Forecasting International Migration
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Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-10-23
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-23 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-11-30
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-30 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Bayesian Methods In International Migration Forecasting
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Bayesian Methods In International Migration Forecasting written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
Forecasting International Migration
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Forecasting International Migration written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
International Migration And The Future Of Populations And Labour In Europe
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Author : Marek Kupiszewski
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-02-11
International Migration And The Future Of Populations And Labour In Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-11 with Social Science categories.
The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
International Migration In Europe
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Author : James Raymer
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-04-15
International Migration In Europe written by James Raymer and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Mathematics categories.
At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
International Migration And The Future Of Populations And Labour In Europe
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Author : Marek Kupiszewski
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-02-08
International Migration And The Future Of Populations And Labour In Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-08 with Social Science categories.
The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
The Future Of Migration To Europe
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Author : matteo villa
language : en
Publisher: Ledizioni
Release Date : 2020-05-14
The Future Of Migration To Europe written by matteo villa and has been published by Ledizioni this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-14 with Political Science categories.
Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
The Future Of International Migration To Oecd Countries
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2009-08-11
The Future Of International Migration To Oecd Countries written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-08-11 with categories.
Looking to the year 2030, this volume explores the social, economic and environmental forces which, in OECD countries, may combine to attract migrants of various types and backgrounds, and which, primarily in the developing world, may persuade people to leave or stay at home.
Beyond Six Billion
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2000-10-11
Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-10-11 with Social Science categories.
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.