles from multiple angles, I use a variety of methodologies in this thesis, including theoretical and empirical analyses, web scraping, machine learning, and textual analysis. In addition, this thesis uses innovative data from the social media platform Twitter. Regardless of my methodology, all my results convey the same message: expectations matter, both for economic research and economically sound policy-making.

Understanding Business Cycles In Open Economies

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Author : Mustakiym Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997

Understanding Business Cycles In Open Economies written by Mustakiym Ayhan Kose and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business cycles categories.