Uncertainty In Economic Theory
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Risk Choice And Uncertainty
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Author : George G. Szpiro
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2020-01-07
Risk Choice And Uncertainty written by George G. Szpiro and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-01-07 with Business & Economics categories.
At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
Uncertainty And Economics
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Author : Christian Müller-Kademann
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-01-08
Uncertainty And Economics written by Christian Müller-Kademann and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers.
Economics Of Pessimism And Optimism
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Author : Kiyohiko G. Nishimura
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-12-03
Economics Of Pessimism And Optimism written by Kiyohiko G. Nishimura and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first book to investigate individual’s pessimistic and optimistic prospects for the future and their economic consequences based on sound mathematical foundations. The book focuses on fundamental uncertainty called Knightian uncertainty, where the probability distribution governing uncertainty is unknown, and it provides the reader with methods to formulate how pessimism and optimism act in an economy in a strict and unified way. After presenting decision-theoretic foundations for prudent behaviors under Knightian uncertainty, the book applies these ideas to economic models that include portfolio inertia, indeterminacy of equilibria in the Arrow-Debreu economy and in a stochastic overlapping-generations economy, learning, dynamic asset-pricing models, search, real options, and liquidity preferences. The book then proceeds to characterizations of pessimistic (ε-fearful) and optimistic (ε-hopeful) behaviors under Knightian uncertainty and people’s inherent pessimism (surprise aversion) and optimism (surprise loving). Those characterizations are shown to be useful in understanding several observed behaviors in the global financial crisis and in its aftermath. The book is highly recommended not only to researchers who wish to understand the mechanism of how pessimism and optimism affect economic phenomena, but also to policy makers contemplating effective economic policies whose success delicately hinges upon people’s mindsets in the market. Kiyohiko Nishimura is Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Project Research Fellow of the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at The University of Tokyo. Hiroyuki Ozaki is Professor of Economics at Keio University.
Theory Of Decision Under Uncertainty
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Author : Itzhak Gilboa
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2009-03-16
Theory Of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Uncertainty In Economics
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Author : Peter Diamond
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-05-10
Uncertainty In Economics written by Peter Diamond and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty in Economics: Readings and Exercises provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of the economics of uncertainty. This book discusses ho uncertainty affects both individual behavior and standard equilibrium theory. Organized into three parts encompassing 30 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the relevance of expected utility maximization for positive and normative theories of individual choice. This text then examines the biases in judgments, which reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. Other chapters consider the effect of restricting trade in contingent commodities to those trades that can be affected through the stock and bond markets. This book discusses as well the individual problem of sequential choice and equilibria, which are built around the notion of sequential choice. The final chapter deals with an entirely different aspect of the economics of information and reverts to the assumption that markets are perfect and costless. This book is a valuable resource for economists and students.
Uncertainty Theory
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Author : Baoding Liu
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2004
Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Business & Economics categories.
"This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The main purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers and students in the field of applied mathematics, operations research, statistics, industrial engineering, information science and management science will find this work a useful reference."--BOOK JACKET. Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Uncertainty In Economics
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Author : Julia Köhn
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-07-04
Uncertainty In Economics written by Julia Köhn and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-04 with Business & Economics categories.
In this book the author develops a new approach to uncertainty in economics, which calls for a fundamental change in the methodology of economics. It provides a comprehensive overview and critical appraisal of the economic theory of uncertainty and shows that uncertainty was originally conceptualized both as an epistemic and an ontological problem. As a result of the economic professions’ attempt to become acknowledged as a science, the more problematic aspect of ontological uncertainty has been neglected and the subjective probability approach to uncertainty became dominant in economic theory. A careful analysis of ontological theories of uncertainty explains the blindness of modern economics to economic phenomena such as instability, slumps or excessive booms. Based on these findings the author develops a new approach that legitimizes a New Uncertainty Paradigm in economics.
Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Svetlana Boyarchenko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-08-26
Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Svetlana Boyarchenko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Here, two highly experienced authors present an alternative approach to optimal stopping problems. The basic ideas and techniques of the approach can be explained much simpler than the standard methods in the literature on optimal stopping problems. The monograph will teach the reader to apply the technique to many problems in economics and finance, including new ones. From the technical point of view, the method can be characterized as option pricing via the Wiener-Hopf factorization.
Uncertainty In Economic Theory
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Author : Itzhak Gilboa
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2004
Uncertainty In Economic Theory written by Itzhak Gilboa and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Business & Economics categories.
"This is the first collection to include chapters on this topic, and it can thus serve as an introduction to researchers who are new to the field as well as a graduate course textbook. With this goal in mind, the book contains survey introductions that are aimed at a graduate level student, and help explain the main ideas, and put them in perspective."--BOOK JACKET.
Uncertainty In Economic Theory
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Author : Itzhak Gilboa
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2004-08-02
Uncertainty In Economic Theory written by Itzhak Gilboa and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-08-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume brings together important papers, coupled with new introductions, in the massively influential area of uncertainty in economic theory. Seminal papers are available together for the first time in book format, with new introductions and under the steely editorship of Itzhak Gilboa - this book is a useful reference tool for economists all over the globe.