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A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam

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A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam

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Author : Allan Dizioli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23

A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam written by Allan Dizioli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.

A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam

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Author : Allan Dizioli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23

Vietnam

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-07-18

Vietnam written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-18 with Business & Economics categories.

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions.

Argentina

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-15

Argentina written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper discusses Argentina’s investment rate which was well below the average of Latin American countries and that of a peer group of advanced and emerging market countries, with a larger gap in private investment. Raising investment prospects would be essential to boost economic activity. The administration that took office in December 2015 has emphasized the importance of generating an investor friendly environment that allows Argentina to recover some of the growth opportunities lost over the last few decades. Although quantifying the capital accumulation gap is a clearly a difficult task, one way of doing so is to look at the difference between Argentina’s capital-labor ratio and that of the selected peer group of countries. Argentina’s investment rates and capital-output ratios are also compared with estimates of their steady state values derived from standard neoclassical growth models. Argentina’s investment rate would need to increase significantly to eliminate the capital accumulation gap built during the last two decades, and this could significantly accelerate GDP growth.

Imf Research Bulletin March 2016

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-06

Imf Research Bulletin March 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-06 with Business & Economics categories.

The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods In Economics

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Author : Vladik Kreinovich
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-11-24

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods In Economics written by Vladik Kreinovich and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-24 with Computers categories.

This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.

Partial Identification In Econometrics And Related Topics

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Author : Nguyen Ngoc Thach
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-07-31

Partial Identification In Econometrics And Related Topics written by Nguyen Ngoc Thach and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-31 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This book covers data processing techniques, with economic and financial application being the unifying theme. To make proper investments in economy, the authors need to have a good understanding of the future trends: how will demand change, how will prices change, etc. In general, in science, the usual way to make predictions is: to identify a model that best fits the current dynamics, and to use this model to predict the future behavior. In many practical situations—especially in economics—our past experiences are limited. As a result, the authors can only achieve a partial identification. It is therefore important to be able to make predictions based on such partially identified models—which is the main focus of this book. This book emphasizes partial identification techniques, but it also describes and uses other econometric techniques, ranging from more traditional statistical techniques to more innovative ones such as game-theoretic approach, interval techniques, and machine learning. Applications range from general analysis of GDP growth, stock market, and consumer prices to analysis of specific sectors of economics (credit and banking, energy, health, labor, tourism, international trade) to specific issues affecting economy such as ecology, national culture, government regulations, and the existence of shadow economy. This book shows what has been achieved, but even more important are remaining open problems. The authors hope that this book will: inspire practitioners to learn how to apply state-of-the-art techniques, especially techniques of optimal transport statistics, to economic and financial problems, and inspire researchers to further improve the existing techniques and to come up with new techniques for studying economic and financial phenomena. The authors want to thank all the authors for their contributions and all anonymous referees for their thorough analysis and helpful comments. The publication of this book—and organization of the conference at which these papers were presented—was supported: by the Ho Chi Minh University of Banking (HUB), Vietnam, and by the Vingroup Innovation Foundation (VINIF). The authors thank the leadership and staff of HUB and VINIF for providing crucial support.

Monetary Policy In Low Financial Development Countries

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Author : Juan Antonio Morales
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2021-07-22

Monetary Policy In Low Financial Development Countries written by Juan Antonio Morales and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.

Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries provides a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues faced by developing countries with low financial depth. These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by the predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets, and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. This book covers the main facets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines discussions of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of relevant policy experiences. It presents the monetary policy instruments that central banks rely on in these countries. It assesses the specificities of their monetary transmission mechanism, i.e. the way central banks' actions affect output and prices. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks, and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. This discussion is set against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output, and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable, lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The authors also cover more specific topics, such as the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, the challenges raised by dollarization, the implications of informal labour markets and of microfinance institutions for monetary policy-making, as well as the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation by central banks.

Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems

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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993

Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

Monetary And Macroprudential Policy With Endogenous Risk

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Author : Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020

Monetary And Macroprudential Policy With Endogenous Risk written by Tobias Adrian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.

A Macro Model Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting For Vietnam

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