Bayesian Methods In International Migration Forecasting
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Bayesian Methods In International Migration Forecasting
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Bayesian Methods In International Migration Forecasting written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-10-23
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-23 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-11-30
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-30 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
International Migration In Europe
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Author : James Raymer
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-04-15
International Migration In Europe written by James Raymer and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Mathematics categories.
At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
Towards Bayesian Model Based Demography
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-12-09
Towards Bayesian Model Based Demography written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-09 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Forecasting International Migration
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Forecasting International Migration written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
Developments In Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Stefano Mazzuco
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-09-28
Developments In Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-28 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
European Immigrations
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Author : Marek Okólski
language : en
Publisher: Amsterdam University Press
Release Date : 2012-08-01
European Immigrations written by Marek Okólski and has been published by Amsterdam University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-01 with Social Science categories.
This volume of the latest research in European migration embraces a continent-wide outlook on migration processes and accounts particularly from Southern and Eastern European perspectives. This is accomplished by analyzing the long-term transition that countries undergo from net emigration to net immigration, as well as developments in their migrant inflows, integration, and policy. The mix of authors—representing several academic centers across Europe yet pursuing a common vision of European migration past, present, and future—utilize new empirical evidence, specially designed and collected.
Global Dynamics
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Author : Alan G. Wilson
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-05-09
Global Dynamics written by Alan G. Wilson and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-09 with Mathematics categories.
A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid. This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions. This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales. Global dynamics: Presents in depth models of global dynamics. Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid. Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development. Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development. Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts. This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.
East West Migration In The European Union
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Author : Nicolae Marinescu
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Release Date : 2017-05-11
East West Migration In The European Union written by Nicolae Marinescu and has been published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-11 with Political Science categories.
This volume investigates the challenges confronted by the European Union (EU) as an international actor deeply influenced by migration. This has been a key phenomenon in recent years and holds great political, economic and social importance for the future of the whole European continent. The book focuses on specific aspects related to East-West migration, such as the importance of migration for economic development and the multi-faceted impact of migration on sending countries, as well as recipient countries. It also includes an overview of the myriad of reasons which stand for the fundamental decision whether to emigrate or not. The collection offers a novel Eastern European perspective on contemporary migration, a hotly debated topic inside the European Union, which is far from being fully recognised and understood, and it also provides valuable, complex and comprehensive insight into the issue of South Eastern migration to Western Europe.