Dollar Invoicing Global Value Chains And The Business Cycle Dynamics Of International Trade
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Dollar Invoicing Global Value Chains And The Business Cycle Dynamics Of International Trade
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Author : Mr. David Cook
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-02-11
Dollar Invoicing Global Value Chains And The Business Cycle Dynamics Of International Trade written by Mr. David Cook and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and ultimate destination of value added and the intermediate shipments involved. For example, the model shows that in response to a dollar appreciation triggered by a US interest rate increase, direct bilateral trade between non-US countries contracts more than global value chain oriented trade which feeds US final demand, and exports to the US decline much more when measured in gross as opposed to value added terms. We use granular data on GVCs at the sector level to document empirical evidence in favor of these key predictions of the model.
Dollar Invoicing Global Value Chains And The Business Cycle Dynamics Of International Trade
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Author : David Cook
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Dollar Invoicing Global Value Chains And The Business Cycle Dynamics Of International Trade written by David Cook and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Global Trade And The Dollar
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Author : Ms.Emine Boz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-13
Global Trade And The Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
The Inflexible Structure Of Global Supply Chains
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Author : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-13
The Inflexible Structure Of Global Supply Chains written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The rise of global supply chains has had profound effects on individual economies and the global trading system, thereby complicating standard macroeconomic analyses. For many of the new and challenging questions brought about by this phenomenon, such as its impact on the global business cycle and measurements of competitiveness, the answer largely depends on one specific aspect of global value chains: how easily they can re-configure in response to changes in prices. We propose a parsimonious, generalized specification to test the degree of global-supply-chain flexibility. Our estimates show that, in the short run, the production structure is highly inflexible, and that this rigidity has, if anything, risen over time as supply chains have deepened over time. This finding is robust to alternative price measures, including those that account for the U.S. dollar’s outsized role in trade through invoicing. While in the long run all estimated elasticities rise, supply chains remain somewhat inflexible. Our results have implications for analyses of cross-country business-cycle dynamics, the propagation of sectoral shocks, and the measurement of international competitiveness.
Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model For Small Open Economies
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Author : Camila Casas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-22
Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model For Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
World Development Report 2020
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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-11-19
World Development Report 2020 written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
Integrating Smes Into Global Value Chains
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Author : ADBI
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Integrating Smes Into Global Value Chains written by ADBI and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Business & Economics categories.
Globalized production networks, or global value chains, provide an opportunity for SMEs to upscale their business models and to grow across borders. This process can enhance SME competitiveness, create more jobs, and promote inclusive growth in developing Asia. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the ADB Institute (ADBI) recognize the importance of integrating SMEs into global value chains. To provide pathways for such integration, this study examines ways of encouraging participation in value chains, and explores policy solutions to address the financial and nonfinancial barriers faced by these enterprises.
Asia And Global Production Networks
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Author : Benno Ferrarini
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2014-10-31
Asia And Global Production Networks written by Benno Ferrarini and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
This timely book deploys new tools and measures to understand how global production networks change the nature of global economic interdependence, and how that in turn changes our understanding of which policies are appropriate in this new environment.
The Exchange Rate International Trade And The Balance Of Payments
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Author : Reserve Bank of Australia. Economic Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
The Exchange Rate International Trade And The Balance Of Payments written by Reserve Bank of Australia. Economic Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Balance of payments categories.
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-24
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.