A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam
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A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam
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Author : Allan Dizioli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23
A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam written by Allan Dizioli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.
Quarterly Projection Model For Vietnam A Hybrid Approach For Monetary Policy Implementation
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Author : Mr. Natan P. Epstein
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-24
Quarterly Projection Model For Vietnam A Hybrid Approach For Monetary Policy Implementation written by Mr. Natan P. Epstein and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting In The World Economy
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Author : Francis Vitek
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-10-01
Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting In The World Economy written by Francis Vitek and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
A Practical Model Based Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis Overview
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Author : Philippe D Karam
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2006-03-01
A Practical Model Based Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis Overview written by Philippe D Karam and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-03-01 with categories.
This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. It contrasts this approach with financial programming and its emphasis on monetary aggregates, as well as with more econometrically driven analyses. It presents illustrative results from an application to Canada. A companion paper provides a more detailed how-to guide and introduces a set of tools designed to facilitate this approach.
A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam
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Author : Allan Dizioli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23
A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam written by Allan Dizioli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.
Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting In The Group Of Twenty
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Author : Francis Vitek
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-06-01
Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting In The Group Of Twenty written by Francis Vitek and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Vietnam
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09-29
Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the scoping mission of a new TA project aimed at building capacity in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). The MPI is establishing a Core Working Group (CWG) under MPI’s coordination that will carry out macroeconomic analysis using Macroeconomic Projection Tool (MPT) and integrate the results in the policy making process. Based on the mission’s finding and assessment, the mission team and the authorities agreed on a three-year TA action plan that includes training components during the early stage of the project. During Phase 1 (2023-24), the activities would focus on developing and operating the Macro-Framework Foundation Tool (MFT) and the Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT) to produce macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Depending on progress, the MPT could be enhanced during Phase 2 (2025-26) and the tentative plan is to develop Comprehensive Adaptive Expectation Model (CAEM). The CWG will take the lead in implementing the activities and targets identified in the TA action plan and will be supported by the IMF TA team.
A Simple Macrofiscal Model For Policy Analysis An Application To Cambodia
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Author : Daniel Baksa
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-09-25
A Simple Macrofiscal Model For Policy Analysis An Application To Cambodia written by Daniel Baksa and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-25 with categories.
The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model helps to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice.
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-23
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.