Accelerating Monte Carlo Methods For Bayesian Inference In Dynamical Models

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Accelerating Monte Carlo Methods For Bayesian Inference In Dynamical Models

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Author : Johan Dahlin
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2016-03-22

Accelerating Monte Carlo Methods For Bayesian Inference In Dynamical Models written by Johan Dahlin and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-22 with categories.

Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Exploiting Direct Optimal Control For Motion Planning In Unstructured Environments

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Author : Kristoffer Bergman
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2021-03-16

Exploiting Direct Optimal Control For Motion Planning In Unstructured Environments written by Kristoffer Bergman and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-16 with categories.

During the last decades, motion planning for autonomous systems has become an important area of research. The high interest is not the least due to the development of systems such as self-driving cars, unmanned aerial vehicles and robotic manipulators. The objective in optimal motion planning problems is to find feasible motion plans that also optimize a performance measure. From a control perspective, the problem is an instance of an optimal control problem. This thesis addresses optimal motion planning problems for complex dynamical systems that operate in unstructured environments, where no prior reference such as road-lane information is available. Some example scenarios are autonomous docking of vessels in harbors and autonomous parking of self-driving tractor-trailer vehicles at loading sites. The focus is to develop optimal motion planning algorithms that can reliably be applied to these types of problems. This is achieved by combining recent ideas from automatic control, numerical optimization and robotics. The first contribution is a systematic approach for computing local solutions to motion planning problems in challenging unstructured environments. The solutions are computed by combining homotopy methods and direct optimal control techniques. The general principle is to define a homotopy that transforms, or preferably relaxes, the original problem to an easily solved problem. The approach is demonstrated in motion planning problems in 2D and 3D environments, where the presented method outperforms a state-of-the-art asymptotically optimal motion planner based on random sampling. The second contribution is an optimization-based framework for automatic generation of motion primitives for lattice-based motion planners. Given a family of systems, the user only needs to specify which principle types of motions that are relevant for the considered system family. Based on the selected principle motions and a selected system instance, the framework computes a library of motion primitives by simultaneously optimizing the motions and the terminal states. The final contribution of this thesis is a motion planning framework that combines the strengths of sampling-based planners with direct optimal control in a novel way. The sampling-based planner is applied to the problem in a first step using a discretized search space, where the system dynamics and objective function are chosen to coincide with those used in a second step based on optimal control. This combination ensures that the sampling-based motion planner provides a feasible motion plan which is highly suitable as warm-start to the optimal control step. Furthermore, the second step is modified such that it also can be applied in a receding-horizon fashion, where the proposed combination of methods is used to provide theoretical guarantees in terms of recursive feasibility, worst-case objective function value and convergence to the terminal state. The proposed motion planning framework is successfully applied to several problems in challenging unstructured environments for tractor-trailer vehicles. The framework is also applied and tailored for maritime navigation for vessels in archipelagos and harbors, where it is able to compute energy-efficient trajectories which complies with the international regulations for preventing collisions at sea.

Probabilistic Modeling For Sensor Fusion With Inertial Measurements

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Author : Manon Kok
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2016-12-15

Probabilistic Modeling For Sensor Fusion With Inertial Measurements written by Manon Kok and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-15 with categories.

In recent years, inertial sensors have undergone major developments. The quality of their measurements has improved while their cost has decreased, leading to an increase in availability. They can be found in stand-alone sensor units, so-called inertial measurement units, but are nowadays also present in for instance any modern smartphone, in Wii controllers and in virtual reality headsets. The term inertial sensor refers to the combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes. These measure the external specific force and the angular velocity, respectively. Integration of their measurements provides information about the sensor's position and orientation. However, the position and orientation estimates obtained by simple integration suffer from drift and are therefore only accurate on a short time scale. In order to improve these estimates, we combine the inertial sensors with additional sensors and models. To combine these different sources of information, also called sensor fusion, we make use of probabilistic models to take the uncertainty of the different sources of information into account. The first contribution of this thesis is a tutorial paper that describes the signal processing foundations underlying position and orientation estimation using inertial sensors. In a second contribution, we use data from multiple inertial sensors placed on the human body to estimate the body's pose. A biomechanical model encodes the knowledge about how the different body segments are connected to each other. We also show how the structure inherent to this problem can be exploited. This opens up for processing long data sets and for solving the problem in a distributed manner. Inertial sensors can also be combined with time of arrival measurements from an ultrawideband (UWB) system. We focus both on calibration of the UWB setup and on sensor fusion of the inertial and UWB measurements. The UWB measurements are modeled by a tailored heavy-tailed asymmetric distribution. This distribution naturally handles the possibility of measurement delays due to multipath and non-line-of-sight conditions while not allowing for the possibility of measurements arriving early, i.e. traveling faster than the speed of light. Finally, inertial sensors can be combined with magnetometers. We derive an algorithm that can calibrate a magnetometer for the presence of metallic objects attached to the sensor. Furthermore, the presence of metallic objects in the environment can be exploited by using them as a source of position information. We present a method to build maps of the indoor magnetic field and experimentally show that if a map of the magnetic field is available, accurate position estimates can be obtained by combining inertial and magnetometer measurements.

Structure Exploiting Numerical Algorithms For Optimal Control

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Author : Isak Nielsen
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2017-04-20

Structure Exploiting Numerical Algorithms For Optimal Control written by Isak Nielsen and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-20 with categories.

Numerical algorithms for efficiently solving optimal control problems are important for commonly used advanced control strategies, such as model predictive control (MPC), but can also be useful for advanced estimation techniques, such as moving horizon estimation (MHE). In MPC, the control input is computed by solving a constrained finite-time optimal control (CFTOC) problem on-line, and in MHE the estimated states are obtained by solving an optimization problem that often can be formulated as a CFTOC problem. Common types of optimization methods for solving CFTOC problems are interior-point (IP) methods, sequential quadratic programming (SQP) methods and active-set (AS) methods. In these types of methods, the main computational effort is often the computation of the second-order search directions. This boils down to solving a sequence of systems of equations that correspond to unconstrained finite-time optimal control (UFTOC) problems. Hence, high-performing second-order methods for CFTOC problems rely on efficient numerical algorithms for solving UFTOC problems. Developing such algorithms is one of the main focuses in this thesis. When the solution to a CFTOC problem is computed using an AS type method, the aforementioned system of equations is only changed by a low-rank modification between two AS iterations. In this thesis, it is shown how to exploit these structured modifications while still exploiting structure in the UFTOC problem using the Riccati recursion. Furthermore, direct (non-iterative) parallel algorithms for computing the search directions in IP, SQP and AS methods are proposed in the thesis. These algorithms exploit, and retain, the sparse structure of the UFTOC problem such that no dense system of equations needs to be solved serially as in many other algorithms. The proposed algorithms can be applied recursively to obtain logarithmic computational complexity growth in the prediction horizon length. For the case with linear MPC problems, an alternative approach to solving the CFTOC problem on-line is to use multiparametric quadratic programming (mp-QP), where the corresponding CFTOC problem can be solved explicitly off-line. This is referred to as explicit MPC. One of the main limitations with mp-QP is the amount of memory that is required to store the parametric solution. In this thesis, an algorithm for decreasing the required amount of memory is proposed. The aim is to make mp-QP and explicit MPC more useful in practical applications, such as embedded systems with limited memory resources. The proposed algorithm exploits the structure from the QP problem in the parametric solution in order to reduce the memory footprint of general mp-QP solutions, and in particular, of explicit MPC solutions. The algorithm can be used directly in mp-QP solvers, or as a post-processing step to an existing solution.

Bayesian Inference In Dynamic Econometric Models

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Author : Luc Bauwens
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2000-01-06

Bayesian Inference In Dynamic Econometric Models written by Luc Bauwens and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-01-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This book contains an up-to-date coverage of the last twenty years advances in Bayesian inference in econometrics, with an emphasis on dynamic models. It shows how to treat Bayesian inference in non linear models, by integrating the useful developments of numerical integration techniques based on simulations (such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods), and the long available analytical results of Bayesian inference for linear regression models. It thus covers a broad range of rather recent models for economic time series, such as non linear models, autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic regressions, and cointegrated vector autoregressive models. It contains also an extensive chapter on unit root inference from the Bayesian viewpoint. Several examples illustrate the methods.

Inverse System Identification With Applications In Predistortion

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Author : Ylva Jung
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2018-12-19

Inverse System Identification With Applications In Predistortion written by Ylva Jung and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-19 with categories.

Models are commonly used to simulate events and processes, and can be constructed from measured data using system identification. The common way is to model the system from input to output, but in this thesis we want to obtain the inverse of the system. Power amplifiers (PAs) used in communication devices can be nonlinear, and this causes interference in adjacent transmitting channels. A prefilter, called predistorter, can be used to invert the effects of the PA, such that the combination of predistorter and PA reconstructs an amplified version of the input signal. In this thesis, the predistortion problem has been investigated for outphasing power amplifiers, where the input signal is decomposed into two branches that are amplified separately by highly efficient nonlinear amplifiers and then recombined. We have formulated a model structure describing the imperfections in an outphasing abbrPA and the matching ideal predistorter. The predistorter can be estimated from measured data in different ways. Here, the initially nonconvex optimization problem has been developed into a convex problem. The predistorters have been evaluated in measurements. The goal with the inverse models in this thesis is to use them in cascade with the systems to reconstruct the original input. It is shown that the problems of identifying a model of a preinverse and a postinverse are fundamentally different. It turns out that the true inverse is not necessarily the best one when noise is present, and that other models and structures can lead to better inversion results. To construct a predistorter (for a PA, for example), a model of the inverse is used, and different methods can be used for the estimation. One common method is to estimate a postinverse, and then using it as a preinverse, making it straightforward to try out different model structures. Another is to construct a model of the system and then use it to estimate a preinverse in a second step. This method identifies the inverse in the setup it will be used, but leads to a complicated optimization problem. A third option is to model the forward system and then invert it. This method can be understood using standard identification theory in contrast to the ones above, but the model is tuned for the forward system, not the inverse. Models obtained using the various methods capture different properties of the system, and a more detailed analysis of the methods is presented for linear time-invariant systems and linear approximations of block-oriented systems. The theory is also illustrated in examples. When a preinverse is used, the input to the system will be changed, and typically the input data will be different than the original input. This is why the estimation of preinverses is more complicated than for postinverses, and one set of experimental data is not enough. Here, we have shown that identifying a preinverse in series with the system in repeated experiments can improve the inversion performance.

Fighter Aircraft Maneuver Limiting Using Mpc Theory And Application

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Author : Daniel Simon
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2017-09-12

Fighter Aircraft Maneuver Limiting Using Mpc Theory And Application written by Daniel Simon and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-12 with categories.

Flight control design for modern fighter aircraft is a challenging task. Aircraft are dynamical systems, which naturally contain a variety of constraints and nonlinearities such as, e.g., maximum permissible load factor, angle of attack and control surface deflections. Taking these limitations into account in the design of control systems is becoming increasingly important as the performance and complexity of the aircraft is constantly increasing. The aeronautical industry has traditionally applied feedforward, anti-windup or similar techniques and different ad hoc engineering solutions to handle constraints on the aircraft. However these approaches often rely on engineering experience and insight rather than a theoretical foundation, and can often require a tremendous amount of time to tune. In this thesis we investigate model predictive control as an alternative design tool to handle the constraints that arises in the flight control design. We derive a simple reference tracking MPC algorithm for linear systems that build on the dual mode formulation with guaranteed stability and low complexity suitable for implementation in real time safety critical systems. To reduce the computational burden of nonlinear model predictive control we propose a method to handle the nonlinear constraints, using a set of dynamically generated local inner polytopic approximations. The main benefit of the proposed method is that while computationally cheap it still can guarantee recursive feasibility and convergence. An alternative to deriving MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability properties is to analyze the closed loop stability, post design. Here we focus on deriving a tool based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming for analysis of the closed loop stability and robust stability of linear systems controlled with MPC controllers. To test the performance of model predictive control for a real world example we design and implement a standard MPC controller in the development simulator for the JAS 39 Gripen aircraft at Saab Aeronautics. This part of the thesis focuses on practical and tuning aspects of designing MPC controllers for fighter aircraft. Finally we have compared the MPC design with an alternative approach to maneuver limiting using a command governor.

Bayesian Time Series Models

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Author : David Barber
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-08-11

Bayesian Time Series Models written by David Barber and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-11 with Computers categories.

The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.

Discrete Choice Methods With Simulation

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Author : Kenneth E. Train
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2009-06-30

Discrete Choice Methods With Simulation written by Kenneth E. Train and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. This second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Machine Learning Using Approximate Inference

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Author : Christian Andersson Naesseth
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2018-11-27

Machine Learning Using Approximate Inference written by Christian Andersson Naesseth and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-27 with categories.

Automatic decision making and pattern recognition under uncertainty are difficult tasks that are ubiquitous in our everyday life. The systems we design, and technology we develop, requires us to coherently represent and work with uncertainty in data. Probabilistic models and probabilistic inference gives us a powerful framework for solving this problem. Using this framework, while enticing, results in difficult-to-compute integrals and probabilities when conditioning on the observed data. This means we have a need for approximate inference, methods that solves the problem approximately using a systematic approach. In this thesis we develop new methods for efficient approximate inference in probabilistic models. There are generally two approaches to approximate inference, variational methods and Monte Carlo methods. In Monte Carlo methods we use a large number of random samples to approximate the integral of interest. With variational methods, on the other hand, we turn the integration problem into that of an optimization problem. We develop algorithms of both types and bridge the gap between them. First, we present a self-contained tutorial to the popular sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) class of methods. Next, we propose new algorithms and applications based on SMC for approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models. We derive nested sequential Monte Carlo, a new algorithm particularly well suited for inference in a large class of high-dimensional probabilistic models. Then, inspired by similar ideas we derive interacting particle Markov chain Monte Carlo to make use of parallelization to speed up approximate inference for universal probabilistic programming languages. After that, we show how we can make use of the rejection sampling process when generating gamma distributed random variables to speed up variational inference. Finally, we bridge the gap between SMC and variational methods by developing variational sequential Monte Carlo, a new flexible family of variational approximations.