Expert Judgment And Decision Making
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Expert Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : Pasquale De Marco
language : en
Publisher: Pasquale De Marco
Release Date : 2025-07-12
Expert Judgment And Decision Making written by Pasquale De Marco and has been published by Pasquale De Marco this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-07-12 with Psychology categories.
In an era characterized by uncertainty and complexity, expert judgment and decision-making have emerged as vital tools for navigating the challenges of the modern world. This comprehensive book delves into the captivating realm of expert decision-making, exploring the cognitive processes, biases, and models that shape how experts make judgments and arrive at conclusions. Throughout its pages, readers will embark on a journey to understand the foundations of expert judgment and decision-making, unraveling the intricacies of cognitive biases and their impact on expert decision-making. They will delve into the diverse models that attempt to explain how experts make judgments and decisions, examining their strengths, limitations, and applicability in different contexts. Ethical considerations in expert judgment and decision-making are meticulously examined, emphasizing the importance of transparency, accountability, and conflict of interest management. The book ventures into the art of communication and collaboration, exploring strategies for facilitating effective communication among experts and fostering teamwork in decision-making processes. The significance of evaluating and measuring expert judgment and decision-making is underscored, discussing methods for assessing the quality of expert decisions and the challenges associated with such evaluations. The book also ventures into the practical applications of expert judgment and decision-making across various domains, highlighting real-world examples and case studies that illustrate the profound impact of expertise in decision-making. As we peer into the future of expert judgment and decision-making, we encounter emerging challenges and exciting possibilities. The book examines the implications of artificial intelligence and machine learning, exploring how these technologies are transforming the landscape of decision-making and investigating the evolving role of expert judgment in human-machine collaboration. It confronts the ethical challenges posed by AI and big data, emphasizing the need for responsible and ethical decision-making in an increasingly complex and interconnected world. This book is an invaluable resource for students, scholars, practitioners, and anyone seeking to understand the intricacies of expert judgment and decision-making. It offers a comprehensive examination of the field, providing a deeper appreciation for the complexities and nuances of this critical aspect of human cognition and behavior. If you like this book, write a review!
Expert Judgment And Expert Systems
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Author : Jeryl L. Mumpower
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Expert Judgment And Expert Systems written by Jeryl L. Mumpower and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Computers categories.
This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.
Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : Terry Connolly
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2000
Judgment And Decision Making written by Terry Connolly and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Education categories.
This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Author : Anca M. Hanea
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment
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Author : Mary A. Meyer
language : en
Publisher: SIAM
Release Date : 2001-01-01
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and has been published by SIAM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-01-01 with Mathematics categories.
Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Research On Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : William M. Goldstein
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1997-06-13
Research On Judgment And Decision Making written by William M. Goldstein and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-06-13 with Education categories.
This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field that investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on "connections" explore memory, explanation and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on "controversies" presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field. Students and researchers in psychology who have an interest in cognitive processes will find this text to be rewarding reading.
The Wiley Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making 2 Volume Set
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Author : Gideon Keren
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-02-16
The Wiley Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making 2 Volume Set written by Gideon Keren and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-16 with Psychology categories.
A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes
Expert Judgment In Project Management
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Author : Paul S. Szwed
language : en
Publisher: Project Management Institute
Release Date : 2016-04-01
Expert Judgment In Project Management written by Paul S. Szwed and has been published by Project Management Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.
Uncertainty Modelling In Knowledge Engineering And Decision Making Proceedings Of The 12th International Flins Conference Flins 2016
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Author : Xianyi Zeng
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2016-07-14
Uncertainty Modelling In Knowledge Engineering And Decision Making Proceedings Of The 12th International Flins Conference Flins 2016 written by Xianyi Zeng and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-14 with Computers categories.
FLINS, originally an acronym for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended to include Computational Intelligence for applied research. The contributions to the 12th of FLINS conference cover state-of-the-art research, development, and technology for computational intelligence systems, both from the foundations and the applications points-of-view.
The Social Psychology Of Expertise
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Author : Harald A. Mieg
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2001-06
The Social Psychology Of Expertise written by Harald A. Mieg and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Mieg's book, in our LEA Expertise series, will cover the issues of expertise and relate them to experts' roles in psychology, organizational studies, and sociology.