Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia
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Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia
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Author : Stephen Watts
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia written by Stephen Watts and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with Deterrence (Strategy) categories.
The deterrence of armed conflict has been studied intensively for decades, as have escalation dynamics along the path to such conflicts. The deterrence of forms of aggression below the level of armed conflict-such hostile measures as economic coercion, political subversion, and military intimidation-has received much less attention. In this report, the authors investigate how the United States might use its military posture in Europe (specifically, ground forces) as part of a strategy to deter these Russian malign activities. The authors identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures through signaling the United States' commitment to its allies and partners, providing irregular capabilities for those partners and allies threatened with political subversion, providing conventional capabilities to neutralize hostile powers' coercion attempts, and providing support for other instruments of U.S. power, such as sanctions. However, forward posture can also lead to an escalation in competitor activities, increasing their sense of threat, incentivizing partners to undertake aggression at levels below armed conflict, and incentivizing third parties to act in ways that increase the likelihood of confrontation. The authors propose ways to calibrate U.S. forward posture to minimize such risks while enhancing deterrence.
Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia
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Author : Stephen Watts
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2022-01-20
Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia written by Stephen Watts and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-20 with Political Science categories.
U.S. forward military posture can both deter and provoke armed conflict, and a similar logic pertains below the level of armed conflict. The authors of this report identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures in the competition space below the level of armed conflict through several mechanisms, particularly focusing on the presence of U.S. ground forces.
Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia
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Author : Stephen Baldwin Watts
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Deterrence And Escalation In Competition With Russia written by Stephen Baldwin Watts and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with Deterrence (Strategy) categories.
The deterrence of armed conflict has been studied intensively for decades, as have escalation dynamics along the path to such conflicts. The deterrence of forms of aggression below the level of armed conflict-such hostile measures as economic coercion, political subversion, and military intimidation-has received much less attention. In this report, the authors investigate how the United States might use its military posture in Europe (specifically, ground forces) as part of a strategy to deter these Russian malign activities. The authors identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures through signaling the United States' commitment to its allies and partners, providing irregular capabilities for those partners and allies threatened with political subversion, providing conventional capabilities to neutralize hostile powers' coercion attempts, and providing support for other instruments of U.S. power, such as sanctions. However, forward posture can also lead to an escalation in competitor activities, increasing their sense of threat, incentivizing partners to undertake aggression at levels below armed conflict, and incentivizing third parties to act in ways that increase the likelihood of confrontation. The authors propose ways to calibrate U.S. forward posture to minimize such risks while enhancing deterrence.
Extending Russia
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Author : James Dobbins
language : en
Publisher: RAND
Release Date : 2019-04-11
Extending Russia written by James Dobbins and has been published by RAND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-11 with History categories.
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. It examines Russian vulnerabilities and anxieties; analyzes potential policy options to exploit them; and assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood of successful implementation.
Understanding Russian Strategic Behavior
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Author : Graeme P. Herd
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2022-01-27
Understanding Russian Strategic Behavior written by Graeme P. Herd and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-27 with History categories.
This book examines the extent to which Russia’s strategic behavior is the product of its imperial strategic culture and Putin’s own operational code. The work argues that, by conflating personalistic regime survival with national security, Putin ensures that contemporary Russian national interest, as expressed through strategic behavior, is the synthesis of a peculiar troika: a long-standing imperial strategic culture, rooted in a partially imagined past; the operational code of a counter-intelligence president and decision-making elite; and the realities of Russia as a hybrid state. The book first examines the role of structure and agency in shaping contemporary Russian strategic behavior. It then provides a conceptual understanding of strategic culture, and applies this to Tsarist and Soviet historical developments. The book’s analysis of the operational code, however, demonstrates that Putinism is more than the sum of the past. At the end, the book assesses Putin’s statecraft and stress-tests our assumptions about the exercise of contemporary power in Russia and the structure of Putin’s agency. This book will be of interest to students of Russian politics and foreign policy, strategic studies and international relations.
Escalating Cooperation Nuclear Deterrence And The Us Australia Alliance
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Author : David Santoro
language : en
Publisher: United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney
Release Date : 2019-11-07
Escalating Cooperation Nuclear Deterrence And The Us Australia Alliance written by David Santoro and has been published by United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-07 with Political Science categories.
Australia’s concerns over US extended nuclear deterrence are primarily about entrapment, not abandonment. Still, Australian policymakers are aware that Canberra needs to take on a greater share of the deterrence burden as part of alliance cooperation. Australian policymakers want to better understand the risks associated with greater nuclear cooperation. As they draw on a different Cold War legacy to other US allies, this legacy needs to be properly understood for further cooperation to be possible. Unique among America’s allies, statements about Australia’s understanding of US extended nuclear deterrence commitments are included in its Defence White Papers, but not in joint statements with the United States. Australia and the United States should begin discussing nuclear deterrence at the annual Australia-US Ministerial Consultations communiques to signal alliance cohesion, support its domestic legitimacy and enable more structured strategic dialogue. Both countries should identify where they agree on issues of deterrence, strategic stability and arms control. They should work with like-minded countries to engage China in relevant dialogues; and with Southeast Asian countries to understand and shape their perceptions of the role of deterrence and nuclear weapons in international and regional security. The alliance should consider cooperation in conventional long-range strike to reduce the reliance on nuclear weapons for deterrence and to signal that such cooperation might be expanded in extremis to involve nuclear weapons should Australia’s security environment deteriorate.
Understanding Cyber Conflict
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Author : George Perkovich
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2017-11-01
Understanding Cyber Conflict written by George Perkovich and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-01 with Political Science categories.
Cyber weapons and the possibility of cyber conflict—including interference in foreign political campaigns, industrial sabotage, attacks on infrastructure, and combined military campaigns—require policymakers, scholars, and citizens to rethink twenty-first-century warfare. Yet because cyber capabilities are so new and continually developing, there is little agreement about how they will be deployed, how effective they can be, and how they can be managed. Written by leading scholars, the fourteen case studies in this volume will help policymakers, scholars, and students make sense of contemporary cyber conflict through historical analogies to past military-technological problems. The chapters are divided into three groups. The first—What Are Cyber Weapons Like?—examines the characteristics of cyber capabilities and how their use for intelligence gathering, signaling, and precision striking compares with earlier technologies for such missions. The second section—What Might Cyber Wars Be Like?—explores how lessons from several wars since the early nineteenth century, including the World Wars, could apply—or not—to cyber conflict in the twenty-first century. The final section—What Is Preventing and/or Managing Cyber Conflict Like?—offers lessons from past cases of managing threatening actors and technologies.
Nl Arms Netherlands Annual Review Of Military Studies 2020
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Author : Frans Osinga
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-12-03
Nl Arms Netherlands Annual Review Of Military Studies 2020 written by Frans Osinga and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-03 with Law categories.
This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
Conventional Deterrence
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Author : John J. Mearsheimer
language : en
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Release Date : 1983
Conventional Deterrence written by John J. Mearsheimer and has been published by Cornell University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with History categories.
Conventional Deterrence is a book about the origins of war. Why do nations faced with the prospect of large-scale conventional war opt for or against an offensive strategy? John J. Mearsheimer examines a number of crises that led to major conventional wars to explain why deterrence failed. He focuses first on Allied and German decision making in the years 1939-1940, analyzing why the Allies did not strike first against Germany after declaring war and, conversely, why the Germans did attack the West. Turning to the Middle East, he examines the differences in Israeli and Egyptian strategic doctrines prior to the start of the major conventional conflicts in that region. Mearsheimer then critically assays the relative strengths and weaknesses of NATO and the Warsaw Pact to determine the prospects for conventional deterrence in any future crisis. He is also concerned with examining such relatively technical issues as the impact of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on conventional deterrence and the debate over maneuver versus attrition warfare. Mearsheimer pays considerable attention to questions of military strategy and tactics. Challenging the claim that conventional detrrence is largely a function of the numerical balance of forces, he also takes issue with the school of thought that ascribes deterrence failures to the dominance of "offensive" weaponry. In addition to examining the military consideration underlying deterrence, he also analyzes the interaction between those military factors and the broader political considerations that move a nation to war.
The New Calculus Of Escalation
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Author : Martin C. Libicki
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2025-05-02
The New Calculus Of Escalation written by Martin C. Libicki and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-02 with Political Science categories.
A reevaluation of conflict thresholds in the context of complex cyber, conventional, and nuclear war The return of great power competition has renewed concerns about managing escalation, lest a minor crisis inadvertently spiral into nuclear war. This has become apparent during the war between Russia and Ukraine, as Western aid for Ukraine has been predicated on avoiding Russian escalation. The New Calculus of Escalation updates our understanding of conflict escalation dynamics for the twenty-first century with the goal of reducing the possibility of a catastrophic war. To improve mutual understanding among states, Libicki rethinks conflict thresholds and exit ramps that manage escalation. During the Cold War, there were two critical thresholds—one between peace and war, and one between conventional war and nuclear war. But ongoing developments in cyber and other advanced military technologies threaten command and control and blur the old thresholds. Military strategists, international relations scholars, and graduate students will benefit from this book's cogent analytic framework in shaping future debates.