Failing Intelligence
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Failing Intelligence
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Author : Brian Jones
language : en
Publisher: Biteback Publishing
Release Date : 2010
Failing Intelligence written by Brian Jones and has been published by Biteback Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Great Britain categories.
The first book on Iraq by a British intelligence official involved in the process that led to the 2003 invasion.
Why Secret Intelligence Fails
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Author : Michael A. Turner
language : en
Publisher: Potomac Books, Inc.
Release Date : 2011-07
Why Secret Intelligence Fails written by Michael A. Turner and has been published by Potomac Books, Inc. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07 with Political Science categories.
Michael Turner argues that the root causes of failures in American intelligence can be found in the way it is organized and in the intelligence process itself. Intelligence that has gone awry affects national decision making and, ultimately, American national security. Intelligence officials are reluctant to talk about intelligence successes, claiming "the secret of our success is the secret of our success." But these officials also shy away from talking about failures, largely because doing so would expose the failings of American intelligence and have an impact on policy consumers who may become more reluctant to accept and act on the intelligence they receive. Rather than focusing on case studies, the book takes a holistic approach, beginning with structural issues and all dysfunctions that emanate from them. Turner explores each step of the intelligence cycle--priority setting, intelligence collection, analysis, production, and dissemination--to identify the "inflection points" within each stage that contribute to intelligence failures. Finally, he examines a variety of plans that, if implemented, would reduce the likelihood of intelligence failures. While examining the causes of intelligence failures, Turner also explores intelligence as a critical governmental activity, making the book an excellent primer on secret intelligence. Turner writes in jargon-free prose for the informed reader interested in foreign policy and national security policy matters and brings enough depth to his subject that even experts will find this a must-read.
Historical Dictionary Of Intelligence Failures
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Author : Glenmore S. Trenear-Harvey
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2014-11-20
Historical Dictionary Of Intelligence Failures written by Glenmore S. Trenear-Harvey and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-20 with Political Science categories.
An Intelligence failure can be defined where there was intelligence available about a particular event, but either it was not collected or was mishandled later in the assessment cycle, as opposed to the failure of an intelligence operation. The Historical Dictionary of Intelligence Failures covers the history of intelligence failures through a chronology, an introductory essay, an extensive bibliography, and over 100 cross-referenced dictionary entries on the Ardennes Offensive, the Six Day War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Prague Spring, the Arab Spring, 9/11. This book is an excellent access point for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more about the intelligence industry.
Why Intelligence Fails
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Author : Robert Jervis
language : en
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Release Date : 2010-12-15
Why Intelligence Fails written by Robert Jervis and has been published by Cornell University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-15 with Political Science categories.
The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations—analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind—were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.
Intelligence Success And Failure
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Author : Uri Bar-Joseph
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2017
Intelligence Success And Failure written by Uri Bar-Joseph and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Political Science categories.
Machine generated contents note: -- Contents -- Introduction -- Part One: The Theoretical Framework -- Chapter I. Surprise Attack: A Framework for Discussion -- Chapter II. Examining the Learning Process -- Part Two: The Empirical Evidence -- The First Dyad: Barbarossa and the Battle for Moscow -- Case Study I: The Failure -- Case Study II: Success: The Battle for Moscow -- The Second Dyad: The USA in the Korean War -- Case study I: Failing to Forecast the War -- Case Study II: Failure II: The Chinese Intervention of Fall 1950 -- The Third Dyad: Intelligence Failure and Success in the War of Yom Kippur -- Case Study I: The Failure -- Case Study II: The Success -- Chapter VI. Conclusions
Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Failure Of Intelligence
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Author : Melvin Allan Goodman
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Release Date : 2008
Failure Of Intelligence written by Melvin Allan Goodman and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Political Science categories.
The time for serious soul-searching regarding the role of the Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence community in general is long overdue. The recent intelligence failures regarding the unanticipated collapse of the Soviet Union, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the run-up to the Iraq war demonstrate a CIA and a $50 billion intelligence enterprise that cannot provide strategic warning to policymakers and, even worse, is capable of falsifying intelligence to suit political purposes. It will not be possible to reform the enterprise until we understand and debate the nexus between intelligence and policy, the important role of intelligence, and the need for an intelligence agency that is not beholden to political interests. The recent appointment of three general officers to the three most important positions in the intelligence community points to the militarization of overall national security policy, which must be reversed. The military domination of the intelligence cycle makes it more difficult to rebuild strategic intelligence and to provide a check on the Pentagon's influence over foreign policy and the use of force. Failure of Intelligence is designed to inform such a debate and suggest a reform agenda. In this timely and important book, the author offers a provocative mingling of historical description with contemporary political analysis and reform prescription that challenges the conventional wisdom on clandestine collection. The book ultimately and persuasively asserts that the failure to have diplomatic relations has led to the inability to collect intelligence.
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure And Mass Casualty Terrorism
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Author : Thomas Copeland
language : en
Publisher: BRILL
Release Date : 2007-07-30
Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure And Mass Casualty Terrorism written by Thomas Copeland and has been published by BRILL this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-07-30 with Law categories.
This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.
Understanding Intelligence Failure
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Author : James J. Wirtz
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Political Science categories.
This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Problem Of Secret Intelligence
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Author : Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2019-05-03
Problem Of Secret Intelligence written by Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-03 with History categories.
What is intelligence - why is it so hard to define, and why is there no systematic theory of intelligence? Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke creates a new, systematic model of intelligence analysis, arguing that good intelligence is based on understanding the threats that appear beyond our experience, and are therefore the most dangerous to society.