Towards Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka

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Towards Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka

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Author : Rahul Anand
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01

Towards Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka written by Rahul Anand and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation targeting rule can reduce macroeconomic volatility and anchor inflationary expectations given the size and type of shocks faced by the economy. Sri Lanka could aim to target a broad inflation range initially due to its susceptibility supply-side shocks while enhancing exchange rate flexibility and strengthening the effectiveness of monetary policy in the transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime.

Sri Lanka

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-09-22

Sri Lanka written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-22 with Business & Economics categories.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sri Lanka’s 2009 Stand-By Arrangement was initiated at the onset of the global financial crisis. It also coincided with the ending of the country’s decades-old civil conflict. This unusual combination of circumstances made the program subject to very high economic uncertainty. The immediate imperative was to avert a balance of payments crisis— allowing for an orderly exchange rate adjustment and a rebuilding of external reserves— so as to forestall a shock with socially disruptive consequences. Recognizing the role of fiscal imbalances in the crisis, the program called for a fiscal consolidation that could restore debt sustainability. The program also aimed to put in place a framework to resolve problem banks and safeguard financial stability. Viewed through the immediacy of averting an acute external shock, Sri Lanka’s program was successful. On economic grounds, Sri Lanka’s need was evident. The program provided a catalytic effect to confidence at a crucial time. The balance of payments pressures not only ebbed, they reversed decisively within a few months of the program’s inception in recognition a potential “peace dividend” that the country might reap, as well as the Fund’s reassuring presence. In conjunction with these factors, the global environment also improved. As a result, the economy experienced strong growth and lower inflation relative to the preprogram years. Exceptional access, as approved at the program’s inception, was appropriate, as was the subsequent re-phasing of purchases to reflect improved conditions. The program concluded in 2012 (following two extensions), marking the completion of Sri Lanka’s longest engagement with the Fund. Viewed through the broader prism of achieving longer-term objectives, however, the program’s success was partial. Although international reserves were restored to a more comfortable level, exchange rate adjustment has not fully restored external competitiveness, and external vulnerabilities remain high. Thanks to a commendable level of expenditure control by the authorities through most of the program, headline and primary fiscal deficits declined after a large initial slippage. However, the fiscal adjustment was unbalanced—relying completely on expenditure cuts—while revenues continued their long-term decline, straining the future ability to sustain much-needed (and growth inducing) capital expenditure. Also, underlying fiscal and external debt-related vulnerabilities have not been significantly reduced despite improvement in headline numbers. Indeed, by some measures, they may have risen. The program had limited success in reining in the losses of state-owned enterprises. There have been improvements in the financial sector—notably in the area of risk-based supervision—but progress still needs to be made in other areas. To a certain extent, shortcomings with respect to longer-term objectives may reflect the fact that structural impediments were significant—in areas ranging from state owned enterprise reform to revenue administration, as well as the management of domestic liquidity conditions. This made some of the goals too ambitious for the time-frame of the program, despite two extensions. Difficulties encountered during previous attempts that were aimed at tackling these problems may have served to temper such optimism. Yet, in some areas—exchange rate flexibility, and revenue enhancements—policy choices also had a role to play in shaping weaker than envisaged program outcomes. By way of lessons, therefore, this report calls for more careful calibration of program goals. Targets need to be tethered by credible well specified bottom-up measures with attention to their sequencing, matching the degree of commitment. There may also be a case for keeping a sharper distinction between various kinds of Fund facilities for differing circumstances.

Beyond Macroeconomic Stability

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Author : Iyanatul Islam
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-02-25

Beyond Macroeconomic Stability written by Iyanatul Islam and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.

This volume goes beyond a narrow conceptualization of macroeconomic stability and explores the link between socio-economic policies, structural transformation and inclusive development. It rests on three thematic pillars: the limits of conventional macroeconomics; the long run agenda of structural transformation and the development of capabilities.

An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model For Sri Lanka

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Author : Chandranath Amarasekara
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-25

An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model For Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.

This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.

Sri Lanka

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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-04

Sri Lanka written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-04 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper discusses Sri Lanka’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criterion. The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering from the impact of the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. Growth is projected to strengthen to 3.5 percent in 2020, from 2.7 percent in 2019, as tourist arrivals and related activities gradually recover. Sustaining fiscal policy discipline remains critical to strengthen resilience and support growth, as important downside risks remain, amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty. The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering, supported by the authorities’ security and policy efforts to mitigate the impact of the attacks. Nevertheless, the economy remains vulnerable to shocks, given high public debt and low external buffers, with higher downside risks since the attacks, amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty. Sustained policy discipline and efforts to rebuild reserve buffers remain critical to address Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities and strengthen the economy’s resilience, while supporting investment and growth.

South Asia Economic Focus

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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-10-12

South Asia Economic Focus written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-12 with Business & Economics categories.

The South Asia Economic Focus is a biannual economic update presenting recent economic developments and a near term economic outlook for South Asia. It includes a Focus section presenting more in depth analysis of an economic topic of relevance for stability, growth and prosperity in the region as well as country briefs covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It concludes with a data section providing key economic indicators for South Asia "at a glance". Overall, it aims at providing important background information and timely analysis of key indicators and economic and financial developments of relevance to World Bank Group operations and interaction with counterparts in the region, particularly during annual and spring meeting.

Evolving Finance Trade And Investment In Asia

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Author : Tomoo Kikuchi
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-12-07

Evolving Finance Trade And Investment In Asia written by Tomoo Kikuchi and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.

The year 2015 witnessed significant events in the area of finance, trade and investment, which brought Asia to the centre of the world stage. The Trans-Pacific Partnership reached its basic agreement among the 12 member countries in October; the Chinese Yuan was included into the Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies at the International Monetary Fund in November; the ASEAN Economic Community came into force; and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was established with the 57 founding members in December. Within and outside the region, there is an urgent need to understand the underlying economic structures that brought about these events, which have global implications. The Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore launched a series of conferences on ‘Evolving Finance, Trade and Investment in Asia’ with the aim of strengthening research capacity in Asia to influence regional policymaking. Looking forward, the conference will provide an annual platform for scholars to discuss the latest findings and to disseminate them to business leaders and policymakers. This book contains scholarship presented at the inaugural international conference in September 2015, and was originally published as a special issue of the International Economic Journal.

Annual Report On Exchange Arrangements And Exchange Restrictions 2016

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-11

Annual Report On Exchange Arrangements And Exchange Restrictions 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.

The AREAER provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF Member countries.

South Asia S Path To Resilient Growth

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Author : Mr. Ranil M Salgado
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-12-23

South Asia S Path To Resilient Growth written by Mr. Ranil M Salgado and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.

South Asia’s Path to Sustainable and Inclusive Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.

Annual Report On Exchange Arrangements And Exchange Restrictions 2017

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Author : Linda Kean
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-07-25

Annual Report On Exchange Arrangements And Exchange Restrictions 2017 written by Linda Kean and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-25 with Business & Economics categories.

The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions has been published by the IMF since 1950. It draws on information available to the IMF from a number of sources, including that provided in the course of official staff visits to member countries, and has been prepared in close consultation with national authorities.