Understanding Dsge Filters In Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Understanding Dsge Filters In Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Author : Michal Andrle
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-08
Understanding Dsge Filters In Forecasting And Policy Analysis written by Michal Andrle and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data, (ii) to better understand revision properties of the model, and (iii) to impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic models. For instance, a decomposition of the flexible-price output gap, or a technology shock, into contributions of output, inflation, interest rates, and other observed variables' contribution is feasible. The intuitive nature and analytical clarity of the suggested procedures are appealing for policy-related and forecasting models.
Understanding Dsge Filters In Forecasting And Policy Analysis
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Author : Michal Andrle
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-08
Understanding Dsge Filters In Forecasting And Policy Analysis written by Michal Andrle and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data, (ii) to better understand revision properties of the model, and (iii) to impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic models. For instance, a decomposition of the flexible-price output gap, or a technology shock, into contributions of output, inflation, interest rates, and other observed variables' contribution is feasible. The intuitive nature and analytical clarity of the suggested procedures are appealing for policy-related and forecasting models.
What Is In Your Output Gap Unified Framework Decomposition Into Observables
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Author : Michal Andrle
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-10
What Is In Your Output Gap Unified Framework Decomposition Into Observables written by Michal Andrle and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Advancing The Frontiers Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-04-13
Advancing The Frontiers Of Monetary Policy written by Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation-forecast targeting is state of the art for monetary policy. This book explores first principles, including managing short-term policy trade-offs. The book also outlines efficient operational procedures and reviews the experiences of Canada, the Czech Republic, and India. The analysis highlights the need for assertive policies and maximum transparency.
Imf Research Bulletin September 2013
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-09-16
Imf Research Bulletin September 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-16 with Business & Economics categories.
The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.
Handbook Of Macroeconomics
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Author : John B. Taylor
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2016-12-01
Handbook Of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Handbook of Macroeconomics surveys all major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues. It courageously examines why existing models failed during the financial crisis, and also addresses well-deserved criticism head on. With contributions from the world's chief macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and speculation on its future constitute an investment worth making. - Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research - Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade
Macroeconomic Analysis And Parametric Control Of A Regional Economic Union
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Author : Abdykappar A. Ashimov
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-02-13
Macroeconomic Analysis And Parametric Control Of A Regional Economic Union written by Abdykappar A. Ashimov and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is a further development of the theory of parametric control. It includes: numerical methods of testing (verification) of software implementation of mathematical models by assessing the stability of mappings defined by the model; sufficient conditions for the existence of the solutions of some types of problems of dynamic optimization; the existence of continuous dependence of optimal values of criteria on exogenous functions and parameters; and the existence of points of bifurcation of extremals of such problems. It demonstrates that this theory offers a constructive methodology for middle-term forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and estimation of optimal values of economic characteristics on the basis of advanced global mathematical models, namely Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model, and Hybrid Econometric model. In addition, it includes conditions for the applicability of the computational experiments’ results, into practice.
Bayesian Econometric Modelling For Big Data
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Author : Hang Qian
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2025-06-20
Bayesian Econometric Modelling For Big Data written by Hang Qian and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-06-20 with Mathematics categories.
This book delves into scalable Bayesian statistical methods designed to tackle the challenges posed by big data. It explores a variety of divide-and-conquer and subsampling techniques, seamlessly integrating these scalable methods into a broad spectrum of econometric models. In addition to its focus on big data, the book introduces novel concepts within traditional statistics, such as the summation, subtraction, and multiplication of conjugate distributions. These arithmetic operators conceptualize pseudo data in the conjugate prior, sufficient statistics that determine the likelihood, and the posterior as a balance between data and prior information, adding an intriguing dimension to Bayesian analysis. This book also offers a deep dive into Bayesian computation. Given the intricacies of floating-point representation of real numbers, computer programs can sometimes yield unexpected or theoretically impossible results. Drawing from his experience as a senior statistical software developer, the author shares valuable strategies for designing numerically stable algorithms. The book is an essential resource for a diverse audience: graduate students seeking foundational knowledge in Bayesian econometric models, early-career statisticians eager to explore cutting-edge advancements in scalable Bayesian methods, data analysts struggling with out-of-memory challenges in large datasets, and statistical software users and developers striving to program with efficiency and numerical stability.
Economic Forecasting And Policy
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Author : N. Carnot
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2011-07-26
Economic Forecasting And Policy written by N. Carnot and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus
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Author : Karel Musil
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-07
Structural Quarterly Projection Model For Belarus written by Karel Musil and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.