Intelligence And Surprise Attack
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Intelligence And Surprise Attack
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Author : Erik J. Dahl
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Intelligence And Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure.
Intelligence And Surprise Attack
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Author : Erik J. Dahl
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2013-07-19
Intelligence And Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-19 with Political Science categories.
How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.
Surprise Attack
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Author : Richard K. Betts
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982
Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Political Science categories.
Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders."Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
Preventing Surprise Attacks
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Author : Richard A. Posner
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2005
Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Political Science categories.
Posner discusses the utter futilty of this reform act in a searing critique of the 9/11 Commission, its recommendations, Congress's role in making law, and the law's inability to do what it is intended to do.
Surprise Attack
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Author : Ephraim Kam
language : en
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Release Date : 2004-05-15
Surprise Attack written by Ephraim Kam and has been published by Harvard University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-05-15 with History categories.
Emphasizing the psychological aspect of warfare, Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victims. He traces the behavior of the victim to examine the mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise and argues that anticipation and prediction of war is more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation.
Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Paradoxes Of Strategic Intelligence
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Author : Richard K. Betts
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2004-08-02
Paradoxes Of Strategic Intelligence written by Richard K. Betts and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-08-02 with History categories.
Part of a three part collection in honour of the teachings of Michael I. Handel, one of the foremost strategists of the late 20th century, this collection explores the paradoxes of intelligence analysis, surprise and deception from both historical and theoretical perspectives.
Intelligence And Strategic Surprises
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Author : Ariel Levite
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 1987
Intelligence And Strategic Surprises written by Ariel Levite and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with History categories.
Strategic Warning Intelligence
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Author : John A. Gentry
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2019-03-01
Strategic Warning Intelligence written by John A. Gentry and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-01 with Political Science categories.
John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students.
Intelligence And U S Foreign Policy
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Author : Paul R. Pillar
language : en
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Release Date : 2011-09-06
Intelligence And U S Foreign Policy written by Paul R. Pillar and has been published by Columbia University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-06 with Political Science categories.
A career of nearly three decades with the CIA and the National Intelligence Council showed Paul R. Pillar that intelligence reforms, especially measures enacted since 9/11, can be deeply misguided. They often miss the sources that underwrite failed policy and misperceive our ability to read outside influences. They also misconceive the intelligence-policy relationship and promote changes that weaken intelligence-gathering operations. In this book, Pillar confronts the intelligence myths Americans have come to rely on to explain national tragedies, including the belief that intelligence drives major national security decisions and can be fixed to avoid future failures. Pillar believes these assumptions waste critical resources and create harmful policies, diverting attention away from smarter reform, and they keep Americans from recognizing the limits of obtainable knowledge. Pillar revisits U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War and highlights the small role intelligence played in those decisions, and he demonstrates the negligible effect that America's most notorious intelligence failures had on U.S. policy and interests. He then reviews in detail the events of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, condemning the 9/11 commission and the George W. Bush administration for their portrayals of the role of intelligence. Pillar offers an original approach to better informing U.S. policy, which involves insulating intelligence management from politicization and reducing the politically appointed layer in the executive branch to combat slanted perceptions of foreign threats. Pillar concludes with principles for adapting foreign policy to inevitable uncertainties.