Commodity Price Shocks And Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies In Commodity Exporting Small Open Economies
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Commodity Price Shocks And Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies In Commodity Exporting Small Open Economies
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Author : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-02-13
Commodity Price Shocks And Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies In Commodity Exporting Small Open Economies written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the autorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.
Commodity Prices And Markets
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Author : Takatoshi Ito
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2011-03
Commodity Prices And Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model For Small Open Economies
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Author : Camila Casas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-22
Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model For Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Inflation Dynamics In South Africa
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Author : Eliphas Ndou
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-02-21
Inflation Dynamics In South Africa written by Eliphas Ndou and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
Research Bulletin June 2014
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-06-09
Research Bulletin June 2014 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries
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Author : Mr. Marco Airaudo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-08
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr. Marco Airaudo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-24
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Toward An Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2020-10-08
Toward An Integrated Policy Framework written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
An Empirical Assessment Of The Exchange Rate Pass Through In Mozambique
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-06
An Empirical Assessment Of The Exchange Rate Pass Through In Mozambique written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Monetary And Currency Policy Management In Asia
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Author : Masahiro Kawai
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2012-01-01
Monetary And Currency Policy Management In Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.