Calculating Risks
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The Evaluation Of Risk In Business Investment
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Author : J.C. Hull
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2014-06-28
The Evaluation Of Risk In Business Investment written by J.C. Hull and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Provides finance specialists in industry and students of management with a comprehensive set of practical procedures for evaluating the total risk in the major capital investment decisions facing a business. It discusses in detail how companies can make effective use of sensitivity analyses, risk simulations and other techniques, and deals in depth with important issues, such as: How should the results of a sensitivity analysis be interpreted?; How can adequate subjective probability distributions be obtained? How can dependencies between variables be dealt with in a practical way?; The emphasis throughout is on 'how to do it' and the reader needs only a slight knowledge of statistics. A particularly important feature of the book is the FORTRAN subroutines in Appendices A and B which the author prepared for calculating risk evaluations
Calculating Risks
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Author : James Hamilton
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1999
Calculating Risks written by James Hamilton and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
"By matching agency decision data to detailed census information using geographic information systems (GIS) technology, the authors show that most hazardous waste sites do not pose sufficient risk to merit the most stringent cleanup options. Those sites that do pose considerable risk to exposed populations often receive inadequate attention, because government decisions to target cleanups are based more on political factors than on actual risks. The authors propose policy reforms that could significantly reduce cleanup costs without sacrificing the protection of human health."--BOOK JACKET.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2015-11-10
Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-10 with Social Science categories.
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Measuring Operational And Reputational Risk
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Author : Aldo Soprano
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2010-12-03
Measuring Operational And Reputational Risk written by Aldo Soprano and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-03 with Business & Economics categories.
How to apply operational risk theory to real-life banking data Modelling Operational and Reputational Risks shows practitioners the best models to use in a given situation, according to the type of risk an organization is facing. Based on extensive applied research on operational risk models using real bank datasets, it offers a wide range of various testing models and fitting techniques for financial practitioners. With this book, professionals will have a foundation for measuring and predicting these important intangibles. Aldo Soprano (Madrid, Spain) is Group Head of operational risk management at UniCredit Group.
Calculated Risks
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Author : Maher Asaad Baker
language : en
Publisher: Maher Asaad Baker
Release Date : 2023-12-01
Calculated Risks written by Maher Asaad Baker and has been published by Maher Asaad Baker this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In CALCULATED RISKS, you will embark on a journey of self-discovery as you learn to evaluate uncertainties and seize opportunities properly. This book reveals the analytical thought processes, research methods, contingency planning, and risk mitigation strategies used by entrepreneurs, executives, and everyday individuals to make carefully considered choices and achieve meaningful success, even in turbulent times. Discover how to shift your thinking from impulsive decision-making based on fleeting feelings, to making strategic, evidence-backed bets on your future after rigorously examining all possible pros and cons. Learn to challenge limiting assumptions, think several moves ahead, and develop the wisdom to differentially manage risk versus reward. Walk in the footsteps of visionaries who transformed industries by calculating probabilities and weighing potential outcomes before taking a chance. By applying the frameworks in these pages, you will gain the confidence to pursue your boldest ambitions and navigate triumphs and setbacks, always with an eye towards long-term prosperity. CALCULATED RISKS guides strategic risk-taking in business, career, relationships, and life.
The Fundamentals Of Risk Measurement
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Author : Christopher Marrison
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2002-06-27
The Fundamentals Of Risk Measurement written by Christopher Marrison and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-06-27 with Business & Economics categories.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: The Basics of Risk Management This chapter introduces how banks work. It describes how they make money, how they often lose money, and how they try to manage their losses. It includes thirteen short case studies showing how banks have lost money. Chapter 2: Risk Measurement at the Corporate Level: Economic Capital and RAROC Chapter Two discusses the meaning of capital and how the risks that a bank faces are related to the amount of capital that the bank should hold. It then describes the two fundamental building blocks of integrated risk measurement: Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC). Chapter 3: Review of Statistics Chapter Three is useful for those readers who do not have a recent working knowledge of statistics. It reviews the statistical relationships that are commonly used in risk measurement and provides reference material for the rest of the book. Examples are provided using financial loss data. MARKET RISK SECTION Chapter 4: Background on Traded Instruments This chapter gives an overview of the main types of traded instruments: bonds, equities and derivatives. It gives a qualitative description of the instrument, examples of calculating the instrument’s value and the basic risk metrics such as duration and the Greeks. This chapter is useful for those readers who are new to the finance industry. Chapter 5: Market Risk Measurement This chapter describes the most common ways to measure market risks: Sensitivity analysis, Stress testing, Scenario testing, Sharpe Ratio and Value at Risk. It gives detailed examples of using each of the metrics. Chapter 6: The Three Common Approaches for Calculating Value at Risk Value at Risk (VaR) has become the standard approach for measuring market risk. This chapter is devoted to explaining the details of the three common approaches to calculating VaR: Parametric VaR, Historical VaR and Monte Carlo VaR. We work though increasingly complex examples and compare the strengths of each approach. (Note: many readers will be particularly interested in this chapter because the name “VaR” is well known and has a certain mystery) Chapter 7: Value at Risk Contribution The Value at Risk Contribution (VaRC) is a useful way of pinpointing the source of the portfolio’s risk. VaRC can break down the risk by instrument, trading desk or market risk factor. Examples are given for several types of VaRC. Chapter 8: Testing VaR Results to Ensure Proper Risk Measurement This chapter discusses the procedures required by regulators to backtest VaR calculators to check that their predictions of losses are consistent with market events. Chapter 9: Calculating Capital for Market Risk VaR is used as the basis for calculating both Regulatory Capital and Economic Capital for Market Risks. In this chapter VaR also extended to measure the risk of Asset Management operations. Chapter 10: Overcoming VaR Limitations Although VaR is the best single metric for market risks, is has several limitations. The limitations and typical solutions are discussed in this chapter. Chapter 11: The Management of Market Risk This chapter concludes the market risk section by describing how the results of risk measurement are used by management to identify the sources of risk. It also describes the process of setting VaR Limits. (Note: readers should be particularly interested in VaR Limits because it is difficult and an important element in controlling a bank’s risk). ASSET/LIABILITY MANGEMENT SECTION Chapter 12: Introduction to Asset Liability Management Asset Liability Management (ALM) is primarily concerned with the interest rate and liquidity risks that are created when commercial banks take in short term deposits from customers and give out long term loans. This chapter describes how those risks arise and the risk characteristics of different types of deposits and loans. Chapter 13: Measurement of Interest Rate Risk for ALM This chapter discussed the primary techniques used to measure interest rate risk: Gap reports, Rate shift scenarios and Simulations Chapter 14: Funding Liquidity Risk in ALM The measurement of liquidity risk is broken into three groups: expected, unusual and crisis events. Measurement techniques are given for each group. Chapter 15: Funds Transfer Pricing and the Management of ALM Risks A key use of asset/liability measurement is the calculation of the fair price at which funds should be lent from one department to another within a bank. This is one of the keys to integrated risk measurement and is a critical component in measuring risk-adjusted profitability and setting prices to customers. A typical balance sheet is used to illustrate how transfer pricing works in detail. CREDIT RISK SECTION Chapter 16: Introduction to Credit Risk This chapter discusses the sources of credit risk and how measurement is used to manage the risks Chapter 17: Types of Credit Structure For readers who are unfamiliar with lending operations, we discuss the ways that credit exposures are structured in commercial and retail lending. It also describes the calculation of credit exposure for derivatives trading operations and gives an overview of credit derivatives. Chapter 18: Risk Measurement for a Single Facility This chapter shows how the Expected Loss and Unexpected Loss for a loan can be calculated from the Probability of Default, Loss In the Event of Default, Exposure at Default and the Grade Migration Matrix. Chapter 19: Estimating Parameter Values for Single Facilities One of the main difficulties in credit risk measurement is the estimation of values for Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Exposure at Default. This chapter discusses estimation techniques such as Discriminant Analysis and the Merton Model. It also gives parameter values that can be used as the basis for the reader’s own models. The parameter values are used in examples to demonstrate how the credit risk calculations are used. Chapter 20: Risk Measurement For A Credit Portfolio: Part One To estimate the overall risk for a portfolio many credit instruments, we must examine the correlation between losses. This chapter describes the Covariance Credit Portfolio Model and the different approaches available for estimating default correlations. It also describes how the correlations can be used to estimate the Unexpected Loss Contribution and the Economic Capital for a single facility within a portfolio. Chapter 21: Risk Measurement For A Credit Portfolio: Part Two This chapter describes the four other widely used approaches for estimating the risk of credit portfolios: the actuarial model, the Merton-based simulation model, the macro economic default model and the macro economic cashflow model used for structured and project finance. It concludes with a section describing how the models can be combined in a unified framework to create an integrated simulation of all the bank’s risks Chapter 22: Risk Adjusted Performance and Pricing for Loans Knowing the economic capital for a loan, this chapter shows how to calculate the minimum price that should be charged to a loan customer. The analysis shows how to include multi-year effects such as grade migration. Illustrative examples are included. (Note: this chapter should be of interest to readers because loan pricing is another difficult and important subject that is rarely discussed in other books) Chapter 23: Regulatory Capital for Credit Risk The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (often called the BIS) is planning fundamental changes to the way that banks must calculate the capital that they hold. The new calculations will be very similar to the calculations described in the rest of this book for economic capital. This chapter summarizes the history of the Capital Accords then compares the different approaches that the BIS will allow. It also gives a standard plan for implementing the new Accords. (Note: this should be of interest to readers because the shift to BIS measurement is of major importance, it will be difficult for most banks, and it must be completed by 2005) OPERATING RISK SECTION Chapter 24: Operating risk The quantification of Operating Risks is on the frontier of the industry’s understanding of risk measurement. The risk estimation approaches can be categorized as either qualitative, structural or actuarial. These approaches are described including Key Risk Indicators and the BIS approaches. INTEGRATED RISK SECTION Chapter 25: Inter-risk Diversification and Bank-Level RAROC This chapter describes how all the models are linked to calculate Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Profitability for the Bank as a whole. It concludes with of the steps normally required to implement the bank-wide measurement of Economic Capital and RAROC.pital and RAROC.
Calculating Political Risk
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Author : Catherine Althaus
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-11-26
Calculating Political Risk written by Catherine Althaus and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Calculating Political Risk is rich and illuminating, and much more than a political science treatise. Althaus draws on diverse literature, extensive interviews and intriguing case studies to offer interdisciplinary, practical and nuanced insight. This book provides new perspectives and more precise language for making sense of a critical dimension of politics, policy-making and public management. Evert Lindquist, Director and Professor, School of Public Administration, University of Victoria, Canada This powerful new book is the first ever examination of the hard edge of how political risk - something faced by all political actors innumerable times every day - is calculated and used in decision-making. It opens with an outline of the historical and linguistic origins of risk, the various disciplinary understandings of risk, the risk society concept, and how risk has come to be so prominent in the context of environmental disaster and terrorism. The book then defines political risk and looks at its manifestations in the public sector, from project to high-level political risk. It also looks at risk identification versus risk management and compares the concept of political risk with the private sector practice of risk management. Unique research findings from interviews with over 100 risk practitioners and politicians provide a detailed look at how political actors calculate political risk. Case study-based chapters look in-depth at neat and discrete examples: risk calculation in state development plans in Australia; political risk identification and management in the UK during the mad cow crisis; and US government risk calculation in the post-September 11 context. The final chapters draw together the experiences and lessons learned from the case studies and practitioner insights to formulate a better understanding of what political risk is and what its calculation means in political practice. The author shows how political risk calculation provides a fresh perspective on policy analysis and identifies how political risk is relevant to a broader understanding of politics and political science, as well as policy formulation and implementation on the ground.
Calculated Risk
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Author : Bruce S. Pyenson
language : en
Publisher: Jossey-Bass
Release Date : 1995-03-01
Calculated Risk written by Bruce S. Pyenson and has been published by Jossey-Bass this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-03-01 with Medical categories.
From specialization to fully integrated networks, Calculated Risk will help providers develop risk management strategies that concentrate on the provider's financial risk as it relates to payment for health care, including: controlling and allocating variable and fixed costs; managing how care is delivered and by whom; complying with health care financing regulations; and more.
Calculating Political Risk
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Author : Catherine Althaus
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-11-26
Calculating Political Risk written by Catherine Althaus and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Calculating Political Risk is rich and illuminating, and much more than a political science treatise. Althaus draws on diverse literature, extensive interviews and intriguing case studies to offer interdisciplinary, practical and nuanced insight. This book provides new perspectives and more precise language for making sense of a critical dimension of politics, policy-making and public management. Evert Lindquist, Director and Professor, School of Public Administration, University of Victoria, Canada This powerful new book is the first ever examination of the hard edge of how political risk - something faced by all political actors innumerable times every day - is calculated and used in decision-making. It opens with an outline of the historical and linguistic origins of risk, the various disciplinary understandings of risk, the risk society concept, and how risk has come to be so prominent in the context of environmental disaster and terrorism. The book then defines political risk and looks at its manifestations in the public sector, from project to high-level political risk. It also looks at risk identification versus risk management and compares the concept of political risk with the private sector practice of risk management. Unique research findings from interviews with over 100 risk practitioners and politicians provide a detailed look at how political actors calculate political risk. Case study-based chapters look in-depth at neat and discrete examples: risk calculation in state development plans in Australia; political risk identification and management in the UK during the mad cow crisis; and US government risk calculation in the post-September 11 context. The final chapters draw together the experiences and lessons learned from the case studies and practitioner insights to formulate a better understanding of what political risk is and what its calculation means in political practice. The author shows how political risk calculation provides a fresh perspective on policy analysis and identifies how political risk is relevant to a broader understanding of politics and political science, as well as policy formulation and implementation on the ground.
Reckoning With Risk
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2003-04-24
Reckoning With Risk written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-24 with Mathematics categories.
"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New Scientist However much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.