Preventing Surprise Attacks
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Preventing Surprise Attacks
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Author : Richard A. Posner
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2005
Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Political Science categories.
Posner discusses the utter futilty of this reform act in a searing critique of the 9/11 Commission, its recommendations, Congress's role in making law, and the law's inability to do what it is intended to do.
Surprise Attack
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Author : Richard K. Betts
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982
Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Political Science categories.
Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders."Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
Intelligence And Surprise Attack
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Author : Erik J. Dahl
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Intelligence And Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure.
Intelligence And Surprise Attack
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Author : Erik J. Dahl
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2013-07-19
Intelligence And Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-19 with Political Science categories.
How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.
Surprise Attack
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Author : Ephraim KAM
language : en
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Release Date : 2009-06-30
Surprise Attack written by Ephraim KAM and has been published by Harvard University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-30 with History categories.
Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny. --Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel
Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure And Mass Casualty Terrorism
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Author : Thomas Copeland
language : en
Publisher: BRILL
Release Date : 2007-07-30
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure And Mass Casualty Terrorism written by Thomas Copeland and has been published by BRILL this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-07-30 with Law categories.
This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.
Coping With Surprise In Great Power Conflicts
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Author : Mark F. Cancian
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2018-03-23
Coping With Surprise In Great Power Conflicts written by Mark F. Cancian and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-23 with Political Science categories.
Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.
Documents On Disarmament
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1945
Documents On Disarmament written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1945 with Disarmament categories.
Documents On Disarmament
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Author : United States. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1945
Documents On Disarmament written by United States. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1945 with Disarmament categories.