Avoid A Fall Or Fly Again Turning Points Of State Fragility
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Avoid A Fall Or Fly Again Turning Points Of State Fragility
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Author : Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-06
Avoid A Fall Or Fly Again Turning Points Of State Fragility written by Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-06 with Business & Economics categories.
High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.
Handbook Of Fragile States
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Author : David Carment
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2023-08-14
Handbook Of Fragile States written by David Carment and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-14 with Political Science categories.
This timely Handbook examines the causes, costs and consequences of state fragility, advancing key debates in the field. Demonstrating the multidimensionality of fragility by applying diverse theories and methodologies, it provides new insights on effective policy development and application in the context of fragile states.
Global Shocks Unfolding Lessons From Fragile And Conflict Affected States
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Author : Jocelyn Boussard
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-10-04
Global Shocks Unfolding Lessons From Fragile And Conflict Affected States written by Jocelyn Boussard and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-04 with categories.
This paper investigates the consequences of global shocks on a sample of low- and lower-middle-income countries with a particular focus on fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). FCS are a group of countries that display institutional weakness and/or are negatively affected by active conflict, thereby facing challenges in macroeconomic policy management. Examining different global shocks associated with commodity prices, external demand, and financing conditions, this paper establishes that FCS economies are more vulnerable to these shocks compared to non-FCS peers. The higher sensitivity of FCS economies is mainly driven by procyclical fiscal responses, aggravated by the lack of effective spending controls and timely access to financial sources. External financing serves as a source of stability, partially mitigating the adverse impact of global shocks. This paper contributes to a better understanding of how conditions of fragility, which are on the rise in many parts of the world today, can amplify the effects of negative exogenous shocks. Its results highlight the diverse nature of underlying sources of vulnerabilities, spanning from fiscal and external buffers to institutional quality and economic structure, with lessons applicable to a broader set of countries. Efficient and timely external financial support from external partners, including international financial institutions, should help countries’ counter-cyclical responses to mitigate adverse shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.
The Urgency Of Conflict Prevention A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Author : Hannes Mueller
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-12-20
The Urgency Of Conflict Prevention A Macroeconomic Perspective written by Hannes Mueller and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-20 with categories.
Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts? This paper contends that two key criteria need to be satisfied: the long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costs associated with uncertain forecasts, and the policies themselves must be directly able to contribute to conflict prevention. This paper proposes policy simulations, based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) that integrates machine learning and dynamic optimization, to show that investing in prevention can generate huge long-run benefits. Returns to prevention policies in countries that have not suffered recently from violence range from $26 to $75 per $1 spent on prevention, and for countries with recent violence, the rate of return could be as high as $103 per $1 spent on prevention. Furthermore, an analysis of the available data and results in the literature suggest that sound macroeconomic policies and international support for these policies can play key roles in conflict prevention. Based on these findings, this paper proposes actionable recommendations, for both global and domestic policymakers as well as international financial institutions and multilateral organizations, to promote peace and stability through macroeconomic policy.
Staff Guidance Note On The Implementation Of The Imf Strategy For Fragile And Conflict Affected States Fcs
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-22
Staff Guidance Note On The Implementation Of The Imf Strategy For Fragile And Conflict Affected States Fcs written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This note provides operational advice and information to help staff implement the IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) approved by the Executive Board on March 9, 2022. Topics covered include (i) the new IMF FCS classification methodology, which is aligned with that of the World Bank; (ii) the preparation of Country Engagement Strategies (CES) that will be rolled out across FCS to ensure that Fund engagement is appropriately tailored to country-specific manifestations of fragility and/or conflict; (iii) advice on tailoring the thematic focus of Article IV consultations and Fund analytics to FCS, as well as on the prioritization, design, and implementation of capacity development (CD) projects in fragile contexts; (iv) guidance on making full use of the flexibilities of the lending toolkit; (v) guidance on engaging in specific FCS situations, including building accountable institutions to exit fragility, cases of rising fragility risks, active conflict, post-conflict, and addressing the impact of external shocks and spillovers; and (v) strengthening partnerships with humanitarian, development, and peace actors, in accordance with the Fund’s mandate. Dedicated annexes provide additional information on the CES process, addressing good governance in FCS, program design, and country examples of Fund engagement in FCS.
Mali
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-14
Mali written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Mali: Selected Issues
Leveling The Playing Field
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Author : Nistha Sinha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2024-12-02
Leveling The Playing Field written by Nistha Sinha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Structural sources of Africa’s inequality are rooted in laws, institutions, and practices that create advantages for a few but disadvantages for many. They include differences in living standards that come from inherited or unalterable characteristics, such as where people are born and their parents’ education, ethnicity, religion, and gender. They also arise from market and institutional distortions that privilege some firms, farms, and workers to access markets, employment, and opportunities while limiting access for the majority and limiting earning opportunities. Leveling the Playing Field: Addressing Structural Inequalities to Accelerate Poverty Reduction in Africa argues that policies to address high levels of structural inequality in Africa are also at the heart of what is needed to accelerate progress in reducing extreme poverty.There is nothing inevitable about structural inequality. Economies that put up barriers to opportunities can also remove and replace them with policies that create a level playing field. Indeed, across the world, countries where opportunities are distributed more fairly grow faster and have lower poverty incidence. Broadening access to opportunities represents one of Africa’s key prospects for raising productivity and earnings and accelerating poverty reduction. Leveraging the most recent data available for the region, Leveling the Playing Field provides recommendations aimed at improving the productive capacity of the poor, the ability of poor individuals to use their capacities for well-paying job opportunities, and the design of fair fiscal policies.
Zimbabwe 2022 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Zimbabwe
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-04-08
Zimbabwe 2022 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Zimbabwe written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Zimbabwe experienced severe exogenous shocks (cyclone Idai, protracted drought, and the COVID-19 pandemic) during 2019-20, which along with policy missteps in 2019, led to a deep recession and high inflation. Real GDP contracted cumulatively by 11.7 percent during 2019-20 and inflation reached 837 percent (y/y) by July 2020. Reflecting good rainfall and relaxation of containment measures, real GDP rose by 6.3 percent in 2021. A tighter policy stance since mid-2020 (relative to 2019) has contributed to reducing inflation to 60.7 percent (y/y) at end-2021. However, high double-digit inflation and wide parallel foreign exchange (FX) market premia persist. The economic downturn and high inflation increased the financial system vulnerabilities. Extreme poverty has risen and about a third of the population is at risk of food insecurity. The international community seeks improvements in domestic political conditions and economic policies to initiate reengagement with Zimbabwe. The authorities have started token payments to external creditors in a bid to revive international reengagement.
World Social Report 2024
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Author : Department of Economic and Social Affairs
language : en
Publisher: Stylus Publishing, LLC
Release Date : 2024-10-17
World Social Report 2024 written by Department of Economic and Social Affairs and has been published by Stylus Publishing, LLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The nature of crises has been transformed significantly in recent years. Shocks have become more intense, widespread, and interlinked. Extreme weather events happen with increasing frequency and ferocity; economic, financial, social, and health shocks quickly spread around the world; conflict and insecurity are a daily reality for millions. The combined effect of more numerous and more powerful shocks, denser interconnections, and existing shortfalls creates a daunting challenge to social development in countries, already struggling to make significant progress on the Sustainable Development Goals.
Krizlerin Sosyoekonomik Etkileri Lke Ve Sekt R Al Malar
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Author : Meltem OKUR DİNÇSOY
language : tr
Publisher: Efe Akademi Yayınları
Release Date : 2022-05-11
Krizlerin Sosyoekonomik Etkileri Lke Ve Sekt R Al Malar written by Meltem OKUR DİNÇSOY and has been published by Efe Akademi Yayınları this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Hakkında: Bu çalışmada krizlerin dünya ekonomi tarihindeki yerini farklı disiplinler açısından değerlendirmeye çalışılmıştır. Dünya krizler tarihine bakıldığı zaman çıkış sebepleriyle yarattığı etki bakımından her bir krizin farklı bir özelliğe sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Literatürde krizlerle ilgili yapılan çalışmaların zaman zaman döneme odaklandığını zaman zaman ise sektörel bir bakış açısının ön plana çıktığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada literatürde oluşan kavramsal yaklaşımların hem süreç analizlerini hem de güncel olayları kapsayıcı bir boyutta toplamaya çalışılmıştır. Bu perspektifte bir takım spesifik sektörlerin krizlerden etkilenmelerini analiz ederken diğer bir perspektiften de dünya tarihine geçmiş, 1929 Buhranı, Petrol şoku, 2008 Küresel Finans krizi gibi krizlerin analizlerine de yer verilmiştir.