Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Intelligence And Surprise Attack
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Author : Erik J. Dahl
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Intelligence And Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure.
Constructing Cassandra
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Author : Milo Jones
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2013-08-21
Constructing Cassandra written by Milo Jones and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-21 with Political Science categories.
Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.
Breakdown
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Author : Bill Gertz
language : en
Publisher: Regnery Publishing
Release Date : 2002-08-01
Breakdown written by Bill Gertz and has been published by Regnery Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-08-01 with Political Science categories.
In a compelling new book, the Washington Times defense and national security reporter blows the lid off the U.S. Intelligence community's failure to prevent the September 11 attacks.
Intelligence In An Insecure World
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Author : Peter Gill
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-08-27
Intelligence In An Insecure World written by Peter Gill and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-27 with Political Science categories.
Over a decade on from the terrorist attacks of 9/11, intelligence continues to be of central importance to the contemporary world. Today there is a growing awareness of the importance of intelligence, and an increasing investment in it, as individuals, groups, organizations and states all seek timely and actionable information in order to increase their sense of security. But what exactly is intelligence? Who seeks to develop it and how? What happens to intelligence once it is produced, and what dilemmas does this generate? How can liberal democracies seek to mitigate problems of intelligence, and what do we mean by “intelligence failure?”’ In a fully revised and expanded new edition of their classic guide to the field, Peter Gill and Mark Phythian explore these and other questions. Together they set out a comprehensive framework for the study of intelligence, discussing how ‘intelligence’ can best be understood, how it is collected, analysed, disseminated and acted upon, how it raises ethical problems, and how and why it fails. Drawing on a range of contemporary examples, Intelligence in an Insecure World is an authoritative and accessible guide to a rapidly expanding area of enquiry - one which everyone has an interest in understanding.
The Tet Offensive
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Release Date : 1991
The Tet Offensive written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Cornell University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with History categories.
Wirtz explains why U.S. forces were surprised by the North Vietnamese Tet Offensive in 1968.
Understanding Intelligence In The Twenty First Century
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Author : Peter Jackson
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2004-07-01
Understanding Intelligence In The Twenty First Century written by Peter Jackson and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-07-01 with History categories.
Intelligence has never been more important in world politics than it is now at the opening of the twenty-first century. The terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, along with the politics and diplomacy of the Second Gulf War, have brought intelligence issues to the forefront of both official and popular discourse on security and international affairs. The need for better understanding of both the nature of the intelligence process and its importance to national and international security has never been more apparent. The aim of this collection is to enhance our understanding of the subject by drawing on a range of perspectives, from academic experts to journalists to former members of the British and American intelligence communities.
Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James Wirtz and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure And Mass Casualty Terrorism
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Author : Thomas Copeland
language : en
Publisher: BRILL
Release Date : 2007-07-30
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure And Mass Casualty Terrorism written by Thomas Copeland and has been published by BRILL this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-07-30 with Law categories.
This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.
Intelligence And U S Foreign Policy
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Author : Paul R. Pillar
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2011-09-06
Intelligence And U S Foreign Policy written by Paul R. Pillar and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-06 with Political Science categories.
A career of nearly three decades with the CIA and the National Intelligence Council showed Paul R. Pillar that intelligence reforms, especially measures enacted since 9/11, can be deeply misguided. They often miss the sources that underwrite failed policy and misperceive our ability to read outside influences. They also misconceive the intelligence-policy relationship and promote changes that weaken intelligence-gathering operations. In this book, Pillar confronts the intelligence myths Americans have come to rely on to explain national tragedies, including the belief that intelligence drives major national security decisions and can be fixed to avoid future failures. Pillar believes these assumptions waste critical resources and create harmful policies, diverting attention away from smarter reform, and they keep Americans from recognizing the limits of obtainable knowledge. Pillar revisits U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War and highlights the small role intelligence played in those decisions, and he demonstrates the negligible effect that America's most notorious intelligence failures had on U.S. policy and interests. He then reviews in detail the events of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, condemning the 9/11 commission and the George W. Bush administration for their portrayals of the role of intelligence. Pillar offers an original approach to better informing U.S. policy, which involves insulating intelligence management from politicization and reducing the politically appointed layer in the executive branch to combat slanted perceptions of foreign threats. Pillar concludes with principles for adapting foreign policy to inevitable uncertainties.