A Simple Macrofiscal Model For Policy Analysis An Application To Cambodia
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A Simple Macrofiscal Model For Policy Analysis An Application To Cambodia
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Author : Daniel Baksa
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-09-25
A Simple Macrofiscal Model For Policy Analysis An Application To Cambodia written by Daniel Baksa and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-25 with categories.
The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model helps to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-11-15
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana Extensions And Applications written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-11-15 with categories.
The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework.
A Semi Structural Model For Credit Cycle And Policy Analysis An Application For Luxembourg
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Author : Carlos de Resende
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-07-09
A Semi Structural Model For Credit Cycle And Policy Analysis An Application For Luxembourg written by Carlos de Resende and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-09 with categories.
The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model Credit Cycle Macrofinancial Linkages And Macroprudential Measures The Case Of The Philippines
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Author : Philippe Karam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
An Extended Quarterly Projection Model Credit Cycle Macrofinancial Linkages And Macroprudential Measures The Case Of The Philippines written by Philippe Karam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana
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Author : Philip Abradu-Otoo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-09-02
Quarterly Projection Model For The Bank Of Ghana written by Philip Abradu-Otoo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries
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Author : Valeriu Nalban
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-23
Qpm Based Analysis Of Weather Shocks And Monetary Policy In Developing Countries written by Valeriu Nalban and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-23 with categories.
Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, the policy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exercises highlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures in the consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for the damaged domestic agricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility, and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions in developing countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conduct relative to developed economies.
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems
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Author : John C. Odling-Smee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1993
Taking Stock Of Imf Capacity Development On Monetary Policy Forecasting And Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
Morocco S Monetary Policy Transmission In The Wake Of The Covid 19 Pandemic
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Author : Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-21
Morocco S Monetary Policy Transmission In The Wake Of The Covid 19 Pandemic written by Mr. Roberto Cardarelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.
Kingdom Of Lesotho
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-20
Kingdom Of Lesotho written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Kingdom of Lesotho: Selected Issues
Using Macroeconomic Frameworks To Analyze The Impact Of Covid 19
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Author : Mr. Ales Bulir
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04
Using Macroeconomic Frameworks To Analyze The Impact Of Covid 19 written by Mr. Ales Bulir and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.