Would Population Aging Change The Output Effects Of Fiscal Policy
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Would Population Aging Change The Output Effects Of Fiscal Policy
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Author : Mr.Jiro Honda
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-12
Would Population Aging Change The Output Effects Of Fiscal Policy written by Mr.Jiro Honda and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-12 with Social Science categories.
Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as population ages, the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened. We also find that, while high-debt countries generally face weaker fiscal multipliers, high-debt aging economies face even weaker multipliers. These results point to important policy implications: population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession and thus require larger fiscal space to allow a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability. Our analysis also suggests that policy measures to promote labor supply could help increase the output effect of fiscal stimulus in aging economies.
How To Assess Fiscal Implications Of Demographic Shifts
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Author : Mr.David Amaglobeli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-27
How To Assess Fiscal Implications Of Demographic Shifts written by Mr.David Amaglobeli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?
Macroeconomic Effects Of Prelected Population Aging In Industrial Countries
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Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1990-01-01
Macroeconomic Effects Of Prelected Population Aging In Industrial Countries written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The effects of population aging are examined with the aid of a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower the capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging. Simulations of projected demographic changes suggest that by 2025, real interest rates would be increased by several percentage points and net foreign assets increased in the United States, and decreased in Japan and Germany, as a result.
The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations
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Author : Mr.Benedict J. Clements
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-26
The Fiscal Consequences Of Shrinking Populations written by Mr.Benedict J. Clements and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
New Developments In The Economics Of Population Ageing
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Author : John Creedy
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2007
New Developments In The Economics Of Population Ageing written by John Creedy and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume provides an important collection of recent papers on the macroeconomic effects of population ageing. The articles are focused into three categories which cover the main channels through which population ageing affects national living standards: productivity and growth; consumption and saving; and labour market and fiscal effects. The papers have been selected for their clear and valuable contributions to this field of study. The book will be an essential reference volume for academic and public sector economists, policy makers and demographers.
The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Stimulating Economic Activity
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Author : Richard Hemming
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2002-12
The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Aging And The Macroeconomy
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2013-01-10
Aging And The Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-10 with Social Science categories.
The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Fiscal Policy And Long Term Growth
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-04-20
Fiscal Policy And Long Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
The Great Demographic Reversal
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Author : Charles Goodhart
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-08-08
The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
The Growing Gap In Life Expectancy By Income
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Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2015-09-17
The Growing Gap In Life Expectancy By Income written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-17 with Social Science categories.
The U.S. population is aging. Social Security projections suggest that between 2013 and 2050, the population aged 65 and over will almost double, from 45 million to 86 million. One key driver of population aging is ongoing increases in life expectancy. Average U.S. life expectancy was 67 years for males and 73 years for females five decades ago; the averages are now 76 and 81, respectively. It has long been the case that better-educated, higher-income people enjoy longer life expectancies than less-educated, lower-income people. The causes include early life conditions, behavioral factors (such as nutrition, exercise, and smoking behaviors), stress, and access to health care services, all of which can vary across education and income. Our major entitlement programs - Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income - have come to deliver disproportionately larger lifetime benefits to higher-income people because, on average, they are increasingly collecting those benefits over more years than others. This report studies the impact the growing gap in life expectancy has on the present value of lifetime benefits that people with higher or lower earnings will receive from major entitlement programs. The analysis presented in The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income goes beyond an examination of the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive estimates of how lifetime benefits are affected by the changing distribution of life expectancy. The report also explores, from a lifetime benefit perspective, how the growing gap in longevity affects traditional policy analyses of reforms to the nation's leading entitlement programs. This in-depth analysis of the economic impacts of the longevity gap will inform debate and assist decision makers, economists, and researchers.