Beating Uncertainty
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Managing Uncertainty
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Author : Michel Syrett
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-10-04
Managing Uncertainty written by Michel Syrett and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-04 with Business & Economics categories.
A guide to understanding and responding to business uncertainty in the twenty-first century Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Philips, Ford, Apple, and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.
Beating Uncertainty
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Author : Mohamed Elshahawy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017-04-24
Beating Uncertainty written by Mohamed Elshahawy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-24 with categories.
Your guide to pursuing welfare and avoiding risk during uncertain times. With this book, you'll discover simple and effective tools that will enable you to overcome uncertainty in your life and business. "Beating Uncertainty" promises: - Enablers to empower you in the face of uncertainty - Tools to fast track your results - Strategies for thriving accomplishments - Tips for decluttering your life - Techniques to control fear and anxiety - Ways to restore your focus - Reasons to take risk - Methods to cope with change And more other life changing practices.
Embracing Uncertainty
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Author : Phillip G. Clampitt
language : en
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
Release Date : 2001
Embracing Uncertainty written by Phillip G. Clampitt and has been published by M.E. Sharpe this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.
Annotation Written for business executives, this book highlights the role of uncertainty in setting realistic goals, encouraging flexibility, and adapting to change. Clampitt (information sciences, University of Wisconsin, Green Bay) and DeKoch (a consultant) discuss the dangers of false certainty, the effective leader's reaction to uncertainty, and the specific skills needed to embrace uncertainty. Examples are taken from the classroom and from the business world. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).
Mastering Uncertainty
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Author : Matt Watkinson
language : en
Publisher: BenBella Books
Release Date : 2023-03-28
Mastering Uncertainty written by Matt Watkinson and has been published by BenBella Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-28 with Business & Economics categories.
What separates the world’s most successful founders, entrepreneurs, and business leaders from the rest? It’s not visionary ideas or superhuman intelligence. It’s something more fundamental: their relationship with uncertainty. Most people are blown off course by unexpected events. Top performers, by contrast, know how to navigate our unpredictable world. Not just that: they know how to thrive in it. You can acquire this essential skill, too. In Mastering Uncertainty, investor and serial entrepreneur Csaba Konkoly and award-winning business author Matt Watkinson reveal the shortcomings of conventional business thinking and the advantages of developing a “probabilistic” mindset that turns uncertainty from a source of fear into an incredible and exciting advantage. They offer superbly practical advice on everything from how to handle setbacks and expand your network, to how to spot business opportunities and shape them into successful, growing businesses. Above all, they show how to think and operate like a great entrepreneur.
Uncertainty And Behaviour
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Author : Melanie E. Kreye
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-04-14
Uncertainty And Behaviour written by Melanie E. Kreye and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty affects us in our everyday lives, and in a wide range of situations but how do individuals and indeed organisations respond to uncertainty and how does it impact their decision-making and actions? Based on the latest developments in academic research, the author offers solid advice on how to manage uncertainty in every-day life, bringing a new perspective to these issues and extrapolating this to offer implications for an organisational and managerial context. The author brings this emerging area of research to a wider audience by: Tying together insights from various fields including psychology, engineering, business and management. Creating a framework for usefully applying the research concepts in every-day life. Extrapolating insights from the psychology of individual decision makers to the organisational context and managerial decision-making. Creating highly applicable and impactful recommendations for how managers, organisations, and every day people can understand and manage uncertainty in their life. The book is divided into two main parts. Part I deals with the behaviour of individuals facing uncertainty and includes accessible explanations and examples of every-day applications, while Part II deals with behaviour in organisations facing uncertainty, where insights from Part I are combined and related to the organisational and work context to explore how, for example, (mis)-perceptions and decision-making biases impact managerial life. This is a must read for both managers and those who are seeking to better understand their own behaviour and management approach.
The Imperfectionists
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Author : Robert McLean
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2023-04-12
The Imperfectionists written by Robert McLean and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The world is changing faster and faster, with increasing uncertainty and threat of disruption in every business and nonprofit segment. Conventional approaches to strategy development and problem solving no longer work—there is no stable industry or market equilibrium structure that we will return to “when change abates.” Most company planning processes are fantasy; market conditions are changing too quickly for arm-chair strategizing to be useful. As a consequence, many management teams are stuck in a wait-and-see posture in response to extreme uncertainty in the post-Covid environment, while others are making panicky bets, including ‘leap before you look’ acquisitions. In this sequel to their Amazon-bestseller, Bulletproof Problem Solving, Conn and McLean introduce a novel approach to strategic problem solving. Based on a decade of research and 30 new case studies, The Imperfectionists posits a dynamic approach to developing organizational direction under uncertainty based on harnessing six reinforcing strategic mindsets, which they call curiosity, dragonfly eye, occurrent behaviour, collective wisdom, imperfectionism, and show and tell. Imperfectionists are curious, they look at problems from several perspectives, and gather new data and approaches, including from outside their current industry. They deliberately step into risk, proceeding through trial and error, utilizing nimble low consequence and reversible moves to deepen their understanding of the unfolding game being played, and to build capabilities. They accept ambiguity and some apparent failures in exchange for improved learning and market position. Imperfectionists succeed with dynamic, real time strategic problem solving, confidently moving forward while others wait for certainty, or make impetuous and foolish bets. These strategic mindsets for solving tough problems in uncertain times help you fight decision biases and give you the data to develop informed strategies to win. In the fast changing world we all find ourselves in, being an imperfectionist is a critical advantage for you and your organization.
Uncertain
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Author : Arie Kruglanski
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2023-04-27
Uncertain written by Arie Kruglanski and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-27 with Self-Help categories.
TO ACHIEVE THE EXTRAORDINARY, FIRST EMBRACE THE UNKNOWN . . . Discover the definitive guide to our fear of uncertainty, and how we can stop it from holding us back 'Groundbreaking' MARTIN SELIGMAN 'One of my very favorite psychologists in the world' ANGELA DUCKWORTH 'This is the book we've been waiting for' CAROL DWECK, bestselling author of Mindset: The New Psychology of Success ____________ Do you fear uncertainty? Why is the unknown so paralysing? And how can we use doubt to our advantage? Our safe modern world has wired us to fear the unknown, rather than use it to our benefit. But what if there was a way of turning that uncertainty into our greatest strength? Imagine being able to make important decisions without anxiety. Imagine being the calm at the centre of every storm. In Uncertain, the world-renowned psychologist Professor Arie Kruglanski shows us that there's only one certain way to face the unknown, and that is to fundamentally change the way we perceive it. This definitive book will transform the way you think about the unknown. Suddenly, you'll stop fearing uncertainty and learn to not only face it, but also harness the power that comes with it. Don't let uncertainty rule your life. Instead, embrace it and achieve the extraordinary. ____________ 'This groundbreaking book is the place to go to discover how to embrace uncertainty and turn it to your growth and benefit' Martin Seligman, author of The Hope Circuit 'One of my very favorite psychologists in the world tackles a subject that is both timeless and timely [and] shows us that though uncertainty is inevitable, how we react to it is not' Angela Duckworth, bestselling author of Grit 'This is the book we've been waiting for. With his tremendous spirit, wit, knowledge, and wisdom, Kruglanski give us a book that helps us understand and navigate the uncertain world we live in. It's both based on science and filled with humanity-with deep compassion and benevolent guidance. It is a book for our time' Carol Dweck, author of Mindset: The New Psychology of Success 'If you're not sure if you need this book, then you do. Original, insightful, and thought-provoking, the world's expert on the psychology of uncertainty reveals what science can tell us about our lives on the razor's edge' Daniel Gilbert, the New York Times bestselling author of Stumbling on Happiness 'If there's anything I'm certain about, is that you'll love this book' Ayelet Fishbach, author of Get It Done
Uncertainty Deconstructed
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Author : Bruce Garvey
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2022-10-02
Uncertainty Deconstructed written by Bruce Garvey and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide. Endorsements for the book: "With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour. This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as “fake news” – part of a fascinating dissection of “dark data” – and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero – all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously. No one can completely eliminate “20:20 hindsight” from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying “if only we’d known...” less frequently." -- Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence) "Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty (‘unknown unknowns’), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or ‘unknown knowns’), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a ‘hidden influencer’ which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry." -- Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network "This is a valuable companion volume to John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty - and it is a necessary corrective to the physics envy of disciplines such as economics which achieve a false sense of certainty by creating highly plausible but unreliable simplifications of things through over generalisation - leading to simplistic proposals for interventions which can only rightly be judged through a lens of complexity and probability. I would like to be more optimistic about the ultimate effects of books of this kind - and in some fields, perhaps in military decision-making and defence I am quite optimistic. In such fields, people tend to approach decision-making through the assumption that things will go wrong, and that the effects of any mistakes will be very keenly, perhaps fatally experienced. In business and softer social policy-making, I fear the battle will be much harder. In such fields as politics and business, it is often better for the reputation "as Keynes remarked, "to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." In such fields, it is more important to make defensible decisions than to make good decisions, so an artificial sense of logical certainty will perhaps always hold an unhealthy appeal. But here's hoping anyway!" -- Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group "Here is a most insightful book, which holistically examines the ‘world of uncertainty', particularly as it impacts sense- to decision-making processes for many different stakeholders. Both scholars and practitioners, strategists to operators, soon gain from reading. Journeying from theory to practice, we embark on a comprehensive definition of uncertainty to subsequently become better equipped for its greater contemporary navigation when going forward, all elucidated by several well-structured scenarios and case-study examples. How uncertainty relates to risk (both qualitative and quantitative) is systematically charted, articulating their close interactivity. Forming a successful guide, this book has much enduring reference value and is therefore deserving of being readily retrievable as events and developments benefit from their improved understanding. Uncertainty can demonstrably be negotiated much more effectively. Alternative situations and conditions of denial, lamented as ‘we should have (fore)seen that’, no longer stand as acceptable when it comes to anticipating futures ahead. With this book, further help is now at hand." -- Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, International Intelligence & Defence Strategist, Researcher, Analyst, Educator & Consultant
The Little Book Of Managing Uncertainty
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Author : Harry Katzan Jr.
language : en
Publisher: iUniverse
Release Date : 2022-08-22
The Little Book Of Managing Uncertainty written by Harry Katzan Jr. and has been published by iUniverse this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Advanced technology is the cornerstone of modern society. Some of the reasons for studying the methods and applications of technology are that the subject serves as the basis of our everyday existence. We use technology on a daily basis, yet we know very little about the underlying concepts. We have no introduction to the subject matter, no principles of best behavior, and no theories. It is a time for change and this book fills that need. In this book, we are going to take a look at the evolving technology of uncertainty. Getting a handle on uncertainty permits a practitioner to perform in an excellent manner on tasks from management to applied technology. Modern government, such as the intelligence services, is exceedingly complicated, and uncertainty exists in almost every aspect of their daily lives. Business and finance have similar requirements so that participants can excel in all aspects of the decisions of everyday business life. The ability to deal with uncertainty is based on the methods of combining diverse possibilities into a coherent whole called a frame of discernment. Then, using a methodology known as Dempster-Shafer theory, evidence can be evaluated and a basis for decision making can be discerned. The effective use of Dempster-Shafer theory is conceptualized through computer methodology. Once determined to be unsolvable by experts, the methods contained herein have been solved by the author as a visiting professor in Switzerland. The methods are summarized in a research monograph entitled Managing Uncertainty and simplified in this book, along with an appropriate appendix that introduces the methodology. The book is comprised of introductory material followed by appropriate examples in essays that can be read in any order determined by the reader’s interests. The essays are based on peer reviewed journal articles presented at technical conferences. The various essays can be addressed in any order as they are adjusted to fit the needs of practicing professionals. Harry Katzan is a professor, author, and consultant, and enjoys outdoor activities.
Managing Uncertainty
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Author : H. Katzan
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 1992-08-01
Managing Uncertainty written by H. Katzan and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
A guide to using the computer to come to terms with the risk, insecurity, and ambivalence that are encountered in businesses in a wide range of fields. Matching management techniques with computational equivalents, shows how to use both conflicting and confirming evidence from independent sources to induce, infer, and predict, in ways that will improve decision making. Includes several programs. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR