Understanding Deterrence
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Understanding Deterrence
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Author : Keith B. Payne
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-06-11
Understanding Deterrence written by Keith B. Payne and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-11 with History categories.
For decades, the rational actor model served as the preferred guide for U.S. deterrence policy. It has been a convenient and comforting guide because it requires little detailed knowledge of an opponent’s unique decision-making process and yet typically provides confident generalizations about how deterrence works. The model tends to postulate common decision-making parameters across the globe to reach generalizations about how deterrence will function and the types of forces that will be "stabilizing" or "destabilizing." Yet a broad spectrum of unique factors can influence an opponent’s perceptions and his calculations, and these are not easily captured by the rational actor model. The absence of uniformity means there can be very few deterrence generalizations generated by the use of the rational actor model that are applicable to the entire range of opponents. Understanding Deterrence considers how factors such as psychology, history, religion, ideology, geography, political structure, culture, proliferation and geopolitics can shape a leadership’s decision-making process, in ways that are specific and unique to each opponent. Understanding Deterrence demonstrates how using a multidisciplinary approach to deterrence analysis can better identify and assess factors that influence an opponent’s decision-making process. This identification and assessment process can facilitate the tailoring of deterrence strategies to specific purposes and result in a higher likelihood of success than strategies guided by the generalizations about opponent decision-making typically contained in the rational actor model. This book was published as a special issue of Comparative Strategy.
Nl Arms Netherlands Annual Review Of Military Studies 2020
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Author : Frans Osinga
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-12-03
Nl Arms Netherlands Annual Review Of Military Studies 2020 written by Frans Osinga and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-03 with Law categories.
This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
Understanding Deterrence
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Author : Keith B. Payne
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-06-11
Understanding Deterrence written by Keith B. Payne and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-11 with History categories.
For decades, the rational actor model served as the preferred guide for U.S. deterrence policy. It has been a convenient and comforting guide because it requires little detailed knowledge of an opponent’s unique decision-making process and yet typically provides confident generalizations about how deterrence works. The model tends to postulate common decision-making parameters across the globe to reach generalizations about how deterrence will function and the types of forces that will be "stabilizing" or "destabilizing." Yet a broad spectrum of unique factors can influence an opponent’s perceptions and his calculations, and these are not easily captured by the rational actor model. The absence of uniformity means there can be very few deterrence generalizations generated by the use of the rational actor model that are applicable to the entire range of opponents. Understanding Deterrence considers how factors such as psychology, history, religion, ideology, geography, political structure, culture, proliferation and geopolitics can shape a leadership’s decision-making process, in ways that are specific and unique to each opponent. Understanding Deterrence demonstrates how using a multidisciplinary approach to deterrence analysis can better identify and assess factors that influence an opponent’s decision-making process. This identification and assessment process can facilitate the tailoring of deterrence strategies to specific purposes and result in a higher likelihood of success than strategies guided by the generalizations about opponent decision-making typically contained in the rational actor model. This book was published as a special issue of Comparative Strategy.
Understanding General Deterrence
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Author : S. Quackenbush
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 2011-10-26
Understanding General Deterrence written by S. Quackenbush and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-26 with Political Science categories.
This book bridges the divide between formal and quantitative studies of deterrence by empirically testing and extending perfect deterrence theory. The author focuses on general deterrence, which relates to managing relations between states at all times, not only during crises.
Deterrence By Denial
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Author : Alex S. Wilner
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-11
Deterrence By Denial written by Alex S. Wilner and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11 with categories.
"Deterrence by Denial: Theory and Practice is the first study to focus exclusively on contemporary denial, bridging the theoretical gap that persists between classical deterrence theory and contemporary insecurity. The book significantly advances the scholarship on deterrence by denial with empirically driven and policy-relevant contributions written by leading international scholars of conventional military aggression, missile defense, terrorism and militancy, crime, and cybersecurity. Deterrence by Denial: Theory and Practice is an important and unique book, of interest to scholars of international relations, political science, terrorism and intelligence studies, and cybersecurity, as well as to policy analysts, practitioners, and members of the armed forces and intelligence community"--
Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Post Cold War Conflict Deterrence
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1997-05-02
Post Cold War Conflict Deterrence written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-05-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centersâ€"the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.
Deterrence By Diplomacy
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Author : Anne E. Sartori
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013-10-24
Deterrence By Diplomacy written by Anne E. Sartori and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-24 with Political Science categories.
Why are countries often able to communicate critical information using diplomacy? Why do countries typically use diplomacy honestly, despite incentives to bluff? Why are they often able to deter attacks using merely verbal threats? International relations theory is largely pessimistic about the prospects for effective diplomacy, yet leaders nevertheless expend much time and energy trying to resolve conflicts through verbal negotiations and public statements. Deterrence by Diplomacy challenges standard understandings of deterrence by analyzing it as a form of talk and reaches conclusions about the effectiveness of diplomacy that are much more optimistic. Anne Sartori argues that diplomacy works precisely because it is so valuable. States take pains to use diplomacy honestly most of the time because doing so allows them to maintain reputations for honesty, which in turn enhance their ability to resolve future disputes using diplomacy rather than force. So, to maintain the effectiveness of their diplomacy, states sometimes acquiesce to others' demands when they might have been able to attain their goals through bluffs. Sartori theorizes that countries obtain a "trade" of issues over time; they get their way more often when they deem the issues more important, and concede more often when they deem the issues less important. Departing from traditional theory, this book shows that rather than always fighting over small issues to show resolve, states can make their threats more credible by sometimes honestly acquiescing over lesser issues--by not crying "wolf."
Deterrence Choice And Crime Volume 23
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Author : Daniel S. Nagin
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-04-17
Deterrence Choice And Crime Volume 23 written by Daniel S. Nagin and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-17 with Social Science categories.
Deterrence, Choice, and Crime explores the various dimensions of modern deterrence theory, relevant research, and practical applications. Beginning with the classical roots of deterrence theory in Cesare Beccaria’s profoundly important contributions to modern criminological thought, the book draws out the many threads in contemporary criminology that are explicitly mentioned or at least hinted by Beccaria. These include sanction risk perceptions and their behavioral consequences, the deterrent efficacy of the certainty versus the severity of punishment, the role of celerity of punishment in the deterrence process, informal versus formal deterrence, and individual differences in deterrence. The richness of the volume is seen in the inclusion of chapters that focus on the theoretical development of deterrence across disciplines such as criminology and economics. In an innovative section, the role of agents of deterrence is considered. Lessons are learned from the practical applications of deterrence undertaken in the areas of policing, corrections, and the community. The closing section includes Michael Tonry’s "An Honest Politician’s Guide to Deterrence: Certainty, Severity, Celerity, and Parsimony," a reminder of Beccaria’s dictum that "it is better to prevent crimes than punish them." In the current environment, deterrence arguments are routinely used to justify policies that do just the opposite. Ray Paternoster, who contributed two chapters, passed away as this volume was being finalized. Fittingly, this book is dedicated to him and ends with Alex Piquero’s poignant remembrance of Ray, a path-breaking deterrence scholar, beloved mentor, and ardent supporter of social justice. Suitable for researchers and graduate students as well as for advanced courses in criminology, this book breaks new ground in theorizing the effects of punishment and other sanctions on crime control.