Estimating The International Tourism Demand For Egypt

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Estimating The International Tourism Demand For Egypt

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Author : Shereen Adel Hassan Nosier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012

Estimating The International Tourism Demand For Egypt written by Shereen Adel Hassan Nosier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.

The thesis aims to identify the main factors that significantly affect tourism demand for Egypt. Both time series data and panel data are used to model and forecast tourism demand for Egypt from all origins, as well as three individual regions of origin, including Europe, Arab and the Americas. The methodological and econometric approaches introduced in this thesis proceed from the simple to the more complex structure to obtain more reliable estimation. First, we estimate tourism demand for Egypt using the co-integration and error correction (CI/ECM) approach based on a single equation, followed by using a system of equations approach over the period 1970-2009. All the estimated econometric methods, in addition to two univariate time series methods, are used to generate ex-post forecasting for all the models over the period 2005-2009. The preferred method is used in producing ex-ante forecasting of future tourism demand for Egypt for the period 2010-2014. Panel co-integration techniques are also used to estimate tourism demand models over the period 1980-2009. Finally, the causality relationship between tourism demand and its economic determinants is estimated based on panel data analysis, which may provide more guidance for policy makers in Egypt. The results indicate that tourism demand for Egypt is found to be co-integrated with its fundamental determinants at the 1% significance level, with a high adjustment speed toward the steady state equilibrium. The importance of long-run income for all tourists from different nationalities is affirmed; with an elastic demand for non-Arab tourists. Price is also an important determinant, with a different effect in each originating region. It takes less than unity value for all tourists, except the Arab. Tunisia is found to be the most significant alternative to Egypt, with a complementary effect for Europe and the Americas tourists, but substitutability effect for Arab tourists. Hotel capacity is a significant and positive factor for all nationalities, except the Americas. Globalization is important in all models; it has a positive effect for all non-Arab nationalities. Political instability has a significant and negative effect, with the most effect on the Americas. All the determinants Granger cause tourist arrivals in the long run, but globalization and hotel capacity are of great importance with a bidirectional effect with tourist arrivals. Ex-post forecasting results show that the CI/ECMs outperform the other time series methods and produce highly accurate forecasts. The number of arrivals and nights from all origin markets is likely to increase in absolute terms (2010-2014), but with slower growth than recent trend.

The Determinants Of International Tourism Demand For Egypt

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Author : M. Ibrahim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013

The Determinants Of International Tourism Demand For Egypt written by M. Ibrahim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.

Tourism industry has been an important contributor to the Egyptian economy. Egypt is one of the most important tourist destinations in the Middle East and North Africa. The purpose of this study is to recognize the main determinants of the international tourism flows to Egypt. The annual panel data set includes the number of tourist arrivals from most important generating countries during the period 1990-2008, and a number of possible explanatory variables.

Covid 19 And The Egyptian Economy Estimating The Impacts Of Expected Reductions In Tourism Suez Canal Revenues And Remittances

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Author : Breisinger, Clemens
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-04-01

Covid 19 And The Egyptian Economy Estimating The Impacts Of Expected Reductions In Tourism Suez Canal Revenues And Remittances written by Breisinger, Clemens and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-01 with Political Science categories.

Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.

An Econometric Model Forecasting Egypt S Aggregate International Tourism Demand And Revenues

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Author : Ahmed A. Zaki
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008

An Econometric Model Forecasting Egypt S Aggregate International Tourism Demand And Revenues written by Ahmed A. Zaki and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.

Egypt is one of the most important tourist destinations worldwide; it receives millions of visitors every year. Consequently, Tourism forecasting and planning are vital in maintaining and managing this flow of visitors. Hence, it is imperative for policymakers in both the public and private tourism sectors in Egypt to examine tourist arrival patterns, and to generate forecasts for such industry. The objective of this paper is to forecast the performance of the tourism industry in Egypt until the year 2017. The main factors affecting such performance are the deficiency in exploiting human capital efficiently, ineffective marketing campaigns, and lack of strategies to enhance Egypt's image. This study examines the aggregate tourism demand function for Egypt using the time series data for the period 1982-2006. An ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) model is applied as an efficient tool to forecast the future values of dependent variables (international tourism arrivals and revenues); and its relationship with the above-mentioned independent ones; until the year 2017.

Econometrics Of Risk

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Author : Van-Nam Huynh
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-12-15

Econometrics Of Risk written by Van-Nam Huynh and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

International Tourism Demand In Tunisia

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Author : Amira Gasmi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

International Tourism Demand In Tunisia written by Amira Gasmi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.

The purpose of this paper is to identify and study the main determinants of international tourism demand with special reference to Tunisia over the period 1994-2012. The empirical study is based on estimations of GMM dynamic panel data model. Using a sample of 47 generating countries, empirical results show that consumer loyalty is a key determinant for foreign tourism demand in Tunisia. Estimated prices elasticities suggest that Tunisian tourism is surprisingly considered by foreigners as a luxury service and provide evidence that Tunisia and Morocco are substitute destinations. According to the supply induced demand theory, our investigation reveals that Tunisia is able to boost international tourism flows by promoting the tourism supply especially the accommodation capacity and the air supply.

Estimation Of Tourism Demand For Turkey

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Author : Çiğdem Say
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Estimation Of Tourism Demand For Turkey written by Çiğdem Say and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Tourism categories.

Egypt Energy And The Environment

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Author : Tarek H. Selim
language : en
Publisher: Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd
Release Date : 2009-07-31

Egypt Energy And The Environment written by Tarek H. Selim and has been published by Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-07-31 with Reference categories.

Pure environmentalism and pure resource exploitation can be integrated together to form an encompassing sustainability solution. This is the main message of this book based on an innovative "e;structure-concentration-incentives"e; methodology applied to Egypt. This methodology provides a basis for achieving environmental sustainability based on endogenous source-driven forces of change in contrast to the traditional effects-dominant oriented approach. Though the book's methodology could be used as a framework of analysis in environmental sustainability research for any developing country, Egypt provides a rich case study because of its historical, socio-economic, and political constructs. Sustainable development is generally seen as a tradeoff between resource efficiency and social equity such that total resource essentials in society can become sustainable in the long run in a manner that meets the needs of current generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Environmental sustainability cannot be implemented without the direct inclusion of structure (form), concentration (effect), and incentives (drivers) as critical policy choices because: (1) they constitute a necessary condition in any country's path towards sustainable development, (2) they must be implemented simultaneously as a target and constraint, and (3) they require social and political sacrifice complemented by endogenous-based systems in contrast to authoritarian solutions. Egypt, Energy and the Environment presents research on Egypt's energy and environmental resources from multidisciplinary perspectives. It offers sustainability solutions to many of the country's problems relating to energy, pollution, water, gender, wildlife, politics, economics, management, ecology, and information technology. The book's method of analysis can be applied to other developing countries as well.

Tourism Demand In Lebanon

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Author : Marwan Emile Matar
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997

Tourism Demand In Lebanon written by Marwan Emile Matar and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with categories.

This study starts with a quick historical overview of the performance of the tourism sector in the Lebanese economy. The pre-war situation and the post-war results form the first chapter of this thesis. The introductory chapter is followed by the economic theory of tourism stating the most important determinants of tourism demand such as price factors, exchange rates, advertising and marketing, cost of transportation from generating to host countries and some dummy variables to account for special events mainly social unrest, sports activities... Chapter HI is dedicated to the different econometric techniques that are internationally used for the estimation and forecasting of tourism demand with then-respective limitations. A brief introduction on auto-regression demand analysis, and input output matrix is followed by the problems arising from the lack of data and the use of improper substitutes to account for the unavailability of information with all the corresponding problem ( auto correlation.. ). In this chapter, a simple model designed for the estimation of the Lebanese tourism demand derived from a model for the estimation of the Turkish tourism demand is used Finally, the available potentials for a prosperous tourism industry in the World, the Middle East and Lebanon in particular will be discussed, with some recommendations from the World Tourism Organization - in its master plan for tourism in Lebanon 95-96 - that, if properly interpreted and implemented, will lead us back to our pole position in the region, or in other words, to our pre-war situation where tourism accounted for 20% of our GDP.

The Report Egypt 2007

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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Oxford Business Group
Release Date :

The Report Egypt 2007 written by and has been published by Oxford Business Group this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.